1. Goldman Sachs On IndiGo
Target Price ₹5200
Earlier Target ₹6000
Recommendation Buy
Believe supply constraints will start to show up over the next few quarters
Expect the debate to shift to the airlines’ ability to control fixed costs and balance sheet strength
Cut FY26/FY27/FY28 estimates sharply to reflect the higher fuel costs and near term weak Middle East traffic
Indigo fits well into the themes of capital preservation and industry consolidation, as they did during COVID
2. HBSC On HDFC Bank
Target Price ₹990
Earlier Target ₹1070
Recommendation Buy
Chairman resignation and second order effects
To us, the resignation HDFC’s Chairman seems a matter of difference of opinion rather than of any governance issues
However, this will likely cause a valuation multiple erosion in our view
To offset this performance metrics need to improve
3. Citi On Oil & Gas
Gas vs. Oil value chains: Diverging disruption paths, Diverging risks
Believe investors should differentiate between the two when assessing the timeline for normalisation
Damage to Qatari LNG facility reinforces view that the gas value chain could face deeper and more prolonged disruption than oil
Citi’s commodities team now expects JKM LNG prices to average $27/mmbtu in Q2CY26E, $16-17/mmbtu through H2CY26E, and $13/mmbtu in CY27E
Extended LNG tightness is a clear, albeit under-appreciated, overhang for Petronet, where we see further downside risk
4. Citi On Oil & Gas
GAIL appears comparatively better positioned
Brent prices could remain elevated at $110-120/bbl in the very near term
Citi anticipates de-escalation within 3-5 weeks, with prices moderating to $70-80/bbl by year-end
OMCs therefore appear near peak stress, with valuations having corrected to 0.9-1.1x P/B
BPCL’s & IOCL’s book value would be relatively more resilient than HPCL’s
5. Citi On Financials
CGSMFI 2.0 – Liquidity Boost for Small/Medium MFIs; Limited direct uplift for large MFIs
70-80% sovereign guarantee reduces expected losses/capital consumption, reopening credit lines
Rs 20000 crore envelope equals over 20% of NBFC-MFI borrowings
Mandatory allocations addresses Q3FY26 borrowings shortfall against disbursements
AUM-linked caps democratize access while curbing concentration
For listed MFIs, Rs 300 cr per-entity ceiling limits direct uplift
Treat this as sector-positive; maximum utilization could generate Rs 8000 crore in borrowings
Key clarification: Are borrowing limits per lender or aggregate?
6. Morgan Stanley on Pharma
GLP-1 Generic Tracker: From niche therapy to mass consumer category
Launch of generic semaglutide marks a shift in India’s GLP-1 market
Will transition from a specialist-driven, premium segment to a mass-market consumer segment
Patent expiry of semaglutide has triggered the entry of about 40 generic players and a 70-80% price drop
As per IQVIA, by FY30 the GLP-1 market in India could scale to Rs 9000 crore
GLP-1 could add 1-2% incremental growth to IPM
FY27 focus for companies will be to establish their brand; margins could thus be low in the initial phase
Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy, given scale and backward integration, are best placed to see market share gains
Cipla’s Yurpeak (tirzepatide) ramp could also surprise on upside
7. Investec On Adani Ports
Target Price ₹1850
Expanding Vizhinjam capacity by >3x to 5.7m TEUs by Dec-28, entailing a capex of >Rs 10000 crore
Aims to capture a significant portion of India’s transhipment volumes
Signed a MoU with BPCL to offer LNG bunkering service at Vizhinjam
Should raise the port’s value proposition and attract transhipment volumes from competing ports
Other than Vizhinjam, also expanding capacities at Mundra, Dhamra, Katupalli, Kandla, Colombo
8. Morgan Stanley on Oil & Gas
See Indian fuel retailers tracking $1.5 billion in monthly losses at $107/bbl Brent
India’s OMCs are buying most oil at Brent-linked pricing (with $5-10+ premiums), including higher Russian crude volumes
Retailers earned EBITDA/bbl above $8/bbl over the past two years, which gives them balance sheet room to absorb losses for another 45 days
Think government will need to cut excise duty, raise fuel prices, or some of both after that
With 5 state/UT elections in April-May, see the potential for fuel price adjustments after the polls, consistent with the pattern of the past five years
See each month of $107/bbl Brent reducing OMCs’ FY27 book value by 3-5%
Refiners have raised premium gasoline and diesel prices by Rs 2.35/litre while IOCL has lifted industrial diesel prices by Rs 22/litre, covering 12-15% of national consumption
9. L&T Says Presence in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, etc in the region – CNBCTV 18
Have 100 sites operating as L&T group, including all the segments
No disruption on 95% of the sites, business as usual
5% of the sites which are suspended or disrupted
Challenge is logistics and supply chain -Supplies From China & Europe disrupted
10.Morgan Stanley on India Energy & Chemical
ONGC – Maintain Overweight; Hike target price to Rs 363 from Rs 299
Oil India – Maintain Overweight; Hike target price to Rs 563 from Rs 455
GAIL – Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight; Cut target price to Rs 150 from Rs 236
Petronet – Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight; Cut target price to Rs 276 from Rs 342
LNG infrastructure damage in Qatar shifts LNG markets from glut to balanced
Makes alternative fuel demand (coal and diesel) move higher against prior estimates
Coal equipment, upstream oil, refiners, fertilisers and specific power producers benefit, while gas producers see consumption slow
Considering the demand sensitivity to gas prices, we downgrade GAIL and Petronet as demand growth remains tepid
Get more constructive upstream oil producers with integrated refining capacity, as global gas prices remain high along with higher oil prices supporting FCF yields
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