- As per market veteran, war uncertainty makes short-term market prediction difficult. Indian markets have not participated meaningfully in the AI-led rally & sentiment towards India remains weak. Significant short positions are seen in IT stocks. Immediate reduction in STT & LCGT is essential to attract FFI inflows. Outlook for pharma, healthcare & textiles looks positive, while metals & IT remain under pressure. Monsoon progress, Q1 results & crude prices will decide the short-term market trend.
- Bank FD sahi hai. Post office saving scheme sahi hai. Gold sahi hai. Indian equities worst hai. Time has come for investors to check 1-year, 2-year and 3-year MF returns, which says “MF sahi nahi hai?” Indian markets are struggling to find even a green shoot, reflecting weak macros. During the US-Iran war, US and Iranian markets are doing well, while Indian markets continue correcting due to higher STT and LTCG. Net equity inflow stood at Rs.22,897 cr. v/s Rs.38,426 cr. MoM. Inflows may decline further; SIP cancellations may rise and redemption pressure may increase if Government does not reduce STT and LTCG.
- STT collections over the last four financial years were FY23 Rs.25,085 cr., FY24 Rs.34,192 cr., FY25 Rs.53,296 cr. and FY26 Rs.57,522 cr. STT collections have more than doubled in just three years, highlighting rapid growth in stock market participation and trading activity across India.
- As per market grapevine, Government must think before it proves too late to provide relief in LTCG and STT on equities. These measures are essential to boost foreign capital inflows, reduce capital outflows, support rupee stability and strengthen the external sector position. Immediate relief may improve foreign investor participation, capital market sentiment, rupee stability and overall economy.
- Alert-alert-alert: Indian mutual fund houses and SIP investors have provided a big exit route to FIIs over the last 2.5 years. Retail investors lost heavily in SME, small-cap, mid-cap stocks and many IPOs, making capital recovery difficult. Investors who earned bumper returns post-Covid have lost double to five times later. As per market grapevine, tired investors are stopping fresh investments in mutual funds and equities and shifting towards PPF, bank FD and debt funds. Every hype, euphoria and greed cycle eventually ends badly.
- Big negative for bulls and investors. Category-wise MoM decline in May. Flexicap funds down 49%, Midcap funds down 33%, Smallcap funds down 28%, Largecap funds down 37% and Thematic funds down 67%. As per market grapevine, if crude does not fall below $85-80 soon, more SIPs may stop and redemption pressure may rise further.
- Negative for bulls: FPI cumulative net investment in Indian equities fell to Rs.7.2 trillion as of 12th June 2026, the lowest level since 2016 after sustained selling pressure. India has slipped to 7th globally, with Taiwan and South Korea overtaking it. As per market grapevine, Government should reduce STT and LTCG to attract FFIs, FPIs and NRIs, otherwise FII selling may continue till 31-12-2026.
