Broker Views – 4/11/25

HSBC on Ambuja Cement

• Target Price: Rs.700
• Recommendation: Buy
• Q2 beat driven by tax writebacks; cost reduction and capacity expansion seen as positives for H2.

UBS on Titan

• Target Price: Rs.4,700
• Recommendation: Hold
• Strong Q2 with 19% jewellery revenue growth; 11.1% EBIT margin maintained despite heavy promotions and 65% coin growth.

CLSA on Tata Consumer Products

• Target Price: Rs.1,097 (earlier Rs.1,065)
• Recommendation: Hold
• Beat across estimates led by double-digit growth in Tea and Salt; growth businesses rose 27%, expected to grow 30% medium-term.

Morgan Stanley on Kansai Nerolac

• Target Price: Rs.212
• Recommendation: Underweight
• Miss on Q2 earnings; near-term decorative demand expected to remain weak due to lower-than-expected other income.

Macquarie on City Union Bank

• Target Price: Rs.245 | Recommendation: Outperform
• PAT beat led by higher margins and lower credit costs.
• Bank aims to sustain growth with NIMs of ~3.5% in FY26.

Elara on City Union Bank

• Target Price: Rs.275 (vs Rs.255) | Recommendation: Buy
• PAT at Rs.328 cr; RoA ~1.6% beat estimates.
• Loan growth +18% YoY, deposits +21% YoY.
• GNPA 2.4%, NNPA 0.9%; strong asset quality and retail scaling.
• EPS estimate raised 7%, with gradual re-rating expected.

Morgan Stanley on Niva Bupa

• Target Price: Rs.81 | Recommendation: Equal Weight
• Q2 loss narrower than expected due to lower claims and higher investment income.
• Sees ~80% probability of near-term stock outperformance.

Macquarie on Westlife Foodworld

• Target Price: Rs.750 | Recommendation: Outperform
• Q2 EBITDA below estimates; investing for growth amid weak industry recovery.
• Demand revival key to re-rating.

Elara on Westlife Foodworld

• Target Price: Rs.640 (vs Rs.830) | Recommendation: Accumulate
• Q2 below estimates with cost pressures on margins; EBITDA margin at 10.5%.
• McDelivery platform expected to add 3–5% SSSG in 1–2 years.
• Store count up 10% YoY to 450; Vision 2027 targets 572 stores.
• Long-term growth outlook intact despite short-term weakness.

CLSA on Bharti Airtel

• Target Price: Rs.2,285 | Recommendation: Outperform
• Strong Q2 led by India and Africa; ARPU up 10% YoY to Rs.256, 21% above Jio.
• Added 5 mn QoQ/22 mn YoY 4G/5G users; free cash flow Rs.31,900 cr post capex.
• Low gearing at 1.2x supports continued investment.

Morgan Stanley on Titan

• Target Price: Rs.3,953 | Recommendation: Overweight
• Beat across revenue, EBITDA, and PAT; festive demand strong.
• Jewellery up 19% YoY, watches +13%, eyecare +8%.
• Robust festive trends to drive sustained growth momentum.

Morgan Stanley on Kansai Nerolac

• Target Price: Rs.212 | Recommendation: Underweight
• Q2 miss; revenue flat, EBITDA +2% YoY, PAT +10% YoY below estimates.
• Decorative paint demand weak due to monsoon impact; industrial coatings resilient.
• Auto coatings segment benefiting from infra-led demand.

Morgan Stanley on Tata Consumer Products

• Target Price: Rs.1,265 (vs Rs.1,221) | Recommendation: Overweight
• Growth portfolio (~30% of sales) to sustain 30% topline growth.
• Margin expansion expected to 15% by Q4FY26; long-term target 17–20%.
• EPS outlook revised upward ~2% for FY26–28 on cost normalization and innovation-driven growth.

India Strategy Notes

Jefferies (Mahesh Nandurkar) – Sep’25 Mid-Quarter Review

• Downgrade ratio negative but improved QoQ.
• Over two-fifths of firms saw earnings upgrades.
• Lending financials, O&G, and property showed strong performance; staples lagged.
• Sustained GST-driven consumption uptick key to stronger earnings trajectory.

BofA India Strategy (Amish Shah)

• Q2FY26: Modest earnings beat; Nifty earnings up 7% YoY led by Energy, Metals, and Industrials.
• Broader NSE200 also posted a slight beat.
• Week 4 focus: Industrials and Financials.
• GST-led festive boost remains uneven across sectors.

Corporate Commentary

Zensar Technologies

• Revenue would have been up 4% QoQ excluding telecom, media & tech weakness.
• Exposure to the segment reduced to 20% from 27–28% last year.
• Margins maintained in mid-teens; confident of keeping pace with industry in FY26.