Data Watch: 23rd October 2025
- FIIs net long: 18.65%
- VIX: 11.29
- PCR: 0.97
Note:
The biggest development came on the US–India trade deal front. As per reports by Mint, both nations are close to finalizing a long-pending trade agreement under which the US may cut tariffs on Indian imports from the current 50% to around 15–16%.
The deal, focused on energy and agriculture, is also expected to involve India gradually reducing its crude oil imports from Russia.
US President Donald Trump confirmed that he had spoken with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday, with discussions mainly centered around trade and energy. Trump added that Modi assured him India would limit its oil purchases from Russia.
GIFT Nifty was trading 400 points higher, reinforcing our earlier call that the market is heading toward a new all-time high.
If the trade deal materializes, Nifty is expected to rally toward our earlier projected first target of 26,998. This could trigger FOMO among FIIs, potentially leading to revenge buying and strong inflows into Indian equities.
MIDCAP & SMALLCAP WATCH:
Despite the recent rally, midcaps and smallcaps have yet to perform meaningfully. The Nifty Midcap Select index is trading in a tight range of 13,530–12,424 (CMP 13,231). A decisive breakout above 13,530 and sustained close for 2–3 sessions could open the path toward 14,883–15,000 levels.
From a valuation perspective, Nifty Midcap 150 is currently trading at 33.8x vs 44.6x earlier, indicating it remains nearly 32% undervalued.
MARKET OUTLOOK:
The market appears to be gearing up for a strong bull run after almost 1–1.5 years of underperformance. The earnings season has started on a positive note, with most results exceeding expectations.
Valuations have corrected, and FII ownership has fallen to a point where retail and DII holdings now exceed FIIs — setting up the stage for renewed foreign inflows.
As the currency stabilizes, a further pullback is expected, which will likely support equity momentum.
We had boldly stated 2–3 months ago that Nifty had made a bottom and was poised to head toward new all-time highs — a view taken when few believed in that potential.
Now, with the current setup and global tailwinds, Nifty is on the verge of breaking its all-time high, supported by strong technicals and macro cues.
Our first target for Nifty remains 26,998, after which we will review — though this appears to be just the beginning of a larger rally.
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
————————————-xxxxxxx————————————–xxxxxxx———————
Leave A Comment