- Friday night closing: Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 444 pts., Nasdaq Composite 443 pts., and S&P 500 100 pts., while GIFT Nifty dropped 291 pts., signalling a negative start for Indian markets on Monday. As per market grapevine, most companies’ Q4 results may remain weak and if the war continues for 30–40 days Q1FY27 may also stay under pressure. This may trigger redemption in equity mutual funds and slowdown in SIPs as investors shift to bank FD, debt funds, PPF and small saving schemes. Nifty 50 may test June 2025 low of 21740. It is better to avoid IPOs until ceasefire is announced as crude surged from $71 to $156 per barrel and gas prices jumped 50–70%.
- Alert: As per market grapevine, if crude prices do not cool, Nifty 50 may break strong support of 22800 before March-end. Investors may prefer PPF over ELSS in March closing. If crude and gas prices remain high for 5–10 days, inflation may surge and negative impact
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson said missile production continues during the war while several Middle East refineries were reportedly attacked. The Indian Rupee hit record low of 93.71 against the US dollar. India may face LNG supply concerns after attacks on Qatar gas facilities and if the war continues Nifty 50 may slip below 22000.
- Sharp hike: Indian Oil Corporation raised industrial fuel prices to Rs.109.59 per litre from Rs.87.67, a steep 25% jump. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Indian Oil Corporation also raised premium petrol prices (HP Power, XP95) by Rs.2 per litre. Oil cargo prices are hitting record highs amid the Iran war, signalling rising inflation.
- War tensions have disrupted global shipping and logistics, delaying raw material imports and project execution. Rising freight and input costs may pressure margins while the Indian Rupee has weakened nearly 3% against the US dollar since West Asia tensions began. Continued weakness may trigger more FII selling and Nifty 50 may test 2025 lows if the war continues for another 10–15 days.
