1. JPMorgan on GLP-1 in India
GLP-1 not an imminent near-term disruption
Anticipate <1% revenue impact in FY28-30 for F&B companies
Could affect consumption habits and product preferences
Global staples have de-rated in recent years due to low volumes, competition and modern trends
Indian consumer companies should adapt product portfolios
Preferences to shift towards healthier, lower-calorie, protein and fiber-rich foods
Nestle, Britannia, VBL, United Breweries, United Spirits, Jubilant Food to see more debates
2. CLSA on UltraTech Cements
Maintains high conviction outperform
Ongoing middle east conflict raised cost inflation concerns
More concerns on crude-linked products availability and profitability impact
Estimate cement price increase of 4-5% for $40/T rise in petcoke and 30% risk in packaging cost
Near-term earnings could be at risk
In medium term, when war risk subsidies, companies can retain part of price increase
Stock already at trough valuations on EV/T
3. Goldman Sachs On IndiGo
Buy , Cuts Target To 5200 From 6000
Believe supply constraints will start to show up over the next few quarters
Expect the debate to shift to the airlines’ ability to control fixed costs and balance sheet strength
Cut FY26/FY27/FY28 estimates sharply to reflect the higher fuel costs and near term weak Middle East traffic
Indigo fits well into the themes of capital preservation and industry consolidation, as they did during COVID
4. HBSC On HDFC Bank
Buy , Cuts Target To 990 From 1070
Chairman resignation and second order effects
To us, the resignation HDFC’s Chairman seems a matter of difference of opinion rather than of any governance issues
However, this will likely cause a valuation multiple erosion in our view
To offset this performance metrics need to improve
5. Citi On Financials
CGSMFI 2.0 – Liquidity Boost for Small/Medium MFIs; Limited direct uplift for large MFIs
70-80% sovereign guarantee reduces expected losses/capital consumption, reopening credit lines
Rs 20000 crore envelope equals over 20% of NBFC-MFI borrowings
Mandatory allocations addresses Q3FY26 borrowings shortfall against disbursements
AUM-linked caps democratize access while curbing concentration
For listed MFIs, Rs 300 cr per-entity ceiling limits direct uplift
Treat this as sector-positive; maximum utilization could generate Rs 8000 crore in borrowings
Key clarification: Are borrowing limits per lender or aggregate
6. Macquarie on L&T
O-P, TP Rs 4910
Update on project execution
None of the project sites have been hit in the conflict so far.
95% of the sites continue to operate with 5% sites stalled by the company or client due to risk factors such as proximity to a military base, etc
Stalled 5% sites currently did not contribute significantly to revenue.
However, Deputy MD has flagged logistics and supply chain as key challenges and highlighted revenue risk including deferment, if the situation does not get resolved in 3 months as co generally keeps three-month supplies at site
STK having corrected over 22% over the last month, we see significant value at the current level
7. MACQUARIE ON PHARMA
Generic GLP-1s Have Arrived
There Are Steep Discounts And Incremental Innovations
Generics Are Yet To Offer The Full Portfolio Of Semaglutide SKUS
Torrent Gains First-Mover Advantage In Oral Semaglutide
Differentiated Device Strategies Are Seen Among Larger Players, Zydus Stands Out
Torrent Ph, Sun Ph, Lupin & Eris Are Best Positioned To Capture Incremental Demand & Gain Mkt Sh
8. CLSA on Pharma
Upon expiry of Semaglutide patent in India on 20 March 2026, several Indian pharma cos have announced the launch of generic versions of the drug, priced c.90% lower
This sharp decline in price improves the affordability of drug, & estimate the size of total addressable market could expand 6x from Rs14bn (annually) currently to Rs83bn (US$900m) with further potential to reach Rs285bn (US$3.1bn)
While all pharma cos that have launched drug in first wave are likely to benefit, believe players such as Sun Pharma & Torrent Pharma could capture relatively higher share of market
9. GS on Pharma
Following loss of exclusivity (LoE), several India pharma firms have launched Semaglutide Generics on March 21st.
On pricing, Natco Pharma (Not Covered) is launching multi dose vials at the retail monthly price of Rs1,290 (US$14) for starting dose of 2mg/1.5ml, at c. 90% discount to prevailing brand prices although for Pen form (which view to be more prevalent) Sun’s pricing for T2DM dose is at Rs3,000 (US$33) at a c.65% discount.
These discounts are largely inline with earlier analysis of India GLP-1 market opportunity which size at US$1.5bn by FY31E, as expect significant volume uptick (c. 40x) following genericization
10. Jefferies on Payment Flatforms
Paytm – Buy, TP cut to Rs 1350 from Rs 1400
Pine Labs – Buy, TP cut to Rs 260 from Rs 300
interactions with payments platforms (Paytm & Pine Labs) indicate they are targeting +20% revenue growth & expansion in Ebitda margins aided by op. leverage
They are expanding network, growing faster in loan origination & expanding into new areas
Stocks are down 20-30% YTD amid new-listing & risk aversion
Sensitivity to lower contribution is higher – 9/6% impact on adj Ebitda.
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