- ETFs have also seen sharp declines NIFTYBEES -13.30%, BANKBEES -13.20%, MODEFENCE -14.25%, AUTOBEES -17.36%, PSUBANKBEES -13.94%, HDFCSML250 -21.30% and MID150BEES -12.30%. Due to this fall, investors are reportedly shifting funds towards bank FD, PPF, debt funds and other small saving schemes as per market grapevine.
- Negative for equity Saudi Arabia cut oil output by about 20% to nearly 8M bpd after shutting Safaniya and Zuluf fields amid Hormuz disruptions. IEA says Gulf producers have already cut at least 10M bpd as shipping risks rise. HSBC in Qatar has closed its branches while Standard Chartered has started evacuating staff from Dubai after Iranian warnings of targeting US and Israeli banks in the region. Iran also says it is carrying out its strongest attack on Israel since the war began.
- Derivative data FII long-short ratio stands near 10% long and 90% short. Total open intrinsic value of options stands at Rs.24,330 cr. in Put vs Rs.1,005 cr. in Call, while Nifty options show Rs.12,013 cr. in Put vs Rs.428 cr. in Call. The wide gap suggests a possible correction ahead as option buyers currently hold stronger profits.
- Looking at the Russia–Ukraine and US–Iran wars, it appears India concluded its conflict with Pakistan during Operation Sindoor in a decisive manner by achieving its objectives without prolonging the conflict. A longer war could have affected economic confidence and market sentiment.
- Alert Crude has risen from $89 to $99 with next possible targets seen around $120 and $150. If crude crosses $120, a sharp vertical move may follow. However, higher crude prices may benefit Indian ethanol producers using grain. Gulshan Polyols, one of the largest ethanol producers, may benefit as long as crude remains above $70 as per market grapevine.
