Market Wrap — Key Headlines & Notes – 27/10/25

Market snapshot

• Derivatives revenue and active trader counts have declined materially after new rules; NSE chair says derivatives revenue down ~40–60% and active monthly traders fell to ~20–22 lakh from 30–40 lakh.
• Gold: historic highs — spot and futures continue to rally; NBFC gold-loan AUM expected to expand 30–35% in FY26 (ICRA).

Top corporate headlines

• Reliance Industries — Brokers upbeat: Nomura/JP Morgan/MS/CLSA see continued momentum across Retail, Jio and O2C; strong capex (~₹400bn in quarter) and new-energy scale-up key near-term catalysts; Jio IPO listing possibility remains a major upside.
• TCS — Management reiterated AI-led transformation and plans for 1 GW datacentre capacity; broker views mixed (Avendus/GS positive; Citi/Credit Suisse cautious) — incremental capex to alter ROCE/FCF profile but positions firm for AI ecosystem.
• Avenue Supermarts (DMart) — Broker views split; HSBC reduces (TP ₹3,700) citing moderating SSSG and elevated opex; Nuvama maintains Buy (TP ₹4,580) expecting robust CWIP and store additions.
• RBL Bank — Reports that Emirates NBD is in advanced talks to acquire majority (>51%) stake; analysts model significant primary capital infusion and potential long-term franchise benefits; valuations and ROE implications depend on deal structure.
• Tata / Tata Group — Ongoing discussions and trustee statements around Tata Sons listing reported; watch governance and trust implications.
• Google — $10bn+ investment announced for 1 GW data-centre cluster in Visakhapatnam; large opportunity for data-centre, power and infra suppliers.

M&A / corporate actions / fundraising

• KRN Heat Exchanger — Acquires Sphere Refrigeration’s bus AC division; full integration of assets & employees.
• Soma Papers — Acquires 100% stake in KS Smart Solutions via share swap; large preferential allotments and significant equity dilution — impact mixed.
• Le Travenues (Ixigo) — Preferential issue to MIH Investments One B.V. for ~₹12,956 crore; MIH to hold ~10.1% and a board seat; EGM on Nov 1.
• Anant Raj — QIP closed; raised ₹1,087 crore at ₹662/share.
• NuvoCo (Vadraj Cement) — Subsidiary to issue up to ₹1,200 crore in CCDs (private placement) to strengthen capital.
• IRB INVIT — QIP launch ~₹3,000 crore with upsize option.

Orders, projects & contract wins

• KPI Green Energy — LOA: 200 MW (AC) solar EPC & O&M at Khavda, Gujarat (~₹696.5 crore); portfolio >845 MWp (DC).
• KPI / Waaree / Waaree Energies — Strong commentary on international demand and US facility ramp-up.
• Welspun Enterprises — Lowest bidder for highway and large water-treatment projects (~₹10,635 crore total); board to consider fundraise via warrants on Oct 15.
• GPT Infraprojects — ₹195 crore conveyor system order (Ivory Coast).
• Subros — ₹27 crore order for locomotive AC equipment (Banaras LW).
• Sterling & Wilson — Arbitration settlement in USA for ~$2.25mn (₹19.95 crore).

Sectoral & strategy notes

• Solar / Renewables — EPC market forecast to grow strongly (23% YoY to ~₹1.7tn by FY28); multiple companies expanding module/cell/manufacturing capacities and winning large EPC awards.
• Auto & Mobility — Festive demand + GST cut boosted volumes; 2-wheeler and tractor segments showing strong recovery; Tata, Eicher, LG, and OEM-related suppliers in focus.
• Banks / Financials — RBI draft ECL / risk-weight changes likely to free up capital; broker reactions emphasize range-bound impacts and beneficiaries (HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis).
• IT / Tech — AI investments and datacentre bets dominate strategy calls (TCS, LTIMindtree, HCL Tech); broker reactions: positive long-term but near-term margin and capex effects differ.
• Insurance — GST reliefs and product mix shifts; SBI Life, HDFC Life and ICICI Prudential commentary and broker TPs noted; VNB margins and APE trends are key.

Earnings & results highlights

• Persistent Systems — Strong quarter; margin expansion and orderbook strength; brokers positive.
• Tech Mahindra — Mixed; deal wins strong but FX and some vertical weakness; brokers vary from Buy to Underweight.
• Dixon — Mixed broker views: Nomura positive on diversification, CLSA more cautious.
• Jain Resources Recycling — Strong Q2 with big YoY and QoQ improvement.
• Quick Heal — Returned to profit in Q2; revenue/margin recovery; management upbeat.
• Many earnings ahead — (see calendar below) — major corporates reporting across 27–31 Oct (Adani group companies, IOC, HDFC group, Tata group names, many industrials and services).

Brokerage & analyst action (selected)

• TCS: Full spectrum of views — from Citi Sell (TP ₹2,800) to Avendus Buy (TP ₹3,700). Key drivers: AI datacentre push, deal wins, restructuring costs.
• Reliance: Broadly positive from Nomura/JPM/MS/CLSA — retail and telecom tailwinds + new-energy capex.
• DMart: Mixed — HSBC cautious (Reduce), Nuvama positive (Buy). SSSG sensitivity remains the valuation lever.
• HDFC Bank / ICICI / AU SFB / IDFC First / Federal: Varied notes — overall banks commentary highlights improving NIMs, deposit dynamics, and ECL/risk-weight regulatory tailwinds; specific TPs across brokers provided above.
• Insurance: SBI Life, HDFC Life, ICICI Prudential — brokers focused on VNB margins, GST/ITC impacts and distribution mix.

Regulatory / macro / global

• US–India trade deal — reports of a potential trade deal with tariff reductions and energy-linked clauses; watch for details and sectoral impact (liquor, consumer goods, chemicals).
• US Fed / FOMC minutes — (Sept 16–17) Fed minutes released — market to digest policy stance.
• OpenAI valuation — reported as very large private valuation (~$500bn) and market commentary on AI investment scale.
• China trade data — Exports +8.3% YoY in Sept; imports +7.4% YoY — signals to global commodity & trade flows.

Risk & event watch

• Regulation: F&O / derivatives rule changes continue to reshape exchange revenues — potential re-pricing of brokerages and exchange business models.
• Earnings season: Watch Q2 results over 27–31 Oct for guidance, margin commentary, and election-related or policy-related impacts.
• Deals / M&A: RBL Bank/ENBD, Le Travenues preferential issue, and other fundraising events could shift bank and tech sector flows.
• Geopolitical: Rare-earths, US–China rhetoric and trade policy remain volatility levers for metals and defence-linked names.

Earnings calendar (selected dates)

• 27 Oct: Adani Energy Solutions, Bata India, IOC, KFinTech, PNB Housing, Tata Investment Co, Waaree Energies, Wipro, Infosys among others.
• 28 Oct: Adani Green, ATGL, CamS, CarTrade, HCLTech, TVS Motor, Tata Capital, TTK Prestige, many more.
• 29–31 Oct: A wide slate including BHEL, Brigade, Coal India, DTDC, Indus Towers, L&T, Mphasis, Maruti, NTPC Green, Sunita Tools, Union Bank, etc.

Quick takeaway for investors

1. Earnings focus: H2 commentary and capex/margin guidance will determine near-term market direction.
2. Theme bets: AI/datacentre plays, renewable EPC/manufacturing, and new-energy value chain remain structural opportunities.
3. Event risk: Watch RBL/ENBD talks, Le Travenues fundraising, and regulatory updates on derivatives and bank provisioning (ECL).
4. Macro: Global trade flows, oil & gold moves, and potential US–India trade announcements are near-term macro catalysts.