Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) have plunged sharply in early 2026, dragging the stock into its most oversold territory in the past five years, as selling pressure mounts amid broader market weakness and company-specific headwinds.
Why the Sharp Fall?
- So far in 2026, RIL shares have fallen more than ~11%, making it one of the worst January performances since 2011.
- The stock’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum indicator — dropped to about 24, a level typically viewed as deeply oversold, suggesting intense recent selling.
- The drop has erased roughly $29 billion in market value this year alone.
- Sentiment was further dampened after RIL’s Q3 FY26 results failed to spark buying, with weaker momentum in its retail segment and concerns about O2C (oil-to-chemicals) margins due to reduced Russian crude imports.
What Analysts Are Saying
Despite the sell-off and oversold technical signals:
- Most brokerages remain positive on the stock. Out of about 28 analysts covering RIL, around 26 have Buy/Add recommendations.
- The median price target among analysts is around ₹1,717, implying roughly ~23% upside from current levels. Some top houses even have targets above ₹1,800.
- Key potential triggers that analysts point to include the upcoming Jio Platforms IPO, possible tariff hikes in telecom, recovery in the retail business, and expansion of the new energy ecosystem.
Should You Buy the Dip?
Here are the pros and cons of buying now:
✅ Possible Upside Factors
- Oversold technical condition may lead to a short-term bounce.
- Jio IPO is seen as a major catalyst that could unlock valuation and boost overall RIL stock sentiment.
- Long-term growth prospects remain intact across digital (Jio), retail, and new energy businesses.
❌ Risks & Near-Term Headwinds
- Retail segment growth is sluggish and weighing on sentiment.
- O2C margins could remain pressured amid geopolitical uncertainties and crude supply challenges.
- Deep oversold readings can sometimes persist before a sustained reversal.
Bottom Line
Being oversold with attractive analyst targets suggests this could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, especially those who believe in RIL’s structural story and the upcoming Jio IPO as a trigger. However, near-term volatility and sector headwinds mean timing matters — cautious investors might consider phased buying (e.g., SIP or staggered entry) rather than a lump-sum purchase at the exact bottom.
