- Potential energy shock poses major risk. Qatar’s energy minister said normal supply cycles may take weeks even if the war ends immediately and warned that Gulf energy exports could halt if tensions escalate. As per Financial Times, oil prices may surge towards $150 per barrel within weeks, which could severely impact India’s economy. As per market grapevine, if crude hits $150, the Nifty level of 21743 recorded on 7th April 2025 may be breached.
- Marko Mihkelson, Chairman of the Estonian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, warned that the world may be “in the waiting room of World War 3,” highlighting rising geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on global market sentiment.
- Astro Junction: Major planetary movements include Guru Margi on 11 March, Shani Ast on 13 March and Budh Margi on 20 March. Mercury remains retrograde in Pisces from 26 February 2026 to 20 March 2026, and such overlaps with major planetary transitions often trigger sharp volatility followed by a strong directional move in markets.
- Morgan Stanley India’s Jonathan Garner has downgraded Indian equities to Equal Weight citing macro and geopolitical uncertainties. While India’s oil intensity has structurally declined and macro stability improved, high valuations, oil supply risks and uncertainty around global tech cycles may delay foreign investor repositioning towards India.
- Russian crude is now trading at a premium of $4–5 per barrel versus earlier discounts of $12–15, which may negatively impact OMCs such as HPCL, BPCL and IOCL by squeezing refining and marketing margins. LNG supply bottlenecks could also create pressure on fertiliser firms and the broader economy.
