- Brent crude above $80 is a concern for the Indian economy, while drought conditions could add pressure on inflation and consumption. Heavy IPOs, OFS, QIPs and bulk deals may also absorb liquidity from the secondary market. The RBI’s upcoming policy decision will remain an important market trigger.
- Negative for bulls: Fed Governor Michael Barr has indicated that further rate hikes may be required if inflation remains above the 2% target. Higher-for-longer global rates could continue to influence liquidity and emerging-market equities.
- As per market grapevine, there is a demand to abolish LTCG tax on listed equities, with the argument that long-term shareholders provide patient capital to businesses. Supporters believe lower taxation could encourage households to shift savings towards productive investments and support long-term economic growth.
- As per a market veteran, earnings cuts may increase ahead, while inflation and higher oil prices could remain concerns. The rupee is at record lows, valuations remain stretched in several sectors and Q2-Q3FY27 earnings may be weak. Fixed income could outperform equities over the next 1-2 years if the interest-rate cycle turns. Nifty September 2026 has so far fallen 5.86%, its sharpest September decline since 2018. Technically, the market looks oversold and may see a sharp October bounce, though profit booking could return at higher levels.
- Big alert: BSE caution on international ETFs. Some international ETFs are trading at substantial premiums to their underlying NAV because overseas investment limits have restricted creation of fresh units. For example, an ETF with a NAV of Rs.100 trading at Rs.140 carries a 40% premium, which could narrow sharply if fresh units become available. Investors should therefore check the latest NAV before trading international ETFs and avoid paying excessive premiums.
