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January 01, 2024

The Month January in last few years :
2008:
Nifty peaked around 10th Jan, and was down 30% from there by 22nd, recovering minorly after that.
2009:
Nifty peaked around 7th, down 15% by 23rd.
2010:
Nifty peaked around 18th, down 10% by month end.
2011:
Nifty peaked on 4th, down 13% during the month. Recovery only post March.
2012, 2013: market went up in January.
2014:
Nifty peaked around 23rd, down 5% by month end.
2015:
Nifty was down 5% in 2 trading days in the 1st week, but recovered later.
2016:
Nifty peaked on 1st Jan, before going down 10% by 20th. Further 10% fall in Feb.
2017: market consolidated with bullish signs.
2018:
Very well remember this year. Exuberance of 2017 came to an end around 25th Jan. It was downhill from there.
2019:
Very choppy January. Up down up down.
2020:
Before the severe March crisis, market had started correcting from 20th Jan. Till Feb 1st, 7% down.
2021:
After a super 1 direction run since June 2020, Nifty corrected 8% from 21st Jan till month end, before resuming upward move from 1st Feb (Budget)
2022:
Nifty peaked on 18th Jan, a level which was only seen again on 11th Nov. Post 18th Jan, next one week saw Nifty 6% down. Minor recovery only started mid March.
Reason may be whatever. Januarys has been very volatile & have not been that good for Nifty 50 historically.
*India Daybook – Stocks in News*
*Grasim:* Company commissioned additional 1.23 lakh tons annual capacity of Advanced Materials manufacturing in Bharuch, Gujarat (Positive)
*Alkem:* Company sells St. Louis manufacturing facility in U.S. for $7.96 million. (Positive)
*SJVN:* Company secures Rs 10,000 crore construction finance facility from banks. (Positive)
*Torrent Power:* Company incorporates new subsidiary for generating electricity from renewable sources in Gujarat. (Positive)
*Aditya Birla Capital:* Sale of 50% stake in Aditya Birla Insurance Brokers to be completed by March 31, 2024 (Positive)
*ACC:* Company commissioned 1 MTPA cement manufacturing unit in Ametha, Madhya Pradesh (Positive)
*ISMT:* Long-term rating upgraded by ICRA to ICRA A+ (Stable). (Positive)
*HCC:* Long-term rating upgraded by ICRA to ICRA BB (Stable). (Positive)
*Spandana:* CRISIL has revised rating from ‘Stable’ to ‘Positive’ and reaffirmed rating (Positive)
*KPI Energy:* Company recommended 2:1 bonus issue for shareholders. (Positive)
*Royal Orchid Hotels:* Regenta and Royal Orchid Hotels to have 100 hotels by January, 2024 (Positive)
*Dhampur Bio:* Company has completed the sale of its share in the immovable
Property with consideration of Rs 20 crore (Positive)
*GPTINFRA:* Company declared L1 (First Lowest) in Order Valued at Rs. 267 Crore. (Positive)
*Karur Bank:* ICICI Prudential AMC and ICICI Prudential Life get RBI nod to acquire aggregate holding of up to 9.95% stake in Bank (Positive)
*City Union Bank:* ICICI Prudential AMC and ICICI Prudential Life get RBI nod to acquire aggregate holding of up to 9.95% stake in Bank (Positive)
*Godrej Properties:* Acquired a 4 acre land parcel in Bengaluru, having a developable potential of 0.7 million square feet saleable area through an outright purchase (Positive)
*Real Estate Stocks:* Mumbai's real estate soars to an 11-year high with over 1.27 lakh property registrations in 2023 (Positive)
*Aviation stocks:* ATF price cut to ₹1.01 lk/kl from ₹1.06 lk/kl in Delhi (Positive)
*Indostar Capital:* Sells a portion of its SME loan portfolio to Encore Asset Reconstruction Company aggregating to a principal outstanding of ₹292 crore. (Positive)
*Innova Captab:* Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, Invesco Mutual Fund buyers in the stock on listing day via bulk deals. (Positive)
*PVR Inox:* Nippon Life India Trustee has picked up 2 lakh equity shares, equivalent to 0.2% of paid-up equity (Positive)
*Larsen and Toubro:* Company wins civil works tender for Bengaluru suburban rail project. (Positive)
*Dr Reddy's:* Company acquires 6.46% stake in Edity Therapeutics for $2 million. (Neutral)
*Bank of Baroda:* Bank ups fixed deposits rates for various tenors by up to 125 bps. (Neutral)
*Nippon Life:* CFO Prateek Jain tenders resignation citing personal reasons. (Neutral)
*Mahindra & Mahindra:* Company gets Rs 4.12 crore tax penalty; company to challenge. (Neutral)
*Torrent Power:* India Ratings Assigns Company’s NCDs ‘IND AA+’/Stable; Affirms CPs at ‘IND A1+’ (Neutral)
*SBI Cards:* Shareholders have approved an appointment of Nitin Chugh as Nominee Director on the board of the company (Neutral)
*Bank of Baroda:* Raises Interest Rates on retail term deposits for various tenors by up to 125 bps (Neutral)
*Steel Companies:* April-November finished steel output at 89.7 million tonnes, up 14.3% year-on-year. (Neutral)
*PNB:* Bank raises one year MCLR to 8.70% from 8.65% effective from January 01 (Neutral)
*Container Corp:* Order received by the Company under the CGST Act, 2017, demanding tax and penalty of Rs 65.0 crore. (Negative)
*Macrotech:* Order received from Deputy Commissioner of State Tax, Mumbai, demanding tax and penalty of Rs 91.0 crore. (Negative)
*Vedanta:* Company has received two orders worth ₹48.82 crore, along with applicable interest and penalty of 10% of GST demand (Negative)
*Dalmia Bharat:* Dalmia Cement has received a GST demand order from the State Tax Officer, Lalgudi, Tamil Nadu, of ₹62.38 crore. (Negative)
*MOSL On Dalmia*
Buy Call, Target Rs 2,800
Top Pick For 2024
Ambitious Growth Plans, Execution In Focus
Optimistic About Co’s Long-Term Outlook
Co Plans To Increase Capacity To 110-130 Mtpa At A 14-17% CAGR By 2031
Strong B/S With Target To Maintain A Net Debt-To-EBITDA Ratio Of Less Than 2x
*ICICI Sec on Cello World*
Initiate Buy, Target Rs 920
Has Developed Strong Competitive Advantages
Generates EBITDA Margin/ ROCE Of >25%/30%
Expect Co To Benefit From Industry Growth Of 10%+ P.A
Expect Co To Benefit From Formalisation Of Sector, Unorganised Mkt Share Is Still 35%
Expect Co To Register 18.7% Revenue CAGR Over FY23-26E
Crude Oil Price Correction Offers Margin Tailwinds
Execution Miss, If Any, Is a Key Risk
*Nomura on Fortis*
Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 475
Expectation Of Sustained Improvement In Hosp EBITDA Margin Remains Intact
Increased ARPOB CAGR Assumption Over FY25-30F From 4% To 5.8%
Factoring In Expectation Of Sustained Improvement In Case Mix
Factoring In Expectation Of Improvement Payor Mix Along With Price Hikes
Newer Brownfield Capacity Is Expected To Come Up Over Next 4
Newer Brownfield Capacity Should Support The ARPOB Improvement
*Jefferies on Cement Sector*
Cement Px Decline In All Regions In Dec-23 In Range Of 1-2%
Q3FY24 Growth Pegged At 3% QoQ Which Is In-line With Initial Expectations
For Q3, Highest Growth In South, & Flat To 3% In Other Regions
Demand Trend Mixed In Dec After Sub-10% YoY Growth Seen In Combined Oct-Nov-23
Many Dealers Expect Px To Improve From 3rd Week Of Jan
Easing Energy Costs Is Positive For Sector
*Antique on QSR*
Expect A Gradual Recovery For The Pizza Segment
Expect Recover In Pizza Space Due To Elevated Levels Of Competitive Intensity
Should Aid Near-Term Recovery For Domino’s And Pizza Hut
Strong Performance In KFC Should Support Growth For Devyani & Sapphire
Westlife & RBA’s Performance Should Witness Steady Performance In Burgers
At Current Levels, Prefer Devyani Intl & Sapphire, As Risk-Reward Remains Favourable
Maintain SELL On Jubilant Food Due To Near-Term Headwinds In Pizza Segment
*MOSL top Ideas for 2024*
Among large-caps
Coal India, ITC, SBI, L&T, HCL Tech, Titan, Ultratech Cement & M&M
Among mid-caps
Ashok Leyland, Godrej Properties, Angel One, Metro Brand, Global Health, PNB Housing, Kirloskar Oil Engine, & Lemon Tree
Stock to watch
1) GMR INFRA has seen a Flag pattern breakout on the daily chart. The breakout was supported with strong volumes which might extend this rally ahead. Momentum indicator RSI is positive on the daily chart. Therefore, the stock looks good on dips to 79 and can test 90 support at 72.50. Positional view
2) KEYSTONE REALTORS is on the verge of a Rising wedge breakout on the daily charts. The stock is well trading above its short as well as long-term moving averages with rising volumes. Momentum indicator RSI is also positive on the daily chart. Therefore, the stock looks good in the range of 640 to 630 and can test 720 support is at 590. Positional view.
3) PATANJALI FOODS have seen multi year breakout on the daily chart. The stock is poised to break three-week consolidation. The momentum indicator RSI is positive on the monthly charts. Therefore, the stock looks good in the range of 1574 to 1540 and can test 1800 support at 1425. Positional view
4) HDFC LIFE INSURANCE has seen a pullback after an earlier consolidation breakout on the daily charts. The stock has taken a pause near its support trend line. The momentum indicator RSI is about to give a positive on the daily chart. Therefore, the stock looks good in the range of 646 to 640 and can test 710 support at 600. Positional view
5) CITY UNION BANK has seen a pullback after a consolidation breakout on the daily charts. The stock has taken a pause near its multiple support region. Momentum Indicator RSI is flat on the daily charts. Therefore, the stock looks good above 152 can test 167 support is at 139. Positional view.
For charts you can visit my X @RahulRanderia

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