India’s steel sector is showing faint signs of stabilization, but any meaningful rebound appears distant. Prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC), a benchmark for domestic steel demand, have slumped to five-year lows, putting significant pressure on margins and denting producer earnings.
After a temporary rise following a 12 per cent safeguard duty earlier in 2025, HRC prices have corrected sharply. By mid-November they traded in the region of approximately ₹46,000–₹47,000 per metric tonne, well down from the earlier peak of around ₹52,850/MT.
As a result, major steel producers are struggling. With demand remaining tepid and global pricing pressure continuing, analysts suggest that a meaningful up-cycle is unlikely before 2027. For now the industry is relying on stable raw-material costs, steady (if subdued) demand and extended safeguard duty measures to limit dumping from cheap imports.
That said, the difficulties within the steel segment reflect broader pressures on industrial momentum. Even though overall economic indicators in India point to resilience — including reasonably strong macro-fundamentals, stable banking and corporate balance sheets, and signs of demand revival in rural and certain urban segments.
But for steel — long a bellwether for industrial growth — the slump underscores that external headwinds, global oversupply, and weak demand cycles can delay recovery even when overall economy intends rebound.
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