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May 02, 2025
- Daily Morning Report Date: 2nd May 2025
- NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24334.20 FII: Rs. 50.57 cr DII: Rs. 1792.15 cr
- As discussed, the market moved as expected. In the last 15 minutes, bears tried to push Nifty down but failed to decisively break the 24255 support level.
- The index remained range-bound, with buying attempts facing selling pressure at higher levels, resulting in flat closes over the last two sessions—indicating market indecision.
- A small bearish star candlestick formed on the daily chart, with no clear pattern. The prevailing uptrend remains intact. We maintain our earlier view: a breakout above 24427 could lead to a move towards 24497–24577, and if sustained, further to 24657.
- On the downside, immediate support lies at 24255–24220 and 24173. A breakdown below these may drag Nifty to 24095, and if selling intensifies, possibly to 24014.
- Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
- SPOT: 55087.15 PCR: 0.90 Max CE OI: 55500 Max PE OI: 53000
- On 30th April 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55087.15, down 0.55% from the previous day. The index moved 754.55 points intraday, hitting a high of 55478.25 and a low of 54723.70.
- The previous day’s high of 55478.25 and low of 54723.70 may act as resistance and support levels, respectively, for today's session.
- Technical View on Daily Chart:
- Key levels on the Bank Nifty daily chart remain unchanged, with resistance at 55200 and support at 54200. A breakout above 55200 may lead the index to 55700, while a breach below 54200 could drag it down to 53700.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bank Nifty is at 67; below 30 indicates oversold, and above 70 is overbought.
- Bank Nifty Day SMA Analysis:
- Bank Nifty is trading above 7 out of 8 SMAs (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200-day) and below the 5-day SMA.
- No candlestick pattern was identified in Bank Nifty.
- Macros
- 1. Dollar index @ 100.067
- 2. Vix @ 24.70
- 3. Brent crude @ 60.91
- Note: The tariff war has started to show its effect in the US as well. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, with initial claims jumping by 18,000 for the week ended 26th April, according to the Labor Department.
- This points to a possible rise in layoffs due to tariffs, which weighed on the economy in Q1. The economy contracted last quarter for the first time in three years, hit by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to avoid duties from President Trump’s tariffs.
- US now wants to initiate tariff talks with China, as per state media. As mentioned earlier, China hasn’t shown urgency in resolving the issue. With the ball now in China’s court, it’s a wait-and-watch situation.
- US markets rose on the back of stronger-than-expected tech results. Gold corrected sharply, as previously advised—we recommended selling from $3500, and it touched $3209, a 10% drop in a month. We continue to recommend buying silver or silver ETFs (BeES), expecting it to rise to $43–45 over the next 1.5–2 years.
- Conclusion: Talks between China and the US may begin soon. In India, FIIs have shown renewed interest post valuation correction, with net long positions rising from 13% to 46%. Any dips or profit booking should be seen as a buying opportunity.
- Contributed by
- Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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- UBS On Bandhan Bank
- Maintain Neutral with target price of Rs 165
- Q4 PAT miss driven by weakness across core metrics
- Believe NIMs should continue to moderate as the bank remains cautious on MFI disbursements
- @beatthestreet10
- JPMorgan on Varun Beverages
- Maintain Overweight; Cut target price to Rs 625 from Rs 650
- Confident narrative on sustaining double digit volume growth with limited margin impact
- Q2 volume key catalyst ahead
- @beatthestreet10
- CLSA On Vedanta
- Maintain Outperform; Hike target price to Rs 535 from Rs 530
- Q4 in line with our estimates
- Expansion projects key to meet guidance; Q2 volume key catalyst ahead
- @beatthestreet10
- JPSL Q4 HIGHLIGHTS
- ADJ. EBITDA UP 16 % To 2482 Cr QOQ , DOWN 1 % YOY
- ADJ EBITDA/TN UP 4 % To 11651 QOQ, DOWN 7 % QOQ
- Production volume up 6% QoQ due to higher capacity utilization at 88% in FY25
- Sales volume up 12% QoQ on account of higher production & inventory liquidation
- Total operating cost increased by 14% due to 12% QoQ on sales volume
- Operating costs includes one-offs to the tune of INR 231 cr; excluding the same, increase in operating cost is 12% against 13% revenue increase .
- Net debt Down 12 % To Rs 11,957 Cr QOQ
- @beatthestreet10
- JSPL Q4 ; FY26 GUIDANCE
- Steel Production Guidance Of 9-10 MT ( Growth Of 11-23 % V 3 % Growth In FY25 )
- Sales Guidance Of 8.5-9 MT ( Growth Of 7-13 % V 4 % Growth In FY25 )
- Incremental steel production from
- 0.2 – 0.3 MT From existing operations And 0.7 – 1.6 MT From new expansion
- @beatthestreet10
- MS ON FEDERAL BANK
- (CMP: ₹196.68)
- MAINTAIN UNDERWEIGHT
- TARGET PRICE: ₹160
- PPoP Will Be Under Pressure As Int Rate Cycle Turns & Opex Accelerates
- It Will Be Tough To Sustain FY25 RoA & RoE Of 1.2% & 13%
- Reduce Earnings Estimates By 4% For FY26 & 2% For FY27
- Near-term Outlook Remains Tough, Competitive Intensity Is High
- @beatthestreet10
- Q4 EARNINGS
- GOOD-Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, MOIL, MAS Financial
- INLINE/MIXED-Indus Tower, JSW Infra, Godrej Agrovet, Adani Power, JSPL, Inline
- WEAK-Eternal (Zomato), Bandhan Bank, Phoenix Mills
- @beatthestreet10
- JEFFERIES ON ETERNAL (ZOMATO)
- (CMP: 232.52)
- MAINTAIN HOLD
- TARGET PRICE: ₹250
- (PREVIOUS TARGET : 255)
- Good Q4 But Cautious Outlook On Q/C Competition
- Commentary Is Cautious Than What Headline Numbers Reflected
- Cut Adj EBITDA Estimates By 5-15% & Stay On The Sidelines
- Mgmt Expects Competition To increase From Players Like Amazon, Flipkart
- In Food Delivery, Supply-demand Mismatch Of Delivery Riders To Ease With Time
- @beatthestreet10
- MORGAN STANLEY ON NMDC
- Price Hike Was Surprising Move Based On Expectations Of Some Moderation In Prices
- Price Hike Announcement Is Opportunistic On Back Of Increased Domestic Steel Prices Recently
- Don't Rule Out Some Moderation As We Get Into The Seasonally Weak Monsoon Season Next Month
- @beatthestreet10
- NOMURA ON ETERNAL (ZOMATO)
- (CMP: 232.52)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- TARGET PRICE: 280
- (PREVIOUS TARGET : 290)
- Well Positioned To Weather The Competition
- Cut Target To Factor In Lower Near-term Profitability In Q/C
- Company Is Not Burning Cash At The EBITDA Level
- Delisting Of 19k Restaurants From Platform & Lower Days In In Q4 Impacted GOV
- @beatthestreet10
- NOMURA ON FIVE STAR
- Maintains 'Buy'; Cut Target Price To ₹780 From ₹800
- Q4 Saw Moderate Growth, Elevated Credit Costs
- Reported Margins Improved (QoQ)
- Asset Quality Deteriorated, Disbursement Growth Picked Up In Q4
- @beatthestreet10
- JEFFERIES ON SONA BLW
- (CMP: 481.15)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- TARGET PRICE: 565
- (PREVIOUS TARGET : ₹700)
- Tariff-driven Biz Pressures In North America & Volume Slowdown Key Concerns
- India-US Trade Deal Could Enhance Competitiveness Of Indian Exporters
- Cut FY26-27 EPS Estimates By 25%
- Have Strong Long-term Growth Potential With Its Expanding Portfolio
- @beatthestreet10
- NOMURA ON SONA BLW
- Maintains 'Buy'; Cuts Target Price To ₹552
- Q4 Earnings Were In Line, Adjusted For PLI
- See Near-Term Weakness But Strong New Order Wins
- Risks From Tariff Uncertainty In US Makes Near-Term Revenues Less Predictable
- @beatthestreet10
- JPMORGAN ON FEDERAL BANK
- Maintains 'Overweight' With Target Price Of ₹215
- Pre-Provision Operating Profit Miss To Lead To Weakness
- See Core Profits Staying Rangebound, Leading To A Partial Reversal From YTD Lows
- Operating Costs Will Remain High As Bank Is In A Phase Of Expanding Branch Network
- @beatthestreet10
- UBS ON FEDERAL BANK
- Maintains 'Buy' With Target Price Of ₹235
- Q4 Profit Beat Supported By One Off Corporate Recoveries
- Deposit Growth Outpaced Loan Growth (QoQ)
- Management Reiterated Focus On Mid Yield Loan Segments & Current Account Deposits
- @beatthestreet10
- CITI ON INDUS TOWERS
- Maintains 'Buy'; Hikes Target Price To ₹485 From ₹470
- Q4 Largely In-Line; Delay In Dividend Payout Introduces Uncertainty
- FCF Generation Strong, Though Payout Delayed
- All Past Undisputed Overdues From Vodaldea Have Now Been Cleared
- @beatthestreet10
- BOFA ON STAR HEALTH
- Maintains 'Buy'; Cuts Target Price To ₹460 From ₹500
- Maintains 'Buy' On Superior Pricing Arrangement With Hospitals
- Q4 Earnings Continue To Disappoint
- Loss Ratio Challenged By Claim Severity, Frequency
- Product Innovation With Under-Penetration Supporting Growth Outlook
- @beatthestreet10
- JPMORGAN ON VISHAL MEGA MART
- Maintains 'Overweight', Hikes Target Price To ₹133 From ₹125
- Good Value Retail Play Offering Strong Growth
- Multiple Levers For Healthy Same Store Sales Growth
- Long Runway For Store Expansion
- Scaling Up Hyperlocal Play
- Modest Operating Margin Expansion Ahead
- @beatthestreet10
- COAL INDIA , NLC INDIA ; April 2025 Coal Production Up 3.63% At 81.57 mt Vs 78.71 mt (YoY)
- April 2025 Coal Dispatch Up 1.80% At 86.64 mt Vs 85.11 mt (YoY)
- @beatthestreet10
- JEFFERIES ON VISHAL MEGA MART
- Maintains 'Buy', Hikes Target Price To ₹142 From ₹125
- Strong End To Year Raises Optimism For FY26
- Reported An Acceleration In Same Store Sales Growth In Q4, Which Is A Key Positive
- @beatthestreet10
- MACQUARIE ON L&T
- Maintains 'Outperform' With Target Price Of ₹4,210
- Backlog Provides Healthy Earnings & Return On Equity Visibility Over Next 2 Years
- Diversified Offerings Lend Resilience To Order Inflows, Reflected In Variety Of FY25 Order Wins
- FY26 Order Inflows & Margin Guidance Key Focus
- @beatthestreet10
- JP Morgan on Eternal
- Maintains OW but cuts TP to Rs. 290 from 340
- Expects QC losses to extend further and a tad longer
- Expecting an sharp ramp up in profits in FY26 overall
- Expects MTU growth at 17%
- @beatthestreet10
- CLSA on Eternal
- Maintains outperform with TP of Rs. 295
- Cuts EBITDA and PAT estimates by 25% and 36%
- Believes hitting all the right milestones
- @beatthestreet10
- CITI ON ONGC
- Earnings Highly Sensitive To Oil Prices
- $5/BBL Oil Price Decline Could Impact EPS By 17%
- Risk-Reward Unfavourable On Delay In KG Gas Production Ramping Up
- Downgrades To 'Sell' From 'Neutral'; Cuts Target Price To ₹215 From ₹250
- @beatthestreet10
- HERO APRIL SALES ; TOTAL SALES DOWN 43 % TO 3.05 LKH UNITS YOY, V EST 4.47 LKH
- @beatthestreet10
- JEFFERIES ON IOCL
- Maintains 'Buy', Hikes Target Price To ₹160 From ₹150
- EBITDA Beat Driven By Refining; GRM At Large Premium To Benchmark On Inventory Gains
- With Crude Down $10 In April, Inventory Losses Are Likely In Q1
- Govt Didn't Compensate LPG Losses In FY25
- @beatthestreet10
- HERO APRIL SALES ; Hero MotoCorp paused production at key plants from April 17–19 for supply chain alignment and maintenance, with normalization expected in May.
- It logged 5.05 lakh VAHAN ICE two-wheeler registrations in April, reflecting strong demand and rising retail market share.
- @beatthestreet10
- TELCOS EQUITY CONVERSION
- Sources says Equity Conversion In Telcos Only As Per Cabinet Approved Relief Package Of 2021 - CNBCTV 18
- Under Relief Package Of 2021, Only Dues Of Spectrum Acquired Before 2021 Will Be Considered
- Dues For Spectrum Acquired In 2021 Or After, Will Not Be Considered For Equity Conversion
- Telcos Are Free To Apply Under 2021 Relief Package For Dues-To-Equity Conversion
- AGR & Spectrum Dues Are Both Eligible For Conversion Under Govt Scheme
- Spectrum Dues-To-Eq Conversion Is Not Automatic, Will Be Subject To Evaluation By DoT
- Alert - Govt Converted Voda-Idea's Spectrum Dues Into Equity, Govt Holding Now At 48.99%
- Alert - Bharti Airtel Reportedly Applied To DoT For Converting AGR, Spectrum Dues Into Equity
- @beatthestreet10
- HERO MOTO APRIL SALES ; DOMESTIC SALES DOWN 44 % TO 2.88 LKH UNITS YOY
- EXPORT SALES DOWN 17 % TO 16.8 K UNITS YOY
- MOTORCYCLE SALES DOWN 42 % TO 2.86 LKH UNITS YOY
- SCOOTERS SALES DOWN 48 % TO 19.3 K
- VIDA dispatched 7,116 V2 scooters in April and logged 6,123 VAHAN EV registrations, marking strong growth and a rising presence in the electric two-wheeler market.
- @beatthestreet10
- ELARA CAPITAL ON ZOMATO
- Maintain Buy with an unchanged SoTP-target price of 300
- Expect Blinkit to maintain industry-leading show on user growth and GOV
- Expect ETERNAL to maintain its market leadership in both the segments
- @beatthestreet10
- BOFA ON BANDHAN BANK
- Maintains 'Buy' With Target Price Of ₹195
- Gradual MFI Normalisation Continues In Q4; Growth To Rebound In FY26
- Loan Growth Runrate Improves, Better Asset Quality Trends; NIM Pressure Continues
- @beatthestreet10
- BOFA ON VARUN BEVERAGES
- Maintains 'Buy'; Cuts Target Price To ₹600 From ₹630
- India Volumes Surprise Positively; Overall Q1 Largely In-Line
- Management Confident On Sustaining Double-Digit Volume Growth With Stable Margins
- @beatthestreet10