- As per astrology view, some important turning dates are1st, 2nd , 5th, 9th, 13th and 17th February 2026.
- As per market veterans, recency bias peaks at market tops. The frenzy seen in smallcaps, SMEs, IPOs, defence, railways, solar, chemicals, data centres and new-age tech has faded, with most themes peaking and sliding lower, leaving little room for exits. Currently, base metals, PSU banks and the bullion pack are the only active themes. As per market grapevine, excessive participation turns risky, and the ongoing rush into precious metals warrants caution and a stay-light approach.
- Friday close was weak, with Gold 02APR at 1,52,345, Silver 05MAR at 2,91,925, Dow down 179 points, Nasdaq down 223 points and GIFT Nifty near 25,420. Ahead of the Budget, absence of relief on capital gains tax, STT or dividend tax may slow fresh equity inflows, while allocations to debt, FDs and precious metals could gradually rise.
- Alert: Q3 results declared so far are below expectations, with the season concluding on 14th February 2026. Investors wake up hoping portfolios turn green, spend the day watching losses deepen, and sleep with the only consolation that everyone else is also in the red. Short-term market direction now hinges largely on whether the Budget offers relief in LTCG, STCG, dividend tax or STT.
- Why Indian cash stocks are correcting: Midcaps and smallcaps are witnessing a sharp correction, worrying investors. The real pressure comes from high LTCG, STCG, dividend tax and STT, not geopolitics. If geopolitics were the cause, global markets would also be weak, but Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil and China have delivered strong gains. The core issue is excessive valuations, especially in mid and smallcaps, combined with slowing earnings growth. Even SIP inflows of Rs.30,000–50,000 cr a month cannot support stretched valuations forever. Aggressive IPO chasing and record promoter selling only reinforce this reality. Ultimately, markets always revert to fundamentals.
- India’s growth through whose lens: India is the fastest-growing major economy in rupee terms, but foreign investors assess growth in USD terms. When viewed in dollars, India’s growth premium over the US narrows. Global capital looks beyond headlines, focusing on currency stability, policy predictability and USD-adjusted equity returns. FII flows will return when returns adequately compensate for currency risk.
