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October 14, 2024

JPM on Telecom
Upgrade Voda Idea to N from UW, TP Raised to Rs 10 from Rs 7
Bharti A – OW. TP raised to Rs 1920
Bharti Hexacom – OW, TP Raised to Rs 1580; premium to Bharti has expanded
Indus Tower – OW, TP Raised to Rs 525; top pick in telcos & tower cos
Sustained tariff repair likelihood pushed up by lack of AGR relief and affordability;
Bake in tariff hikes of 15% in FY27E
Jefferies on GMR Airports
Buy, TP Rs 106
GMRI, via its subsidiary GNIAL, has signed a concession agreement for development/operation of the Nagpur Airport (Mah).
This airport is relatively small currently (FY24: 2.8mn pax; 10-yr CAGR: ~8%), but city is of strategic importance
UBS on 360 One
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 1250
Core ARR Revenue & AUM to grow faster vs overall biz; TBR a plus
Core profitability expected to improve, backed by higher operating leverage
New business avenues- HNWI & global biz pose upside risks
Expect ROE to improve to 32% in FY27E
MS on Varun Beverages
OW, TP Rs 674
Board approves QIP of up to Rs75bn
As of 2QCY24, VBL has net debt of Rs59bn with net debt to equity of 0.7x & net debt to trailing 4Q EBITDA of 1.37x.
In past, management indicated they have set an outer limit of net debt target of 2x EBITDA
HSBC on Varun Beverages
Buy, TP Rs 780
Board approved a QIP of Rs75bn, implying c4% equity dilution
VBL intends to use proceeds for debt repayment, to strengthen its b/s & growth opportunities
A faster ROIC expansion is possible as value shifts from debt to equity holders
CITI ON RBI POLICY
RBI Kept Rates On Hold, Changed Stance To Neutral
Beyond The Adjustments, RBI Kept Annual FY25 Infln & Growth Outlook Unchanged
Have Marginally Adjusted Baseline View Of 1st Rate Cut Being In Feb Rather Than Apr
Acknowledge That There Are Risks Of A Delayed Rate Cut
Change In Stance Appears To Be More About Gaining Policy Flexibility
Rate Cut Cycle Could Be Shallow (50 bps) Unless Growth Weakens Materially
Bernstein on PB Fintech
Maintain Outperform with target price of Rs 1720
If the plan works, PB can be more dominant in a much larger Indian health insurance market
If the plan fails, the downside should ideally be capped at $100mn
Management understands this is ON left-field, and has reiterated that it is a one-time investment
Inclined to believe the management's stance, thereby capping downside
While we do not like the capital allocation, we take the view that this is a one-time investment, thus limiting stock impact
We draw comfort from the strong business momentum in the insurance business
Jefferies on Jon Creation
IT slowdown weighs on formal job creation
Job creation pace weakened to 3-yr low in the organized segment as large listed IT cos shed employees
Analysis of 8.3 million employees of 2000 listed cos shows that ex-IT, job creation was still healthy at 3%+
BFSI posting 3rd consecutive strong year; Wages grew by a strong 12% YoY
Capex linked jobs in construction are on an upswing + agri improved post a strong monsoon
Both these should drive a bottom-of-pyramid consumption recovery soon
GS on Insurance
Turn more constructive on the life insurance space
See improvements in the operating environment
Corporates assert limited impact of new regulations
See VNB growth acceleration for private players
With rate cut cycle see an increase in embedded value
Valuations continue to look attractive
Product mix set to stabilize in H2 with margins potentially bottoming out by Q4
HDFC Life - Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 820
SBI Life - Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 2000
INSTL. INVESTORS EQUITY DERIVAT. TRADES AS ON 10-10-2024 :
FIIS F & O : RS. CRS. :
TOTAL NET BUY : -30075
INDEX FUT. : -1663
INDEX OPT. : -21001
STOCK FUT. : -1574
STOCK OPT. : -5837
INSTL. INVEST. EQUITY CASH PROV. TRADES AS ON : 10-OCT-2024 :
FIIS : SELL -4,927 (16,514-21,441)
DIIS : BUY +3,878 (13,301-9,423)
BSE SENSEX : +144 (81,611)
NSE NIFTY : +16 (24,998)
BSE MIDCAP. : -176 (48,225)
BSE SMLCAP. : +242 (56,353)
B. CRUDE : $ 77.62
GOLD: $ 2,628=INR 75,470(10gr)
SILVER : RS. 92,000 (kg)
FOREX : RS. $ 83.97
6.79% NEW '34: 6.7345% (100.3975)
7.10% GOI '34: 6.7775% (102.23)
7.23% GOI '39: 6.8166% (103.77)
Today's Headlines from SIPfund
Economic Times
Sebi extends deadline to implement direct pay-out of securities to clients' demat a/c to Nov 11
IREDA Q2 Results: PAT jumps 36% YoY to Rs 388 crore, revenue up 38%
Anand Rathi Q2 Results: Cons PAT jumps 32% YoY to Rs 76 crore. Rs 7/share interim dividend declared
Govt releases advance instalment of Rs 1.78 lk cr for state govts amid festive season
World Bank maintains India's FY25 GDP growth forecast at 7% amid strong agricultural production, employment growth
ANAND Group invests Rs 600 crore to boost electric vehicle and SUV component manufacturing
UPI transactions volume rises 52 pc to 78.97 billion in Jan-Jun: Report
NCLT directs to initiate insolvency proceedings against Syska LED Lights
Jindal Power, Vedanta and CESC in race for Hiranmaye Energy's ₹1,300 crore assets
Listed property developers halve net debt to ₹20,808 crore
Payments firm Tonetag looks to bag $50 million from Iron Pillar, others
Software-as-a-service startup Spry Therapeutics secures $15 million
Finance automation startup ZenStatement raises $1.6 million in seed funding
Business Standard
TCS Q2FY25 results: Net profit rises 5% to Rs 11,909 cr, revenue up 7.6%
Centre considers seed funding to establish a shipping insurance entity
Good Glamm Group acquires Sirona Hygiene for Rs 450 cr in all-cash deal
Economists caution on RBI's growth optimism, project FY25 growth below 7.2%
PM Modi holds bilateral talks with counterparts from Japan, New Zealand
JSW Steel partners with BHP, Carbon Clean to work on capture technology
Manufacturing output to jump 9% if more women join workforce: World Bank
Govt repurchases Rs 24,453 crore worth of bonds through buyback auction
Give borrower info until loan cycle or shutdown: RBI to credit institutions
Financial Express
Pine Labs India loss widens 3x in FY24
Suzlon bags 400 MW captive wind power deal from Jindal Renewables
Construction equipment sector to see revenue growth decelerate to 4-6% this fiscal on decline in road contracts
Railways, NHAI drag down CPSE capex
Inflows into equity mutual funds down 12 per cent in September
Mint
China Investors Expect $283 Billion of New Stimulus This Weekend
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to visit US between 16-28 October
TCS adds 11k employees in H1FY25; campus hiring begins for FY26
Govt orders audit of Ola Electric amid surge in consumer complaints: Report
E-way bills hit another record in September, signalling festival season boost
Multilateral banks could lend up to $480 billion more before rating downgrades, Fitch says
Navigating the Opening Bell with Sbi Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights
1. Global Market:
On Thursday, U.S. markets experienced slight declines following the release of inflation data. The #Dow eased 0.14%, the #Nasdaq inched down 0.13%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%.
Going ahead, the S&P 500 is likely to continue its northward journey and test the level of 5860 followed by 5920 in the short-term. The support zone is shifted higher in the zone of 5760-5740 level.
On Thursday, the #BrentOil surged by 3.18 percent and ended above the $79 level. It has also surged above its 100-day EMA level. Going ahead, the zone of 80.60-81 will act as an immediate hurdle for Brent Oil.
The U.S. Dollar Index (#DXY) closed flat on Thursday but continues to trade comfortably above its 100-day EMA since the last two trading sessions. Going ahead, the 200-day EMA will act as an immediate hurdle for DXY, which is currently placed at 103.35 level.
2. Nifty View:
On weekly expiry, Nifty traded in a narrow range of 155 points, the smallest in the last seven sessions, leading to the formation of an NR7 pattern. This pattern signals reduced volatility and market contraction. Such low volatility is often followed by a sharp increase in volatility and a potential directional move, suggesting a trending move in the next 1-2 sessions.
Going ahead, the zone of 24900-24870 will act as immediate support for the index. Any sustainable move below this level will lead to further selling pressure in the index. In that case, it is likely to test the level of 24740, followed by 24500 in the short-term.
While, on the upside, the resistance has shifted lower in the zone of 25130-25150 level. Any sustainable move above the level of 25150 will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the level of 25260, followed by 25350 in the short-term.
On the #derivative front, October #futures ended higher by 0.14 percent, and the cumulative #OpenInterest of current, next, and far series surged by 1.68 percent.
Among the constituents of the #Nifty index, 13 stocks have witnessed a long build-up, and 13 stocks have witnessed a short covering rally. While 15 stocks have witnessed a short build-up and 9 stocks have witnessed a long unwinding.
The 25200 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 25500 strike. On the put side, 25000 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 24900 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.66. While, for the October monthly series, OI PCR is at 1.01.
3. Bank Nifty View:
The Bank Nifty outpaced the major indices on Thursday, rising over 1% to close at the 51530 level, with HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank leading the charge. However, despite its strong performance, the index was unable to surpass Wednesday’s high.
Going ahead, the zone of 51700-51800 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 51800 will lead to a further upside rally in the index. In that case, it is likely to test the level of 52300 in the short-term.
On the downside, the zone of 51150-51100 will act as immediate support for the index. Any sustainable move below the level of 51100 will lead to the resuming of its downward journey. In that case, it is likely to test the level of 50600, followed by 50200 in the short-term.
On the #derivative front, October #futures surged by 0.79 percent, and the cumulative #OpenInterest of current, next, and far series has dipped by 3.19 percent, which indicates an overall short-covering rally.
The 52000 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 52500 strike. On the put side, 51500 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 51000 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 1.08 and for the October monthly series, OI PCR is at 0.89.
4. Key Market Indicators:
On Thursday, the volatility index #INDIAVIX ended at 13.49 level with a loss of 4.44 percent. Going ahead, the zone of 14.20-14.40 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 14.40 will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the level of 15.60 in the short-term.
The #Advance/Decline ratio tilted in favour of advancers on Thursday.
5. Key Sectors:
Technically, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Oil & Gas and Nifty PSU Bank are likely to underperform in the short-term.
6. FII/DII Data:
#FIIs sold to the tune of 4926.61 cr. while #DIIs bought to the tune of 3878.33 cr.
FIIs' #Long-short ratio for index futures is at 35.53 as on a net basis, they sold 26737 index futures.
On the stock #futures front, FIIs have sold to the tune of 21236 contracts, while on the #Options Front, FIIs sold 373534 call contracts and 481983 Put Option contracts.
TCS Review
Nomura
Neutral, TP Rs 4150
2Q: Modest miss at rev, but significant miss at margins
BSNL deal drives growth in 2Q
Pipeline near record-high levels, TCV moderates while being within comfort band
1.6%-2.4% cut in FY25-26F EPS
Jefferies
Buy, TP Rs 4735
2Q missed est. with de-growth in North America & margin miss being key -ves
Though, steady hiring & continued recovery in BFSI bodes well
Moreover, ramp down of BSNL deal may provide scope to improve margins
Cut est by 1-2%
HSBC
Buy, TP Rs 4540
2Q reflected a painfully slow demand recovery, though TCS alluded to some client-specific issues as well
Revenues barely grew on a sequential basis (ex of passthrough) which led to a rare margin fall as well for TCS
MS
OW, TP Rs 4910
F2Q25 : Lower than expectations
Quality of revenue growth is weak & miss on margins
+ves
BFSI revenues grew QoQ by 1.9% in USD terms & for 1st time in last 5 quarters it turned +ve on YoY growth in cc terms
JPM
OW, TP Rs 5100
A rare miss - several knotty one-offs, but with silver linings
Given TCS also pointed out lengthening sales cycles and signings were unimpressive, fear there is still a lack of a broad-based macro recovery
Would use any sharp correction to add
UBS on Kotak Bank
Neutral, TP Raised to Rs 1950
Cyclical headwinds for NIM, CASA while credit costs rise
NIM sensitivity to rate cuts relatively high
Stability in core biz key for re-rating
Val fair(2x FY26E P/BV) & price in most concerns
CITI on Cipla
Buy, TP Rs 1870
Hengrui’s product is 1st interchangeable version & can garner significant market share as well as can result in price decline
If there is further delay in Cipla’s Goa facility resolution, generic Abraxane opportunity would significantly be diminished
CITI on Indus Tower
Buy, TP Rs 500
Believe share price correction over last 1M provides an attractive buying opportunity
Reiterate +ve Catalyst Watch
3 key events to monitor:
1) 2Q results
2) Conclusion of Voda Idea’s (delayed) bank funding
3) Waiver (by gov’t) of bank guarantee
Jefferies on Bandhan Bank
Buy. TP Rs 240
Partha Sengupta appointed MD&CEO for 3yrs
Should be +ve as he was earlier Dy. MD & Chief Credit Officer at SBI & then MD&CEO of IOB
He has also worked in West Bengal, a key market for Bandhan
Also, bank will receive Rs3.1bn as CGFMU claim
Investec on Bandhan BK
Sell, TP Rs 180
24% recovery from CGFMU & appointment of a new CEO
Financial impact of overall CGFMU audit is lower than expectations
Continue to believe BK will need to raise confidence capital at some stage to boost its capitalization
Nomura on Credit Access
Downgrade to Reduce, TP cut to Rs 950
State elections including Maharashtra, Bihar & Jharkhand are coming up; these states form 28% of its total AUM where there might be disruptions
Steep decline in disbursements/AUM growth; asset quality also deteriorates
MS on Tata Elxsi
UW, TP Rs 6860
With muted 2Q, F25e rev growth exceeding F24 appears a tall task
Healthcare may recover from 3Q & transportation deal wins to support growth, but emerging industry caution in European auto, ltd growth visibility in media, & premium val keep us UW
Avenue Supermart Review
MS
Downgrade to UW, TP cut to Rs 3702 from Rs5,769
2Q missed expectations on both top-line &margins
More importantly, management commentary about competition from online grocery affecting LFL growth puts doubt on c20% top-line growth could lead to further de-rating
JPM
Downgrade to Neutral, TP cut to Rs 4700 from Rs 5400
Q2 below expectations; revenue growth moderated to 14% y/y (vs. 18% in Q1) on back of slower LFL growth of 5.5% (vs. 9.1% in Q1)
Extent of SSSG moderation surprised us
FY25/26E EBITDA cut by 8%/10%
CLSA
O-P, TP Rs 5360
2Q sales & PAT below expectations
Gross margin (14.2%) was 30bps below est
PAT notably below est with higher-than-expected employee costs
Cut FY25-FY27 est 13%-15% to reflect slower sales & higher overhead costs
Bernstein
O-P, TP Rs 5800
Biggest miss was rev growth (+14.4% yoy in Q2), slowest in 4 yrs
LFL growth +5.5% (vs. 9.1% for Q1F25), slowest in 3 yrs
Standalone Q2 EBITDA (7.9%) & PAT margins (5%) slightly lower yoy due to operating leverage
Nuvama
Maintain Hold, Target Price cut to ₹5,040
Weak Q2: Drags H1FY25 LFL growth
Rising Costs: Higher opex impacts EBITDA
Online Competition: Grocery players & market weakness adding pressure.
JPM on L&T
Initiate OW, TP Rs 4360
Trades@25xFY26E core EPS with 23% EPS CAGR over FY24-FY27E & 20%+ core RoCE, offering attractive combination of growth at very reasonable val
EPS growth over FY24-27E will be driven by healthy core rev growth of 16% & 60bps core margin expansion
IIFL on Footwear Cos
Initiate Buy o Bata India, TP Rs 1700
Initiate Buy on Metro Brands, TP Rs 1425
Initiate reduce on Relaxo, TP Rs 700
Organized footwear industry in India is well poised to deliver mid-teens growth in medium term
Cos with higher exposure to four themes– women’s footwear, premium footwear, sports & athleisure & brand outlets - are well poised to deliver higher growth
Metro Brands ranks first based followed by Bata India, Campus & Relaxo
Emkay on Metals
Mixed outlook on top players
Hindalco: Initiate Reduce, Target ₹650
Stock priced-in positives; cautious on Bay Minette capex.
Vedanta: Initiate Buy, Target ₹600
Demerger a positive, project completions to ease balance sheet concerns
NALCO: Initiate Buy, Target ₹275 .
Market underestimates earnings potential; top pick in Metals & Mining.
HSBC on OMCs
Current volatility in oil prices is beneficial for OMCs & discourages any government interference in pump prices
Weakness in auto fuel price (flattish for last two months) not surprising given above normal monsoons; expect to recover
Maintain Buy on BPCL, HPCL, IOC
MS on CONCOR
UW, TP Rs 774
2Q handling vol growth 6% (exim 4% & domestic 14%)
This was below 2QF25 growth est of 7% (exim 5% & domestic: 20%)
1HF25 growth was 6% (exim 4% & domestic 15%)
CCRI had previously guided for F25 exim & domestic growth to be 15% and 25%, respectively
Equity :
Nifty closed @24,964.25 (−34.20) and Sensex @ 81,381.36 (−230.05) on Friday. GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,077.50 (as of 7.30 a.m.)
FIIs net sold equities in cash to the tune of Rs 4,163 cr whereas DIIs bought equities in cash worth Rs. 3,731 cr on October 11, 2024
Avenue Supermarts, witnessed a 14.2% YoY increase in its standalone revenue at ₹14,050 crore for Q2FY25 and its PAT increased 5.8% YoY in Q2FY25
Sudarshan Chemical Industries to acquire global pigment biz of Heubach Group for Rs 1,180 crore
QIP fundraising hits record high this year; 71 firms mobilise Rs. 88,768 cr so far
Airfares around Diwali drop 20-25% on several routes
Sula Vineyards’ Q2FY25 revenues increased 1.3% YoY
CCPA tells Ola to give refund options to customers
Ahluwalia Contracts bags order worth ₹1,095 crore from DLF City Centre
PNC Infratech secures ₹2,039.61 crore contract from CIDCO for NAINA infrastructure project
Ashoka Buildcon received a Rs. 1,673 cr project from CIDCO
Bandhan Bank's shares surged as the market responded positively to the appointment of Partha Pratim Sengupta as the bank’s new Managing Director and CEO
Adani Energy inks pact to operate electricity transmission lines in Kenya
Wipro to consider bonus issue ahead of Q2 results
Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd reported a 28.4% YoY increase in net profit at ₹25.8 crore for Q2FY25
SBI to increase instant loan limit for MSME sector to Rs. 5 cr
Macrotech Developers net debt rises 14% in Sep quarter to Rs 4,920 cr due to biz expansion
Shares of Adani Green Energy Ltd gained following the company’s announcement of significant growth in operational capacity and energy sales for H1FY25
Indian ADRs: Wipro (+1.6%), Dr. Reddy’s (+1.3%) and ICICI Bank (-1.7%) on Friday
Debt:
10 yr G-Sec (old) rose by 1 bps to 6.79% on Friday
Net direct tax collection rose by 18.35% YoY to Rs 11.25 lac cr as on 11th Oct, the government stated
Amount raised via corporate bonds in H1 of FY24 rose by 6% YoY to Rs 4.98 lac cr as more institutions tapped the bond market due to lower yields, as per prime database
India’s Industrial production contracted for the first time in nearly 2 years. It fell by 0.1% in Aug due to unfavourable base and decline in mining and electricity
Commodities:
Brent crude was down by 0.49% to $78.88/barrel on Friday as investors weighed factors such as possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton's impact on fuel demand in Florida
Gold futures settled higher after a U.S. inflation data cemented prospects of a rate cut next month, restraining the dollar below recent highs, while safe-haven demand stemming from the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also lifted the bullion. Spot gold was up by 1.01% to $2,656/oz on Friday
India's palm oil imports dropped by over 33% in September, reaching a six-month low of 527,314 metric tons due to higher prices and increased domestic stocks according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA)
Turkey imposed anti-dumping duties on some steel imports from China, Russia, India and Japan, an Official Gazette announcement said on Friday, with the highest tariffs on Chinese imports, boosting stocks of flat steel producers
Currency:
Rupee depreciated by 10 paise and settled at 84.07 against the US dollar on Friday, pressured by outflow of FII from Indian equity market and an uptick in crude prices amid intensifying Middle East conflict
India's forex reserves fell by $3.7 bn during the week ended Oct 4, to $701.2 bn from $704.9 bn reported prior week
US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.10% to end at 102.89 on Friday, as Traders are keeping US interest rates elevated in the assumption less rate cuts from Fed
USD/JPY increased by 0.38% to end at 149.13 on Friday, amid the BoJ rate hike uncertainty
CHF/USD fell by 0.15% to end at 1.166 on Friday, as the SNB is expected to cut interest rates further this year
International Markets:
U.S. markets rallied on Friday with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up by 0.97%, 0.61% and 0.33% respectively. All 3 major futures indices are trading down 2-20 bps at the time of writing the report
US PPI inflation rose by 1.9% YoY in Sep-24 vs. 1.8% YoY in Aug-24. Economists polled by Reuters projected inflation to increase by 1.6% YoY. The annual core U.S. PPI inflation increased to 2.8% Sep-24 from 2.4% in Aug-24 and was above analysts' estimate of a 2.7% YoY increase
J.P Morgan reported better than expected results for Q3CY24 as Net interest income rose 3% YoY to US$23.5 bn, which was above analysts' estimate. The company also raised its full-year 2024 guidance for net interest income to US$92.5 bn from the previous US$91 bn guidance
Chinese finance minister announced on Saturday that China will significantly increase government debt issuance to offer subsidies to people with low incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks’ capital to revive growth. The finance minister however did not provide any details on the size of the fiscal stimulus being prepared
GIFTNifty higher, trading at a premium of more than 70 pts from Nifty Futures Friday close, indicates a gap-up start for the Indian market
APE for private insurers grew at 28% on a base of 12%: MorganStanley on life insurance
CITI ON JUST DIAL
• Maintain Sell; Hike target to Rs 1075 from Rs 950
• Traffic Growth Pick-Up Bodes Well; Sustenance Key
• EBITDA margins now within targeted band of 28-30%
• Expect sustained focus on traffic/top-line growth going ahead
Emkay initiates 'buy' rating on Nalco, with a target price of Rs 275
Emkay initiates 'buy' on Vedanta, with a target price of Rs 600.
Emkay initiates 'reduce' rating on
Hindalco Target 650
CHINA PBOC injects a net of 19.5 billion yuan into the open market via 7-day RRP.
SHANGHAI INE MOST ACTIVE FREIGHT INDEX (EUROPE ROUTE) FUTURES EXTENDED INTRADAY GAIN TO 14.00%, NOW AT 2758.8 POINTS.
JPM on L&T
Initiate OW, TP Rs 4360
Trades@25xFY26E core EPS with 23% EPS CAGR over FY24-FY27E & 20%+ core RoCE, offering attractive combination of growth at very reasonable val
EPS growth over FY24-27E will be driven by healthy core rev growth of 16% & 60bps core margin expansion
GENSOL ENGINEERING: CO SECURES AED 81.6 MN (RUPEES 186 CR) CONTRACT FOR 23 MWP ROOFTOP SOLAR PROJECT IN DUBAI
Nomura says growth of public insurance players outpaced overall industry in Sep 2024, adding that the private players also saw a strong growth
China will accelerate the revision process of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law to prevent and stop unfair competition practices, and promote the elimination of policies and measures that hinder a unified market and fair competition, the director of market regulator SAMR says on Monday briefing.
The Group CEO of Saudi Arabia's Diriyah Company sees "enormous" investment opportunities for Chinese companies, saying that "never in history" has the relationship between the kingdom and China been better
BERNSTEIN ON AVENUE SUPERMART
(CMP: 4,573)
MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM
TARGET: 5,800
Biggest Miss Was Rev Growth, Slowest In 4 Years, LFL Growth Slowest In 3 Years
Standalone EBITDA & Margin Were Slightly Lower YoY Due To Operating Leverage
Co Can Get Back To 20% + Growth On Faster Store/Retail Area Addition
Co Can Get Back To 20% + Growth If We See Increased Focus With 4-6 Hr Delivery
Co Can Get Back To 20% + Growth On Reduced Competitive Intensity From QC In Metros
Anticipate These To Take 3-5 Quarters To Impact
NOMURA ON LIFE INSURANCE
Growth Of Public Ins Players Outpaced Overall Ind In Sep 2024
Growth Outpaced Overall Ind At 48% YoY (Vs ~1%/5% YoY In Aug- 24/Sep-23)
Pvt Players' Growth Was Also Strong At ~28% YoY (vs ~15%/12% In Aug-24/Sep-23)
Private Players' Market Share Decreased To 65.0% In Sep 2024 (Vs 68.2% in Sep-23)
Within Pvt Ins Ind, Banca Players Continued To Outperform
Agency Players' Growth Was Lower At 17% For The Month Growth For Q2FY25 Came In At 21%/24% YoY For The Overall Ind/Private Players
PHARMA STOCKS : Analyst Expects Pharma Co. To post 10-11 Revenue Growth with Improvement In EBITDA Margins due To Lower Input Prices of API
CONSUMER DURABLES, AUTO ; Consumer durable, auto costs set to increase amid West Asia crisis - BL
Consumer durables and automobile makers are witnessing an increase in logistics costs
Avenue Supermart Review CLSA
O-P, TP Rs 5360
2Q sales & PAT below expectations
Gross margin (14.2%) was 30bps below est
PAT notably below est with higher-than-expected employee costs
Cut FY25-FY27 est 13%-15% to reflect slower sales & higher overhead costs
ICICI SEC ON JANA SFB
• Initiate Add with target price of ₹630
• Metamorphosis: Gravitating towards secured and diversified
• Maturing with customers; retail assets traction to continue
• RoA/RoE likely to settle near 1.9%/18% for FY25-26
MS on CONCOR
UW, TP Rs 774
2Q handling vol growth 6% (exim 4% & domestic 14%)
This was below 2QF25 growth est of 7% (exim 5% & domestic: 20%)
1HF25 growth was 6% (exim 4% & domestic 15%)
CCRI had previously guided for F25 exim & domestic growth to be 15% and 25%, respectively
IIFL on Footwear Cos
Initiate Buy o Bata India, TP Rs 1700
Initiate Buy on Metro Brands, TP Rs 1425
Initiate reduce on Relaxo, TP Rs 700
Organized footwear industry in India is well poised to deliver mid-teens growth in medium term
Cos with higher exposure to four themes– women’s footwear, premium footwear, sports & athleisure & brand outlets - are well poised to deliver higher growth
Metro Brands ranks first based followed by Bata India, Campus & Relaxo
CLSA ON CHINA
While Saturday's closely watched China MOF press conference left out details on the size of a fiscal stimulus may imply some near-term volatility as markets re-open today
We think overall the MOF event should not deter recent positive momentum in China stocks as investors will likely now focus on the next major event which is the NPC, which will likely keep investors' expectations alive of a sizeable fiscal stimulus ahead.
Should there be an even larger-than-expected incremental fiscal stimulus lasting multiple years, is announced in the weeks ahead, there is a possibility of an overshoot of markets beyond even our bull-case target
HSBC ON CHINA STIMULUS
No big fiscal number (yet), although supportive measures for local government debt and property beat our looks like is here to stay.
We re-iterate our equity index targets of near 18-21% upside, albeit mindful of emerging risks.
Bonds likely to trade ranged with a steepening bias, while the Renminbi may be challenged by external factors until the next event.
Paras Defence mngmt Says QIP Money Will Be Deployed For Working Capital Of Co
Looking At Various Growth Opportunities -CNBCTV18
TRANS & RECT LARGE TRADE
27 LK Shares Worth 211 Cr Change Hands At ₹780/sh In Block Deal Window
New York-bound Air India flight Al- 119 diverted to Delhi Airport after bomb threat
• Aviation security apparatus including bomb squad on the job
• Aircraft parked at Delhi airport
SBI: Bank plans to enhance threshold limit under instant loan scheme for MSMEs -Zee business
As far as network expansion is concerned, Setty said SBI is planning to open 600 branches across the country in the current financial year.
Rupee Opens At 84.05/$ Vs Friday's Close Of 84.06/$
ASHOKA UP 6%
dmart 8% down
NIFTY TO OPEN GAP UP 60 PTS
MAHINDRA LOGISTICS: Company Unveils New Brand Identity Representing Accelerating Progress
The new identity introduces a bold and dynamic icon, symbolizing the aspiration to scale new heights and the relentless drive to rise. It captures the essence of the company’s core values and future-ready vision, emphasizing collective strength and continuous forward momentum
Transformers India has 1.2% of equity traded in a single block
WIPRO +2%
PREMIER ENERGIES: WINS ORDERS WORTH RS 765CR
Nifty opens in green; surpasses above previous session high
Nifty Bank up 0.3%, but opens within previous session range
Premier Energies International Private Ltd. and Premier Energies Photovoltaic Private Ltd., both subsidiaries of Premier Energies Limited, have received and accepted multiple orders from various customers amounting to a total value of INR 765 crore.
These orders comprise INR 632 crore for solar modules and INR 133 crore for solar cells.
The supply of modules & cells are scheduled to be commenced in July 2025.
Nifty Metal up over 1.2%; top sectoral gainer led by National Aluminium, Steel Authority
Cipla In Focus
Sandoz launches first FDA-approved generic of Abraxane
Abraxane currently contributing 6-7% to EPS
Citi believes if there is a further delay in Goa facility resolution, the generic Abraxane opportunity would significantly be diminished for the company -Etnow
Nifty Smallcap up over 0.4%; outperforms other broader indices
Alert: All major sectoral indices in green
MINI DIAMONDS : Company inform about Successful Opening of Company’s first ever Flagship Retail Designer store with 14kt Gold and Lab Grown Diamond Jeweller
HCL TECHNOLOGIES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH!
Avendus Alt Strategies Says Won't Be Surprised To See Market Decline 5% Hereon
Expect Results Season To Be Weak -CNBCTV18
Analysts Have Downgraded DMart, Hence, See Selling Pressure
DMart After This Fall Maybe Become Attractive For The Long-Term -CNBCTV18
ZOMATO : 32 LKH SHARES EXCHANGED VIA BLOCK DEAL
MorganStanley downgrades Avenue Supermarts to 'underweight'.
Ashoka Buildcon: Breakout from 'Horizontal Resistance' zone
Co received 'Letters of Acceptance' for several projects
Volume over 2x 20-session average trading volume
Registers biggest single session gain in over a month -Etnow
SPRAYKING: Narmadesh Brass Industries Limited which is subsidiary of Company has received the contract for procurement of Brass Billets amounting to approx. INR 5 Crore.
Avenue Supermarts hits 6-month low; slips below 200-DMA level
NALCO: Hits 14-year high intraday
Breakout from 10-session consolidation
Trades above key DMA levels -Etnow
Govt most likely to cut APM gas allocation by 15-20% to CGD from 16th oct
NIFTY FMCG SLIPS IN RED
NIFTY PHARMA SLIPS IN RED
A look at stocks that are buzzing in trade post order wins
- PNCInfra up 3.28%
- AshokaBuildcon up 6.5%
- GensolEngg up 2.14%
Avenue Supermarts declines nearly 8% after unveiling its Q2 results— Brokerages substantially downgrade
Zomato: 32 lakh shares block deal
INDUSTRIAL AND PRUDENTIAL INVESTMENT: Q2 RESULT 28 OCT
SUDDEN SPIKE IN MAKRET
Ashoka Buildcon:
Breakout from 'Horizontal Resistance' zone
Co received 'Letters of Acceptance' for several projects
Volume over 2x 20-session average trading volume
Registers biggest single session gain in over a month
Avenue Supermarts hits 6-month low; slips below 200-DMA level
Alert: Trent overtakes Avenue Supermarts in market cap
Negative news for IGL and MGL
Govt most likely to cut APM gas allocation by 15-20% to CGD from 16th oct
- surprise move govt has most likely decided to cut APM gas allocation to priority segment ( CNG + Household png) of CGD by 15-20%. We understand govt has reduced 4mmscmd APM allocation to CGD and diverted the same gas to ONGC OPAL plant
- currently segment gets 65-70% APM allocation and it has been coming down by 2-3% every qtr as APM production is limited
- CGD companies have to replace this gas with market price non APM or spot/long term LNG. Given both non APM (can be bought at IGX but can't be such big vol of 4mmscmd) and long term LNG contract are not available immediately.
- for time being CGDs are required to replace the shortfall with a costlier spot LNG which is at $13/mmbtu or non APM is at $10.2/mmbtu vs $6.5/mmbtu for APM.
- for most CGD cost of gas will go up by $0.6-1/mmbtu depend on replace from non APM or spot LNG.
- CGDs will have to pass rising cost of gas procurement to consumers through price increase and expect CNG Price increase of Rs 2-3.5 per kg increase (3-5% increase) over next few days and this will impact vol growth profile for CNG.
Nifty above 25,100 mark; Up over 80 points off day's low
Alert: HDFC Bank contributing the most in Nifty's up move
VENUGOPAL GARRE BERNSTEIN
'Indian economy going through a phase of fatigue'
Have not seen the impact of slowdown on earnings so far
Believe corporates will focus on discounts to generate volume growth
Seeing material slowdown in govt capex
Believe CV demand will slow down materially from here
See room for earnings growth for Power cos
Believe power capex will be a 3-4 year cycle, it has just started off
Overweight Quick Commerce, Prefer quick commerce and organised retail over traditional retail
ARVIND SANGER GEOSPHERE CAPITAL
Stimulus Amount Was Slightly Disappointing
There Are Some Signs That Indicate Indian Economy Is Going Through A Bit Of A Slowdown
Indian Market Is Only Slightly Less Expensive Than What It Was
Private Banks Are Trading At Reasonable Valuations Vs Peer And Own Historical Avg
Private Banks Are An Important Part Of India's Growth Story
Global Markets
Nikkei shut today
Strait Times 15 points 0.42 %
Hang Seng 87 points -0.41 %
Taiwan 90 points 0.39 %
Kospi 25 points 0.95 %
Shanghai 54 points 1.63 %
Dow Futures 1 points
FTSE Futures 7 points
Dollar Index 102.817, 0.14 point 0.14
Crude (Brent) 78.08, 0.94 point -1.19%
Crude (WTI) 74.64, 0.92 point -1.22%
Dollar Rupee 84.0725, 0.015 point
GURCHARAN DAS PROCTER & GAMBLE
• It Is Good That The Family And Management Has Been Different For The Tata Group
Can Expect Good Sense To Scale Tata Biz & Stable Influence From Noel
• A Good Relationship Between N Chandra & Noel Will Be Very Important

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