Market Highlights

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Get the latest Indian stock / share market highlights, BSE/NSE stock news, business research reports & details - updated daily by Money Times.

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July 30, 2024

• Jefferies On HPCL
• Underperform Call, Target Rs 315
• Q1 Showed Weak Set Of Numbers With EBITDA Down 56% QoQ But Was 21% Ahead Of Est
• EBITDA Came Higher Than Est On Higher Marketing Inventory Gains While Refining Was Weaker
• Co Remains Vulnerable With No Change To Retail Prices Post Elections
• Refining Margin Should Remain Rangebound, Keeping Integrated Margin Under Pressure
• Keep FY25/26 Estimates Largely Unchanged; Risk-reward Is Unfavorable After Steep Rally
• Citi on HPCL
• Buy Call, Target Rs 420
• Q1 EBITDA Came Well Below Estimate
• GRM Was Expectedly Down QoQ From $7/bbl To $5/bbl, Slightly Ahead Of Our $4.5/bbl Est)
• Miss Was Primarily On Account Of An LPG Under Recovery Of Rs 250 Cr
• Net Income At Rs 360 Cr (Down 87% QoQ) Was Therefore, Well Below Rs 890 Cr Est
• Govt Has Not Announced Any Budgetary Compensation For LPG
• Compensation For LPG Could Possibly Be Announced Later In Year
• Compensation For LPG Will Help OMCs Reverse These Under-Recoveries
• UBS on HPCL
• Buy, TP Rs 445
• LPG under-recovery & low distillate yield impact Q1 earnings
• Strong physical performance; earnings above UBSe
• GRM at $5/bbl(in-line) as distillate yield lags
• Earnings impacted by Rs25bn of LPG under-recoveries for qtr
• JPM on HPCL
• Neutral, TP Rs 335
• Weak 1Q PAT, 73% below JPMe
• Moderate miss on Gross Profits translated to sharp bottom line miss due to co’s higher-than-peers P&L leverage
• Higher operating leverage can help earnings surprise if Oil prices fall &retail prices remain stagnant
• Jefferies on BEL
• Buy, Target Raised To Rs 370
• Q1 EBITDA Was 33% Above Expectations As Both Margin & Revenue Surprised
• Co Is Market Leader In Domestic Defense Electronics
• Co Benefits From Spend Across The Army, Navy And Air Force
• Management Remains Upbeat On Order Flow Outlook
• Non-defence Progress Remains Muted
• FY24-FY27 Should See Double-digit Revenue Growth Based On Order Book And Pipeline
• Jefferies on NTPC
• Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 485
• Q1FY25 Profit Was 11% Above Expectations
• Fixed Cost Under Recovery Was `200 Cr Vs `100 Cr YoY, Impact Was Offset By Higher Coal/Gas PLFs
• Q1 Capacity Addition Was Muted At 90 MW
• Management Guides For 23 GW Addition Over FY25E-27 Led By Renewables
• Renewable Energy Capacity Ramp-Up Remain Re-Rating Drivers
• Pilot Initiatives On Green Hydrogen Remain Re-Rating Drivers
• CLSA on NTPC
• O-P, TP Rs 441
• 1Q rec. PAT up 23% YoY(5% ahead of est.)
• on 13% regulated equity growth & favourable regulations FY24-29
• Core execution robust but renewable disappointed
• Co claimed it had pipeline of 26GW of regulated projects & 24GW in non-fossil projects
• HSBC on NTPC
• Hold, TP Rs 355
• NTPC’s analyst meeting was all about thermal; management did not comment on renewable plan, citing upcoming IPO
• Intends to order out 15GW over next two fiscal years, install 60GW by 2032, & progress nuclear capacity
• BOFA Sec on NTPC
• U-P, TP Rs 271
• Earnings in line; capacity additions guidance upgrade; see delays
• Thermal ordering guidance maintained: 15.2GW by FY27
• Execution a risk, valns rich despite optimistic assumptions
• MS on ACC
• Equal-Weight Call, Target Rs 2,930
• Q1 Key Takeaways Include Volumes (Cement + Clinker) Which Were Up 9% YoY
• Q1 Volumes Were Much Higher Than Estimate Of 4% YoY
• Realisations Were Weaker, Moderating 3.1% QoQ Vs Forecast Of 1.5% Sequential Moderation
• Fuel Costs Did Better Than Expected
• Better Fuel Costs Benefits Were Broadly Offset By Higher Raw Materials & ‘Other’ Costs
• Jefferies on ACC
• Buy Call, Target Rs 3,045
• Q1 Earnings Data Showed EBITDA In-line
• 1Q Volumes Grew 9% YoY, Which Were A Beat
• Realisation Was Lower 3% QoQ Vs Estimate Of 2-2.5% QoQ Dip
• PAT At Rs 360 Cr Vs Est Of `380 Cr Was Lower 22% YoY On Higher Depreciation
• Cash Position Dipped Due To Opportunistic Buying Of Input Material (RM, Fuel) & Capex Purposes
• Nomura on ACC
• Reduce, TP Rs 2200
• 1Q: Strong vol growth delivers marginal beat on EBITDA
• Vols grew 9% y-y to 10.2MT & beat est. by 5%
• Expect higher share of MSA (master supply agreement) volumes, resulting in such high vol
• Blended EBITDA/t of Rs 664/t in lin
• CLSA on ACC
• Hold, TP Rs 2730
• 1Q Ebitda of Rs6.8bn (-12% YoY) largely in line as higher volumes offset weak profitability.
• Volumes grew 9% YoY to 10.2mt
• Realisations fell 3% QoQ – in line with estimates
• Nomura on Colgate
• Sell Call, Target Rs 2,800
• Q1 Was All-round Beat; Volume Growth Of 6-7% Vs Est. Of 2%
• Strong GPM/OPM Expansion Continues Driving 22% EBITDA Growth
• Increase FY25/26/27 EPS By 4.0%/2.8%/1.6% To Factor In Q1 Beat
• Believe Risk-reward Is Unfavourable Given It Is Entering A Moderate EPS Growth Phase
• Jefferies on Colgate
• Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 3,570
• Co Delivered An Impressive Growth In Revenues Led By Confluence Of Macro Factors
• Co Saw Pick Up In Rural Along With Strong Execution
• Higher Than Expected Gross Margins Along With Operating Leverage Benefits Helped
• Co Reported Earnings Well Ahead Of Estimates
• Beat Q1 Result Drove Us To Upgrade Earning Estimates For 3rd Quarter In A Row
• CLSA on Colgate
• Upgrade to hold, TP Raised to Rs 3157
• 1Q sales 3% above est & Ebitda 2% above est
• Toothpaste volume growth of high single digits was above estimate of c.6%.
• Rural grew faster than urban for 2nd qtr in a row
• HSBC on Colgate
• Hold, TP Rs 3000
• Stock’s impressive run-up likely a result of revenue growth, margin reset & rise of market defensiveness
• Q1 results stand out by a wide margin; high-single-digit vol growth with significant beat on revenue & profits
• Vals rich; see ltd upside
• BoFA on Colgate
• U-P, TP Rs 3175
• 1Q ahead of expectations
• Margin trajectory could normalize
• Medium-term upside potential priced in
• 1Q performance was strong even last year, but then growth rates normalized thereafter.
• "Never confuse what you're offered, with what you're worth."
• FX Hub:
• *Snapshot:
• Fed expected to hold, BoE forecast to cut rates 25 bps. The BoJ is expected to raise rates at its July 31 meeting. DXY finding decent support at 104.00 levels. Brent Crude prices further lower. For USDINR, 83.60 acts as a support while 83.80 a resistance.
• Market Brief:
• - Two-day FOMC meeting concludes on Wednesday with a plausible commitment to unchanged rates.
• - Markets are broadly anticipating at least a quarter-point rate cut on September 18, with rate markets pricing in 90% odds of a 25 bps trim and hopeful 10% bets for a double-cut according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
• - QoQ German GDP is expected to ease to 0.1% in Q2 compared to the previous print of 0.2%, while annualized pan-EU GDP growth is forecast to increase to 0.6% from the previous 0.4%, though the QoQ figure for the second quarter is expected to tick down to 0.2% from the previous 0.3%.
• - The Bank of England is broadly expected to deliver a quarter-point rate trim later this week on Thursday, but odds are still up in the air with the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast to vote 5–to-4 in favor of a 25 bps rate cut. At the BoE’s previous rate meeting, the MPC voted 7-to-2 in favor of keeping rate cuts on hold.
• - Israel vowed retaliation against Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah in response to the Golan Heights attack on Saturday, though said that it wants to avoid dragging the Middle East into an all-out war.
• - Oil fell to the lowest in seven weeks on doubts about the strength of global demand, while investors looked ahead to OPEC+’s meeting for guidance on supplies.
• *Major events (IST):
• - 11:30am: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
• - 1:30pm: Italian and French Prelim GDP q/q (EUR)
• - 2:30pm: Prelim Flash GDP q/q (EUR)
• - 6:30pm: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (USD)
• - 7:30pm: CB Consumer Confidence & JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
• *Commodities/Debt:
• - DXY: 104.62, Brent Oil: $79.46, Gold: $2380, 10Y Gsec: 6.92, 10Y UST: 4.18
• *Technicals (Support and Resistance):
• a. EUR/USD: 1.0770-1.0880
• b. GBP/USD: 1.2780-1.2880
• c. USD/JPY: 152.50-155.20
• News Headlines from Business News Agencies:
• Business Standard
• Airtel begins re-farming mid-band spectrum to meet growth in 5G traffic
• Govt okays procurement of navigation system for armoured fighting vehicles
• Hindustan Zinc to explore avenues of zinc applications in batteries: Hebbar
• PwC India, Microsoft India ink agreement to strengthen cybersecurity
• Power Grid planning Rs 40,000 cr undersea interconnection with Middle East
• Domestic airlines reported 427 technical faults in aircraft this year: Govt
• Govt puts privatisation of Container Corporation of India on backburner
• Strides Pharma reports profit of Rs 68.3 crore in Q1, revenue up 16%
• Average cost of data breaches in India hits $2.18 million: RBI report
• Exide Industries' lithium-ion cell project phase-I to be completed by FY25
• Rajasthan govt to form a three-member panel to control industrial pollution
• Economic Times
• Australia to invest $18 million for Cable Connectivity & Resilience Centre in Indo-Pacific
• Govt says airlines sensitised to exercise moderation in pricing of air tickets
• Rapido turns unicorn with $120 million from WestBridge Capital
• Carlyle to sell upto 6.4% stake in PNB Housing Finance for Rs 1,256 crore on Tuesday
• Govt plans to operationalise Car Nicobar, 11 other airports under UDAN this year
• Digitalisation will help rupee become global: RBI report
• Sify appoints former Tata Communications executive CR Srinivasan as CEO of digital biz
• Negotiating teams to restart India FTA talks as soon as possible, says UK
• Govt allows 1,000 MT non-basmati white rice export to Namibia
• Filatex Fashions bags Rs 293 crore export order
• Goodluck India Q1 Results: Net profit jumps 22% YoY to Rs 35 crore
• Mint
• Tata Motors' Tamil Nadu JLR manufacturing unit's operations may begin in 2025
• Central government debt set to double to ₹185 trillion by FY25
• TCS expects rise in predictive intelligence usage in aviation to cut emissions
• Components makers Uno Minda, Bosch may soon get DVA certificates under auto PLI
• India to see Ola Electric’s first motorcycle with largest EV batteries in 2025
• Ola receives legal notice from MapMyIndia over data copying allegations: Report
• Drugmaker Sinergium will share bird flu vaccine data globally, says WHO
• ICICI Bank is going strong, but proposed LCR norms pose risk for sector
• Bank of Japan meets as volatile yen, sluggish economy fuel rate hike debate
• Reliance on the backfoot after Supreme Court stays a Gujarat High Court order
• TCS, Infosys trail Accenture, global rivals in race for AI-project bookings
• Voltamp Transformers
• Expanding the capacity by 6000 MVA p.a. with a capex of 200 crore
• Existing capacity - 14000 MVA p.a.
• Current Utilization - 93%
• Himadri has steadily climbed the value chain in the coal tar industry, offering value-added products such as speciality carbon black, refined naphthalene, and himcoat enamel. These are used in industries like defence, aluminium, and tyres. it has acquired bankrupt Birla Tyres to enhance its forward integration in the tyre industry, leveraging its existing carbon black production, a key input for tyres.
• Nifty closed @24,836 (+1.25) and Sensex @81,356 (+23.12) on Monday GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,858 (as of 7:30 a.m)
• FIIs net sold equities in cash to the tune of Rs 2,475 cr whereas DIIs bought equities in cash worth Rs.5,666 cr on July 29 2024
• Aditya Birla Group aims to generate $25 bn in revenue from its consumer businesses over the next five years, fuelled by the aggressive ramp up in paints and jewellery
• CESC acquires 64% stake in Purvah Green Power for Rs 205 cr.
• Hindustan Zinc in its efforts to support the ongoing global energy transition and thrust on emerging clean tech, will explore new avenues of zinc applications in batteries
• Carlyle Group entity Quality Investment Holdings Pcc plans to sell up to 6.4% stake in PNB Housing Finance Ltd for Rs 1,255 crore via open market deals
• Colgate Palmolive reported a 33% y/y increase in net profit at Rs 364 cr in 1QFY25 helped by demand pickup and good performance of products
• Adani Wilmar reported a net profit of Rs 313 cr in 1QFY25 compared to a loss of Rs 79 cr in the year ago period, reflecting higher volumes and sales growth
• Bharat Electronics reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 791 cr 47% y/y) in 1QFY25 as against Rs 538 cr during the year ago period
• Net profit of Kansai Nerolac Paints declined 69% y/y to Rs 231 cr in 1QFY25 as against Rs 738 cr during the previous quarter ended June 2023
• Kalpataru Projects reported about 26% y/y decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 84 cr in 1QFY25 dragged by higher expenses as compared to Rs 113 cr in the year ago period
• HPCL reported a massive 90% y/y drop in consolidated net profit to Rs 634 cr in 1QFY25 reflecting weak gross refining margins (GRM) and elevated costs
• Indian ADRs: Dr Reddy’s Labs (+1.0%), Infosys (-0.8%) and HDFC Bank (-0.8%)