HFCL secured export orders worth ~$72.96 million (₹656.10 crore) for Optical Fiber Cables, to be executed by November 2026. The stock remains at the bottom with nearly 18 crore OI largely on the short side, creating a potential short-squeeze setup as the stock exits F&O after the December series.
MarketScan AI Update
HFCL receives a Buy Signal, supported by heavy short positioning, institutional accumulation, and December-series unwinding pressure.
AI Upside Score: HIGH
Projected upside: 20–30%, with a target range of ₹83–₹90, backed by order inflows and short-squeeze probability.
Key Factors
• Orders align with HFCL’s strengthening export profile, consistent with delivery to a Fortune 100 client.
• HFCL may benefit from the recent rally in Reliance Industries. RIL maintains strategic links to HFCL through past transactions, including a ~5% stake from a 2021 QIP.
• RIL’s 2025 momentum in telecom and green energy could support ecosystem players in optical fibre and 5G infrastructure.
Market Position
HFCL (market cap ~₹10,000 crore) remains a key telecom equipment player with a rising defence and export footprint. 52-week range stands at ₹67.45–₹135.
Risks
PE valuation (~365) signals high growth expectations; F&O exit may induce volatility. Global supply dynamics remain a watch factor.
Outlook
With fresh orders, RIL-linked sector sentiment, and heavy short buildup, December expiry becomes a critical period for potential squeeze-driven upside. Investors should track rollovers and delivery volumes.
