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October 08, 2024

Q2 Earnings Date
10th Oct: GM Breweries
10th Oct: AnandRathi
10th Oct: IREDA
10th Oct: Tata Elxsi
10th Oct: TCS
14th Oct: Angel One
14th Oct: Gopal Snacks
14th Oct: HCL Tech
15th Oct: HDFC AMC
15th Oct: HCFC Life
16th Oct: Bajaj Auto
16th Oct: CRISIL
16th Oct: LTTS
16th Oct: Mphasis
17th Oct: Nestle
17th Oct: Infosys
17th Oct: Wipro
18th Oct: ICICI General
19th Oct: HDFC Bank
19th Oct: Tech Mahindra
21st Oct: Ultratech
22nd Oct: Coforge
22nd Oct: ICICI Pru
22nd Oct: Persistent
22nd Oct: Zensar
23rd Oct: KPIT Tech
23rd Oct: Navin Fluorine
23rd Oct: Pidilite
24th Oct: Cyient
24th Oct: Max India
24th Oct: NAM India
24th Oct: UBL
25th Oct: Atul
25th Oct: Novartis
25th Oct: Poonawala Fincorp
26th Oct: ICICI Bank
26th Oct: JK Cement
26th Oct: IDFC First Bank
28th Oct: CAMS
28th Oct: Gillette
29th Oct: Cipla
29th Oct: Dabur
29th Oct: Honeywell
Heared from street: Hedge funds had to sell 6 bn$ post China market closure and they sold it.... today was last lot. Today they sold 1 bn $. Now all they will invest in CHINA Tom morning. CHINA IS already up 13% and their 6 bn $ investment could make it 7% more costly. That entry is at 20% premium. Goldman Sach says they have 20% more upside China. We'll you all know what is what what is what .... dii were fully aware of this and squeezed hedge funds to last mile... dii bought 1.6 bn $ today .. the difference i assume clean up of HNI retail margin etc etc ... so let us where we close tomorrow !
Instl. Investors EQUITY Cash Trades PROV. - 07/10/2024 : Rs. CRS.
FIIS : SELL -8,293 (14,057-22,350)
DIIS : BUY +13,245 (23,924-10,679)
Summary of Market Participants Positioning in the Derivative Segment for 7th October, 2024.
Synopsis:
FIIs sold to the tune of 8293.41 cr. while DIIs bought to the tune of 13245.12 cr.
FIIs' Long short ratio for index futures is at 46.86 as on a net basis, they sold 117711 index futures.
On the stock futures front, FIIs have bought to the tune of 60981 contracts, while on the Options Front, FIIs sold 34506 call contracts and bought 69340 Put Option contracts.
https://x.com/_sbisecurities/status/1843296518272606269?s=46
Navigating the Opening Bell with SBI Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights you should not miss !!
https://x.com/_sbisecurities/status/1843479917415280650?s=46
Do share it with your Friends so that they too can benefit from the 360-degree views on the Market.
~Nomura
India Power & Utilities | Initiate coverage of Tata Power (TPWR IN, Buy, TP INR560) and JSW Energy (JSW IN, Buy, TP INR885).
Tata Power (TPWR IN, Buy): We expect TPWR to deliver a robust 16% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27F driven by a 2x increase in RE capacity, robust delivery on INR157bn solar EPC orderbook and a jump in Odisha profitability.
JSW Energy (JSW IN, Buy): We expect JSW to deliver a solid 38% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27F, underpinned by an over 2x increase in operational capacity and healthy margins on RE generation projects.
When a market is cascading downward, investors can often be heard to say, “We’re not going to try to catch a falling knife.” In other words, “The trend is downward and there’s no way to know when it’ll stop, so why should we buy before we’re sure the bottom has been reached?”
What I think they’re really saying is, “We’re scared—in particular of buying before the decline has stopped, and thus of looking bad—so we’re going to wait until the bottom has been reached, the dust has settled, and the uncertainty has been resolved.” But hopefully by now I’ve made it abundantly clear that when the dust has settled and investors’ nerves have steadied, the bargains will be gone.
At Oaktree, we strongly reject the idea of waiting for the bottom to start buying.
First, there’s absolutely no way to know when the bottom has been reached. There’s no neon sign that lights up. The bottom can be recognized only after it has been passed, since it is defined as the day before the recovery begins. By definition, this can be identified only after the fact.
And second, it’s usually during market slides that you can buy the largest quantities of the thing you want, from sellers who are throwing in the towel and while the non-knife-catchers are hugging the sidelines. But once the slide has culminated in a bottom, by definition there are few sellers left to sell, and during the ensuing rally it’s buyers who predominate. Thus the selling dries up and would-be buyers face growing competition.
~Howard Marks
#CNBCTV18Alert | #China markets open sharply higher, extending stimulus rally after weeklong break, Shanghai Composite up more than 8%
#ChinaOpen #Shanghai
India Daybook – Stocks in News
Ashok Leyland: Company wins India’s largest order for electric trucks at Rs 150 crore. (Positive)
Nuvoco Vistas: Company secured 3 limestone blocks in Rajasthan, estimated at 28.43 million tons (Positive)
Swelect Energy: Company unit has successfully commissioned an additional solar power plant having the capacity of 7 mw at Pisanathur village and Pudunagar village at Pudukottai district, Tamil Nadu. (Positive)
Nimbus Projects: Company developing housing project with nimbus Propmart, Estimated cost of project Rs 6.6 billion, sales revenue Rs 8.5 billion (Positive)
Piccadily Agro: Indri single malt launches ‘the city series’ with first travel retail exclusive for Bengaluru duty-free (Positive)
Juniper Hotels: Company entered into secured term loan agreement for Rs 2.8 billion with ICICI Bank (Positive)
Puravankara: Company has acquired 3 acres 4 guntas of land in North Bangalore to develop a residential project. (Positive)
BEL: Company gets orders worth more than Ra 5 billion (Positive)
Cyient DLM: Company has more inorganic growth plans on the cards after acquisition of Altek Electronics (Positive)
ENIL: MGID and company partner to accelerate Native Advertising adoption across India (Positive)
Ani Integrated Services: Company gets order worth upto Rs 1.73 billion for 3 Years (Positive)
Sarvotech: Receives an additional order to Build EV Charging Stations for Nashik Municipal Corporation (Positive)
Chalet Hotels: Company has announced a scheme of arrangement and amalgamation with its subsidiaries, Sonmil Industries Private Limited and the Dukes Retreat Private Limited. (Positive)
Modern Engineering: Company has entered into a MOU with Karmvir intelligent Infra Private Limited for Acquiring of office premises on Long Lease Basis in Commercial (Positive)
PN Gadgil: MD Saurabh Gadgil bets on strong gold demand during Dussehra, Diwali and the upcoming wedding season. (Positive)
Lemon Tree: Company signs license agreement for 54 room hotel in Udaipur, Rajasthan (Positive)
BCPL Railway Infra: BCPL Railway Infra’s subsidiary company "BCL Bio Energy” start crude edible oil production at its 300 Ton per Day Edible Oil Extraction Plant in Burdwan (Positive)
Zodiac Energy: Company bags order ₹154.27 Cr from Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (Positive)
Oil upstream stocks: Brent crude rises to 80/bbl for the first time since August (Positive)
HEG: Company said they have bought 8.23% shares of their competitor Graftech international for ₹248 cr (Positive)
Mindtek: Company will reward its shareholders one extra share for every four shares they already own (Positive)
Tata Power: Company will announce its Q2 FY25 financial results on October 30, 2024. (Neutral)
Craftsman Automation: Acquisition of securities of sunbeam Light weighting solutions; Company subscribed to OCDS of sunbeam for a consideration Rs 1.36 billion, as per terms of OCDS, Company has option to convert OCDS into shares (Neutral)
Hi-Tech Pipes: Company approves floor price for issue at Rs 194.98 per share via QIP (Neutral)
HDFC Bank: Company board approved sale of 100% stake in HDFC EDU to Vama Sundari investments; sale worth Rs 1.92 billion, entity being sold belongs to education services sector. (Neutral)
Star Cement: Company has appointed Mr. Dilip Kumar Agarwal as Chief Commercial & Corporate Affairs Officer, effective October 7, 2024. (Neutral)
Electro Steel Castings: Company remitted Rs 415 million for acquisition of shares of Singardo international, Singardo will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Company. (Neutral)
Tata Motors: JLR Retail sales in Q2 FY25 were 103,108 units, down 3% vs Q2 FY24, JLR wholesales in Q2 FY25 were 87,303 units, down 10% vs Q2 FY24. (Neutral)
Sumitomo Chemical: Board Meeting on Oct 28 to consider Q2 Results (Neutral)
Stylam Industries: Board Meeting on Oct 15 to consider Q2 Results (Neutral)
Bajaj Hind: Company terminates its joint venture agreement with EverEnviro Resource Management. (Neutral)
Shakti Pumps: Board of directors approves increase in authorised share capital of the firm by Rs 150 crore. (Neutral)
Nykaa: Sees 'gradual' revival in H2 on festive & wedding season. (Neutral)
Cholamandalam Investment: Company appoints Ravindra Kumar Kunduh as Managing Director of the company w.e.f October 7. (Neutral)
Paras Defence: Company closes QIP, sets issue price at Rs 1,045/share. (Neutral)
Hero Motocorp: Hero Motors withdraws its draft papers for its 900 crore IPO. (Negative)
Ircon: Apex Buildsys files a claim worth Rs 38.71 crore against company over disputes related to their Raebareli project. (Negative)
OLA Elec: Company received show cause notice from the Central Consumer Protection Authority for alleged violation of consumer rights, misleading advertisement and unfair trade practices (Negative)
Nomura on Power Utilities
See significant opportunities across entire energy value chain ranging from solar module manufacturing to renewable energy (RE) generation & transmission & distribution
Expect India’s energy demand to register a 7% CAGR over FY24-FY30F
Initiate Buy on Tata Power, TP Rs 560
Expect TPWR to deliver a robust 16% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27F driven by a 2x increase in RE capacity, robust delivery on Rs 157bn solar EPC orderbook & jump in Odisha profitability.
Initiate Buy on JSW Energy, TP Rs 885
Expect JSW to deliver a solid 38% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27F, underpinned by an over 2x increase in operational capacity & healthy margins on RE generation projects.
CLSA on M&M
Upgrade to O-P, TP Rs 3400
Profitable growth in SUVs and rising ROE to drive sustainable re-rating
Led by XUV 3X0, Thar Roxx, & upcoming EV models, expect MM to spruce up its SUV scale & ASP further, keeping segmental EBIT margin at 9% for FY26-27CL
Post flat volumes in FY23-25CL, expect domestic tractor industry to revive from FY26, with favourable reservoir levels being key driver
With ROE at 20%+ since FY24, MM is trading at 3% FY26CL FCF yield, despite capex at Rs70bn+pa
Nomura on Tata Motors
Buy, TP Rs 1303
JLR reports 3%/10% y-y decrease in retail & wholesales vol for 2QFY25
Est. annual sales of 403k (flat y-y) for JLR in FY25F
Est JLR’s EBIT margin at 8.3% for FY25F vs guidance of =>8.5%
Nomura on Nykaa
Neutral, TP Rs 203
2Q update: Growth improvement on track, led by BPC
Overall, for 2QFY25F, expect consolidated revenue growth of 26% y-y & EBITDA margin at 6% (+50bp q-q).
This is still lower compared to FY25F expectation of 29% y-y rev & EBITDA margin of 7.5%
HSBC on Cable & Wire OEMs
Retain Buy on Polycab (TP raised to Rs 7800)
Retain Hold on KEI Ind (TP raised to Rs 4350)
Retain Hold on R R Kabel, TP Rs 1900
C&W demand continues to be strong
High base & copper volatility to impact EBITDA margins of Polycab & R R Kabel
HSBC on Zomato
Buy, TP raised to Rs 330
FD competitive intensity seems to be stabilising, though Zomato still has scope to improve take rates
In QC, Swiggy is struggling to keep pace with Blinkit, though it has significant scope to expand take rates & margins
CITI on Info Edge
Buy, TP Rs 8320
Reported 14% YoY growth in recruitment billings in 2Q FY25 (1Q: 9% YoY; 4QFY24: 7% YoY), sustaining acceleration in billings growth seen since 4QFY24
Expect overall EBITDA at Rs2.7bn (+11% YoY) with overall margins up 10bps YoY (+180bps QoQ)
Nomura on Power Utilities
See significant opportunities across entire energy value chain ranging from solar module manufacturing to renewable energy (RE) generation & transmission & distribution
Expect India’s energy demand to register a 7% CAGR over FY24-FY30F
Initiate Buy on Tata Power, TP Rs 560
Expect TPWR to deliver a robust 16% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27F driven by a 2x increase in RE capacity, robust delivery on Rs 157bn solar EPC orderbook & jump in Odisha profitability.
Initiate Buy on JSW Energy, TP Rs 885
Expect JSW to deliver a solid 38% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-27F, underpinned by an over 2x increase in operational capacity & healthy margins on RE generation projects.
CLSA on M&M
Upgrade to O-P, TP Rs 3400
Profitable growth in SUVs and rising ROE to drive sustainable re-rating
Led by XUV 3X0, Thar Roxx, & upcoming EV models, expect MM to spruce up its SUV scale & ASP further, keeping segmental EBIT margin at 9% for FY26-27CL
Post flat volumes in FY23-25CL, expect domestic tractor industry to revive from FY26, with favourable reservoir levels being key driver
With ROE at 20%+ since FY24, MM is trading at 3% FY26CL FCF yield, despite capex at Rs70bn+pa
Nomura on Tata Motors
Buy, TP Rs 1303
JLR reports 3%/10% y-y decrease in retail & wholesales vol for 2QFY25
Est. annual sales of 403k (flat y-y) for JLR in FY25F
Est JLR’s EBIT margin at 8.3% for FY25F vs guidance of =>8.5%
Nomura on Nykaa
Neutral, TP Rs 203
2Q update: Growth improvement on track, led by BPC
Overall, for 2QFY25F, expect consolidated revenue growth of 26% y-y & EBITDA margin at 6% (+50bp q-q).
This is still lower compared to FY25F expectation of 29% y-y rev & EBITDA margin of 7.5%
HSBC on Cable & Wire OEMs
Retain Buy on Polycab (TP raised to Rs 7800)
Retain Hold on KEI Ind (TP raised to Rs 4350)
Retain Hold on R R Kabel, TP Rs 1900
C&W demand continues to be strong
High base & copper volatility to impact EBITDA margins of Polycab & R R Kabel
HSBC on Zomato
Buy, TP raised to Rs 330
FD competitive intensity seems to be stabilising, though Zomato still has scope to improve take rates
In QC, Swiggy is struggling to keep pace with Blinkit, though it has significant scope to expand take rates & margins
CITI on Info Edge
Buy, TP Rs 8320
Reported 14% YoY growth in recruitment billings in 2Q FY25 (1Q: 9% YoY; 4QFY24: 7% YoY), sustaining acceleration in billings growth seen since 4QFY24
Expect overall EBITDA at Rs2.7bn (+11% YoY) with overall margins up 10bps YoY (+180bps QoQ)
Nifty closed @24,796 (-219) and Sensex @81,050 (-638) on Monday GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,864 50 (as of 7:30 am)
FIIs net sold equities in cash to the tune of Rs 8,293 cr whereas DIIs bought equities in cash worth Rs.13,245 cr on October 7 2024
The central government issued a show cause notice to Ola Electric due to thousands of customer complaints about the quality of its best selling electric scooters
Bajaj Finserv Q2 Update Bajaj Allianz GIC's underwritten premium in September was Rs 1 689 crore, while the gross direct premium underwritten up to September 2024 was Rs 10,557 crore
Nykaa Q2 Update Strong performance in 2QFY25 with consolidated net revenue growth of mid twenties, according to provisional figures released by the company
Sobha Q2 Update Strong sales performance with Rs 1,179 cr in new area sales with an average price realisation of Rs 12,674 per square foot
Auto retail sales slump by more than 9 in Sept PV sales slip 19 %: FADA
HDFC Bank said that its board has approved 100% stake sale of subsidiary HDFC Education to Vama Sundari Investments in an all cash deal amounting to Rs 192 cr
Tata Motors owned Jaguar Land Rover reported a 3% decline in retail sales at 1,03,108 units in 2QFY25 as compared to the year ago period It expects production and wholesale volumes to "pick up strongly in the second half of the fiscal"
Kalyan Jewellers sees 37% revenue growth in 2QFY25 on strong gold demand For its India operations, Kalyan’s revenue grew by 39% y/y, with same store sales growth of nearly 23%
Hero Motors has withdrawn its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) for the proposed Rs 900 crore Initial Public Offering (IPO)
Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank (-2.6), ICICI Bank (-2.0) and Wipro (-0.8)
Debt:
10 yr G sec (old) yield rose by 2 bps to 6.85 on Monday
RBI accepted Rs 36 825 cr against notified amount of Rs 75 000 cr in 4 day variable rate reverse repo(VRRR) auction
RBI has asked banks to refrain from betting heavily against the rupee in an effort to support the currency, as per media reports
Income Tax department has sought public opinions to simplify 6 decade old Income Tax Act, focusing on clearer language, reducing disputes and compliance, and removing outdated provisions
India’s commerce department is addressing exporters' credit issues by exploring options like a credit guarantee fund for export finance
Commodities
Brent crude was up by 4 66 to 81 13 /barrel on Monday with Brent surpassing 80 per barrel for the first time since August as the increased risk of a region wide Middle East war jolted investors out of record bearish positions amassed last month
Gold futures settled lower as the U S dollar held strong and recent employment data prompted investors to scale back expectations of a big rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November Spot gold was down by 0.27% to $2,643.07 oz on Monday
The government does not see any major impact on oil supplies to the country owing to the ongoing conflict in W est Asia, said Union minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Puri on Monday. However, any further escalation of the situation could hit energy availability, he added
Russia is interested in increasing coal exports to India to tap into growing demand for the fuel in the Asian country, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said
Currency:
Rupee remained flat and settled at 83.98 against the US dollar on Monday, despite outflow of FIIs from Indian equity market
US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.11% to end at 102.49 on Monday, as Fed speakers are expected to reiterate a gradual approach
USD/CAD increased by 0.32% to end at 1.362 on Monday, on expectations the Fed will not extend its policy easing spell with an aggressive approach
USD/AUD increased by 0.69% to end at 1.481 on Monday, as US job data wipes out Fed large rate cut bets and dismal market sentiment weighs heavily on the Australian Dollar
GBP/USD fell by 0.33% to end at 1.308 on Monday, as Growing Middle East tensions weigh heavily on risk sensitive assets
International Markets
U S markets fell on Monday with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq down by 0.94%, 0.96% and 1.17% respectively. All 3 major futures indices are trading between -3 to +3 bps at the time of writing the report
German factory orders declined by 5.8% MoM in Aug 24 vs an increase of 3.9% MoM in Jul 24 Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted factory orders to decline by 2.0% MoM in Aug 24
Japan household spending increased by 2.0% MoM in Aug 24 vs a decline of 1.7% MoM in Jul 24 and as compared to estimates of a 0.5% MoM increase On a YoY basis household spending declined by 1.9% YoY in Aug 24 vs an increase of 0.1% YoY in Jul 24 but was above estimates of a 2.6% YoY decline
Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.2% MoM in Aug 24 vs July’s revised 0% and was in line with estimates of a 0.2% MoM increase On a YoY basis retails sales increased by 0.8% YoY in Aug 24 vs a decline of 0.1% YoY in Jul 24 but was below estimates of a 1.0% YoY increase

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