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February 22, 2024

SEBI's LAX, LAG AND LACK ENCOURAGE STOCK MARKET FRAUD VIA MASS MEDIA
THE recent case of Market manipulation and defrauding the masses to earn unfair profits from the market by five 'Guest Experts' on ZEE Business Hindi TV channel stinks of the Nefarious Modus Operandi used by former CNBC AWAAZ EDITOR, PRADEEP PANDYA, FORMER CNBC ANCHOR HEMANT GHAI and former CNBC AWAAZ Guest Expert Alpesh Furiya to mint illicit profits, a few years ago.
The sad part of the story is that even as the past cases await final judgement, newer instantances of Abuse of Media Power, which makes these characters influence millions of people within a few minutes, are increasing at an alarming pace.
A questionnaire sent by Fortune India to CNBC (NETWORK 18), ZEE BUSINESS, ET NOW AND ET SWADESH about the criteria of selection of TV guests who appear on the CHANNELS and whether THERE IS ANY OFFICIAL WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR APPROVING THE LIST OF GUEST EXPERTS. The questionnaire also asked whether there is a practice of evaluating ‘trading calls’ given by these experts and whether any official from the organisation analyses their performance. Fortune India also enquired if there are ongoing SEBI investigations against any past or present anchors, reporters, or guest experts. NONE OF THE TV CHANNELS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE QUESTIONS TILL THE TIME OF THE FILING OF THIS STORY.
R.S. software ltd nse and BSE
Was in ESM 1 from 14th Feb was up 5%,15th Feb up5%,16 th feb up5%
Last week it was ESM 1 and up 15%. it means it was to go to ESM 2 but still it is in ESM 1. This week also daily up 5% and this week 3 days up 15% but still not transfer from esm 1 to transfer to ESM 2
Why?
there wasted interest. Already inform BSE surveillance NSE surveillance and sebi still no action.
Khello India khello
*CLSA on OMCs*
Sell on HP, BP & IOC
While a cut in retail prices of diesel or petrol looks less likely now, a 5%-7% rally in crude prices may again raise worries over marketing margins
Govt’s fiscal consolidation goal may make it look at avenues of raising fuel taxes after election.
Large global refining capacity additions, may soon raise doubt over continuation of current high margins
@5.5x FY25 EV/Ebitda (cf. global peer avg of 4.9x), prices of IOC, BP & HP are baking in GRMs of $9-US$12/bbl & marketing margins of Rs2.5-Rs3/litre.
*Jefferies on ABB*
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 6115
4QCY23 EBITDA lower than expectations given 7% rev miss
However, order flow up 35% YoY & provides strong rev growth visibility
Margins flattish at 10 bps YoY improvement, but CY23 margins were up 303 bps YoY at 14.3%
*UBS on ABB*
Buy, TP Rs 5380
Q4CY23: Concludes CY23 on a strong note
New orders at Rs 31.5bn(up 35% YoY) led by sustained base orders & some large value orders in segments like mobility
Commentary strong given strong orders in motion/electrification product segments
*Nomura on ABB*
Resume Buy, TP Rs 5740
Rising convergence between automation, electrification and premiumization
Upbeat on ordering outlook
Margin trajectory of 14.0-14.5% appears sustainable
Trading at ~53x CY25F EPS
*Jefferies on Asian Paints*
U-P, TP Rs 2500
Grasim is set to unveil its 1st paint capacity in Panipat Co is set to launch two more plants by Mar-24
Sector has never seen such massive capacity build-out in such a short span
Expect this to reflect in market shares & margins
*GS on Paytm*
Neutral, TP Cut to Rs 450
Cut reflect potential payments market share loss & slowdown in lending in near term as a consequence of recent RBI directive
Reduce FY24E-26E rev/adj. EBITDA est, by up to c.36%/80%
Now expect FY25 rev to decline 21% YoY(vs 16% growth earlier
*Jefferies on Graphite Cos*
HEG – Buy, TP Rs 2300
Graphite – Buy, TP Rs 650
Both missed Q3 JEFe.
While vol grew YoY due to better utilization, pricing & margin pressure could stay for 2-3 qtrs.
Needle coke is also softening, but est benefit with a lag
Cut FY25-26e EBITDA by 2-7%
*India Daybook – Stocks in News*
*NBCC:* Company gets nod from Noida Authority to develop 5 Amrapali projects worth ₹10,000 cr (Positive)
*Manali Petro:* Company's U.K.-based unit to expand foam control ops in India (Positive)
*Brigade Enterprises:* Company signs a Joint Development Agreement with PVP Ventures to develop a 2.5 million square feet, high-rise residential project (Positive)
*LTIMindtree”* Company signs MoU with Eurolife FFH to setup Gen Al & digital hubs in Europe & India (Positive)
*Apollo Micro:* Company gets sanction for ₹110 crore term loan from SBI (Positive)
*HFCL:* Approves strategic expansion into Europe. (Positive)
*Grauer and Weil:* Board to consider issue of bonus shares on February 26 (Positive)
*JB Chemicals:* Company eyes $100 million revenue from contract manufacturing in 3-5 years. (Positive)
*Home First Finance:* IRDAI grants corp agent (composite) license for soliciting life, general & health insurance (Positive)
*South Indian Bank:* Announces Rs 1,151 crore rights issue. Ratio 1 share for 4 shares and price Rs 22. Record date 27th February (Positive)
*MTAR Tech: Apollo Micro:* Union Cabinet approves amendment in the Foreign Direct Investment policy on Space Sector (Positive)
*Grasim:* Company's Chairman will launch the Birla Opus Paints Business and inaugurate three Birla Opus Paints plants at Panipat, Ludhiana and Cheyyar (Positive)
*Sula Vineyards:* Maharashtra government has issued a Government Resolution for the continuation of the Wine Industrial Promotion Scheme for a period of eight years. (Positive)
*Eureka:* Block deal likely to be worth Rs.700-750 Cr, sources add. (Neutral)
*Axis Bank:* Moody's affirms Bank’s ratings with ‘Stable’ outlook (Neutral)
*Tech Mahindra:* Company announced acquisition of 100% stake in Orchid Cybertech Services (Neutral)
*LTI Mindtree:* Company registers branch office in Czech Republic with effect from February 16. (Neutral)
*JSW Steel:* Company said to seek $750 mn loan for capex: Agencies. (Neutral)
*Welspun Corp:* Company said regarding the deferment of an order, the customer has now been notified about the cancellation of the said order (Neutral)
*Vedanta:* The Tamil Nadu government told the Supreme Court that Vedanta’s Sterlite Copper plant should not be considered a national asset or deemed necessary to reopen to fulfill the country’s copper demand. (Neutral)
*Bank of Baroda:* Bank raised ₹2,500 crore through its second tranche of Basel III compliant Tier 2 Bond. (Neutral)
*Adani Wilmar:* Company said that on 'tough operating conditions' and tropical oils margin. (Negative)
*Zee Entertainment:* The SEBI will question the top management of Zee: Media sources (Negative)
*CLSA: India oil and gas – Blindsided*
*OMCs baking-in high margins and steep premiums to global peers; SELL*
Following the 63%-80% rally in the stock prices of Indian Oil (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BP) and Hindustan Petroleum (HP), we run a three way sensitivity analysis to get a sense of what is priced-in. Our calculations suggests these stocks are pricing-in much higher than historical marketing margins, a continuation of near-record refining margins and a notable premium to the global peer average EV/Ebitda multiple. While a cut in the retail prices of diesel or petrol looks less likely now, a 5%-7% rally in crude prices may again raise worries over marketing margins. The government’s fiscal consolidation goal may make it look at avenues of raising fuel taxes after the elections. These, along with large global refining capacity additions, may soon raise doubt over the continuation of current high margins; we retain our SELL ratings on IOC, BP & HP.
Do Not Fall Prey to following things and preserve your Wealth!
1. Operator-Driven Stocks:
- Investing in stocks based solely on tips from "operators" with questionable track records.
- Focus on bankrupt or near-bankrupt EPC companies with declining business and high debt.
2. SME Stocks:
- Investing in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with minimal compliance requirements.
- Illiquid nature of SME stocks makes exiting difficult, amplifying potential losses.
3. Illiquid Small-Cap Stocks:
- Targeting illiquid small-cap stocks prone to rapid value destruction during market downturns.
- Peaks during bull markets often followed by steep declines.
4. Leverage and Derivatives:
- Utilizing leverage through margin trading or participation in futures and options (F&O) markets.
- Speeds up wealth destruction goals, especially with market tailwinds.
5. Blindly Following Finfluencers:
- Following unregistered and incentivized "finfluencers" who promote excessive trading.
- Encouragement to trade frequently, often leading to significant losses.
6. Ignoring Position Sizing and Asset Allocation:
- Disregarding principles of position sizing and asset allocation.
- Increases susceptibility to significant wealth loss from single poor decisions.
By embracing these strategies, individuals can expedite the process of wealth destruction and undermine their family fortune rapidly.
Asian Paints vs Birla Opus!
Grasim Industries' Entry into Paints Industry.
1. Introduction of Birla Opus Range:
- Grasim Industries set to launch Birla Opus range of products in the paints industry.
- Kumar Mangalam Birla to inaugurate facilities in Panipat, Ludhiana, and Cheyyar.
2. Capex Allocation and Market Strategy:
- 49% of Grasim Industries' capex allocated to paints business in the first half of the fiscal year.
- Targeting larger cities initially, followed by lower-tier markets.
- Onboarding deals, finalizing ads, and establishing depots.
3. Market Impact and Competition:
- Expected to intensify competition in the paints sector.
- Strong distribution reach in cement and putty likely to aid rapid distribution of Birla Opus.
- Smaller players may feel the impact, but Asian Paints expected to remain dominant.
- Other players like JSW Paints and Astral investing in marketing to increase market share.
4. Challenges and Aggressive Strategies:
- Grasim aims for the second spot in the paints market.
- Potential aggressive strategies include higher discounts and promotions, impacting industry profitability.
- Jefferies retains 'underperform' rating on Asian Paints due to high valuation and stagnant growth.
Grasim's entry into the paints industry poses challenges for existing players while signaling potential shifts in market dynamics and competition strategies.

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