NIFTY OUTLOOK : CMP 26205.3
Dear Friends,
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines. Nifty opened near our support of 25837 (opened at 25842.95), defended the level successfully, and then rallied sharply up to 26215.15.
A strong bullish candle on the daily chart indicates a powerful comeback by buyers and signals continuation of the uptrend after a brief pause. If Nifty takes out 26260 and sustains, then it may rally further towards 26313 to 26367. If demand continues to strengthen, it may also test 26421.
On the downside, 26151 to 26097 will act as immediate support. A breakdown below these levels and sustained weakness may drag Nifty towards 26043 to 25990.
Macros
1.Dollar index is @ 99.517
2.S&P 500 VIx is @ 17.23 ( -7.17 )
3.Brent crude is @ 62.32
4.U.S. 10y bond yield is @ 3.999
Note
Increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month has lifted global sentiment. Several Fed policymakers have openly supported easing policy in recent days.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales for September indicate consumer stress, and fresh data showed initial jobless claims rising by more than 200,000 last week.
Markets are now pricing in over 80% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the Fed’s Dec 9–10 meeting, a sharp jump from around 40% last week (CME FedWatch).
The Fed’s Beige Book release will also be closely tracked.
The U.S. has granted a one-year extension of tariff exclusions on certain Chinese industrial and medical imports, including equipment used for solar-energy manufacturing, as part of the recent U.S.–China trade truce.
These exclusions link back to the Section 301 tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first term.
Indian Economy
Investors in India are now eagerly awaiting the announcement of the broader trade deal. A major announcement came on the rare earth magnet front — India has approved a Rs. 72.8 billion rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing programme to reduce import dependence in key sectors such as EVs, aerospace, defence, and renewable energy.
Information Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stated that currently all permanent magnets used in India are imported, and once the proposed new manufacturing plants are operational, import dependence will practically reduce to zero.
Companies likely to benefit:
GMDC, VEDL, Hind Zinc, NALCO, Sona Comstar.
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