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Get the latest Indian stock / share market highlights, BSE/NSE stock news, business research reports & details - updated daily by Money Times.

July 24, 2023

  • Indian Railways plans to float tender worth Rs 25,000 crore to procure 60,000 wagons in July-Sept
  • Positive for shares like TWL, RK forging, RVNL, RItes, IRCON, Texmaco, Jupiter, Railtel etc.
  • As part of its plan to increase the share of Indian Railways' (IR) freight traffic, the Ministry of Railways is planning to procure another 60,000 wagons at a cost of around Rs 25,000 crore.
  • Sources close to the development said that the ministry will in July-September float tenders for the procurement of the wagons, of which 10,000 may be aluminium.
  • "The ministry is finalising a tender to procure another 50,000 wagons and is also looking to float a separate tender to procure 10,000 aluminium wagons," a senior Railway Ministry official said.
  • He added that the new tenders are part of Indian Railways' long-term plan to increase the share of freight traffic carried by rail from the current share of 27 percent to 45 percent by 2030.
  • "Around 20,000 rakes (a rake refers to coupled coaches of a train but excluding the locomotive) from the second round of tenders will be procured by 2025, and the remaining will be delivered in between 2026 and 2028," the official said.
  • Emails sent to the ministry on the wagon purchase plan were not answered.
  • Another railway ministry official said that the quantum of aluminium wagons to be procured as part of the tenders is being discussed at the moment.
  • "Indian Railways is looking at launching a premium cargo service using aluminium rakes, which will not only be faster than conventional rakes but will also help manufacturers toward their environmental, social and governance (ESG) norms," the second official said, referring to the light-weight nature of the metal that will translate into lower energy consumption.
  • He added that customers willing to pay a premium for using aluminium goods trains will get ESG certificates from Indian Railways as these wagons save 14,500 tonnes of CO2 emissions, consume less energy and are corrosion-resistant.
  • "They are 100 percent recyclable and even after 30 years, they will be as good as new,” the second official added.
  • The new tenders are a part of the government's plans to deploy more than 1 lakh wagons in the coming years to increase freight loading to 2,000 million tonnes (MT) by 2024-25.
  • The railways loaded 1,512 MT of freight in 2022-23.
  • "Freight volumes increased 94 MT incrementally in 2022-23, and this year the expectation is that the volumes will rise by another 200-250 MT as wagons that were ordered last year start getting delivered," the first official said.
  • The proposed tender for wagons is on top of the railways' June 2022 contracts worth Rs 23,500 crore for the supply of 60,000 wagons placed on Titagarh Wagons, Texmaco Rail & Engineering, Hindustan Engineering Industries, Commercial Engineer & Body Builders Co and Oriental Foundry.
  • Last month, Jupiter Wagons' managing director Vivek Lohia told Moneycontrol that they expect Indian Railways to come out with tenders for 50,000 to 80,000 new wagons in 2023-24.
  • Lohia added that his company plans to bid for these tenders and is eyeing new orders for a minimum of 20,000-odd wagons from the railways in the fiscal.
  • Indian Railways currently has a stock of about 320,000 wagons and will use the new wagons to supplement this capacity as part of its larger plan to cater to 45 percent of India's freight traffic by 2030.
  • Last year, the railways flagged off its first indigenously manufactured aluminium goods train rake in October. Made in collaboration with the wagons division of the Kolkata-based Besco Limited and aluminium major Hindalco, it also has a lower carbon footprint for every 100 kg of weight reduction in wagons, the railways had said.
  • The lifetime carbon saving was eight to 10 tonnes and this meant saving more than 14,500 tonnes of carbon for a single rake.
  • Indian Railways had added that aluminium rakes have an 80 percent resale value and a 10-year longer lifespan compared to normal ones but the manufacturing cost was 35 percent higher as the superstructure was all-aluminium.
  • *India Daybook – Stocks in News*
  • *PNB Gilts:* Net profit at Rs 58.0 cr vs loss of Rs 88.9 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 373.9 cr vs Rs 281.4 cr (YoY) (Positive)
  • *Credit Access:* Net profit at Rs 348.0 cr vs Rs 138.0 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 1105.0 cr vs Rs 736.0 cr (YoY) (Positive)
  • *CMS Info:* Net profit at Rs 84.0 cr vs Rs 69.0 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 511.0 cr vs Rs 453.0 cr (YoY) (Positive)
  • *Titagarh Rail:* Net profit at Rs 61.7 cr vs loss Rs 0.6 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 910.0 cr vs Rs 431.0 cr (YoY) (Positive)
  • *Dodla Dairy:* Net profit at Rs 35.0 cr vs Rs 24.9 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 823.0 cr vs Rs 720.0 cr (YoY) (Positive)
  • *Aarti Drugs:* Revenue seen at Rs 661.11 crore vs. Rs 621.96 crore. Net profit seen at Rs 47.97 crore vs. Rs 34.78 crore. (Positive)
  • *Fortis:* CRISIL has upgraded long term rating of the Company (Positive)
  • *PFC:* Company has signed MoU worth of Rs 2.37 lakh crore for clean energy (Positive)
  • *SJVN:* The company signed a MoU with REC for financing projects and its subsidiaries and joint ventures to the extent of Rs 50,000 crore (Positive)
  • *NHPC:* The government of Arunachal Pradesh has allotted the Subansiri Upper HE Project of 2000 MW and the Kamala HE Project of 1800 MW to the company (Positive)
  • *LUPIN:* Received tentative approval from USFDA for Dolutegravir Lamivudine and Tenofovir Alafenamide Tablets (Positive)
  • *Railtel:* Quant Mutual Fund bought 88.85 lakh shares of company (Positive)
  • *Adani Ent:* Bain Capital to acquire 90% stake in Adani Capital and Adani Housing (Positive)
  • *Bandhan Bank:* BNP PARIBAS Arbitrage Fund bought 88.85 lakh shares of company (Neutral)
  • *Aarti Drugs:* Net profit at Rs 48.0 cr vs Rs 34.8 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 661.0 cr vs Rs 622.0 cr (YoY) (Neutral)
  • *Cyient DLM:* Net profit at Rs 5.4 cr vs Rs 6.3 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 217.0 cr vs Rs 170.0 cr (YoY) (Neutral)
  • *PayTM:* Net loss at Rs 357.0 cr vs Rs 644.0 cr, Revenue seen at Rs 2342.0 cr vs Rs 1680.0 cr (YoY) (Neutral)
  • *Kotak Bank:* Net Profit at Rs 3452.0 cr versus poll of 3270.2 cr, NII at Rs 6234.0 cr versus poll of Rs 6206.5 cr (Neutral)
  • *RBL Bank:* Net Profit at Rs 288.0 cr versus poll of Rs 252.0 cr, NII at Rs 2679.0 cr versus Rs 2089.0 cr YoY. (Neutral)
  • *Yes Bank:* Net Profit at Rs 342.0 cr versus poll of Rs 314.0 cr, Interest Earned at Rs 6443.0 cr versus Rs 5135.0 cr YoY. (Neutral)
  • *ICICI Bank:* Net Profit at Rs 9648.0 cr versus poll of 9217.0 cr, NII at Rs 18227.0 cr versus poll of 17932.0 cr. (Neutral)
  • *Reliance:* Net profit reported at Rs. 16010 crore versus poll of Rs. 16292 crore. Revenue reported at Rs. 210000 crore versus poll of Rs. 208879 crore. (Neutral)
  • *IGL:* Net profit reported at Rs. 439 crore versus poll of Rs. 463 crore. EBITDA at Rs. 642 crore versus Rs. 466 crore YoY. (Neutral)
  • *AU Bank:* Net Profit at Rs 387.0 cr versus poll of 268.0 cr, NII at Rs 1,246.2 cr vs of Rs 1,258.9 cr (Neutral)
  • *Coffee Day Enterprise:* CLIX CAPITAL sold 16.62 lakh shares of company. (Neutral)
  • *Aurobindo Pharma:* The U.S. FDA has issued a Form 483 with three observations after inspecting the company's facility (Neutral)
  • *DLF:* Company's consolidated net profit rose 12% to Rs 527 crore. Revenue from operations fell by a marginal 1% to Rs 1,423 crore YoY. (Neutral)
  • *Thirumalai Chem:* Net Profit at Rs 10.6 cr versus Rs 60.0 cr, Revenues at Rs 522.0 cr versus Rs 620.0 cr YoY. (Negative)
  • *Tejas Network:* Net loss at Rs 14.7 cr versus Rs 6.7 cr, Revenues at Rs 167.0 cr versus Rs 126.0 cr YoY. (Negative)
  • *Biocon:* The FDA conducted two GMP inspections at Biocon’s insulins manufacturing facility and issued a Form 483 with six observations (Negative)
  • *Vedanta:* Revenue for the quarter slide 12.8 percent to Rs 33,342 crore. The EBITDA also fell 40 percent for the quarter (Negative)
  • *Citi on IGL*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 560
  • Q1 EBITDA Was Largely In-line With Soft Volumes Offset By Higher Margin
  • Net Income At Rs 440 Cr Was Largely In Line
  • Q1 Standalone EPS Was Rs 6.3/Sh, Cons EPS Was 19% Higher At Rs 7.5/Sh
  • *Jefferies on IGL*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 565
  • EBITDA Was Ahead Led By Better Margin While Vol Fell QoQ
  • Unit EBITDA Margin Was Ahead Of Est On Lower-than-expected Gas Costs
  • Near-term Earnings Are Supported By Expanding Margin On Feedstock Cost Relief
  • EV Adoption In NCR Poses Medium-term Risk To 30% Of IGL's Overall Vol
  • *CLSA on IGL*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 600
  • EBITDA was Up 38% QoQ & In-line While Other Income Drove A 4% Miss In PAT
  • Volume Growth At Multi-year Low Led By Only 1% YoY Growth In CNG
  • Return Of Pricing Power Due To Stable Input Costs Along With Robust Vol Growth
  • Pricing Should Enable 21% EPS CAGR Over FY23-25
  • *Citi on Paytm*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 1,200
  • Net Payment Margin On Upswing & Ahead Of Est Aided By Lower Interchange Expenses
  • Margin Upswing Resulted In A Continued Expansion In Adj EBITDA
  • EBITDA Expansion Partly Offset By Higher Fixed Cost Overheads
  • *Macquarie on Paytm*
  • Neutral, TP Rs 800
  • Decent qtr- some hits some misses
  • EBITDA miss due to higher opex
  • Distribution take rates decline, vol to drive profitability
  • Reducing concentration risk in lending biz +ve
  • Trades @4.6xFY25Esales
  • *GS on Paytm*
  • Buy, TP raised to Rs 1200
  • 1Q had 3 incremental +ves
  • 1)Further improvement in ECL & bounce rates in its BNPL loan portfolio
  • 2)New guidance of being FCF +ve before yr end
  • 3)High-margin payments device traction, & payments net margins, continue to surprise on upside
  • *CLSA on Paytm*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 1,050
  • Healthy Growth In Business Metrics But Fixed Costs Rising
  • Improvement In Payment Net Take Rate A Surprise
  • Scaling Up In Lending, But Ticket Sizes Rising
  • Lift EBITDA Estimates By 9%-12%, Stock Trades At 15x-16x EV/EBITDA
  • Expect Co To Generate Free Cash Flow Over the Next Few Quarters
  • *Citi on Vedanta*
  • Downgrade To Sell
  • Target Cut To Rs 225
  • Q1 EBITDA Fell 30% QoQ On Lower Commodity Prices/Volumes
  • Dividend Upstreaming In Excess Of Inflows From Hind Zinc, Brand Fee To VRL
  • Sale Of The Proposed Semiconductors & Displays Biz From VRL Hurting Leverage
  • Net Debt Excl HZL Is Up By $2 Bn From Mar To Jun 2023 Largely On Dividend Outgo
  • *MS on Kotak Mah Bank*
  • Equal-weight Rating
  • Target Rs 2,250
  • Continues To Deliver On Asset Quality, Growth, And Profitability
  • Deposit Growth Was A Key Result That Accelerated Further In Quarter
  • Potential For Operating Leverage Is Strong
  • Capital Market Trends Picked Up, Expect Sustained Strong Earnings
  • *Bernstein on Kotak Mah Bank*
  • Market Perform
  • Target Rs 2,100
  • Q1 NIM Resilience Drives Yet Another Strong Quarter
  • EPS Growth At 67% YoY Led By Healthy NIM, In-line Wit Est
  • Expectation Of A Marginal QoQ Decline In NIM For The Large PVBs
  • Healthy NIM Was Despite A Surge In Term Deposits
  • *JPMorgan on Kotak Mah Bank*
  • Neutral Rating
  • Target Rs 2,070
  • Net Income Came 3% Above Estimates On Higher Non Interest
  • Core Operating Profit Was In-line With Expectations, NIMs Down 18 bps QoQ
  • Key Highlight Was An Improvement In Deposits Growth Driven By Term Deposits
  • Loan Growth Was Slower At 17% YoY Dragged By Corporate Book
  • Valns Have De-rated & Catch-up To Historical Prem Will Need To Sustain Delivery
  • Any M&A Action Could Be Taken By Market Positively Near Term
  • *Jefferies on Kotak Mah Bank*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 2,400
  • Standalone Profit Was Up A Strong 67% YoY & Ahead Of Est
  • Strong NII Growth Of 33%, Higher Treasury & Dividend From Subs Boosted Profit
  • Loan Growth Has Slowed, High-yielding Unsecured Loans Rose Fast & Aided Margin
  • Deposit Growth Improved To 22% YoY, But Led By Term Deposits
  • *GS on Kotak Bank*
  • Buy, TP Rs 2624
  • Reported yet another strong qtr
  • PAT growing 67% YoY & core PPOP growing 28% YoY In 2023, Kotak Bank saw earnings upgrade by street & expect same to likely repeat in FY24, driven by excellent NIM & opex management
  • *CLSA on ICICI Bank*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 1,225
  • Highest Earnings Certainty Over Next 3 yrs, Remains Top Pick
  • Growth Strong And Commentary Confident
  • NIM Moderation In-line, Deposit Accretion Has Picked Up Pace
  • Core PPoP Up 37% YoY & Bank Will Invest In Growth In FY24
  • Earnings Multiple Of 15.5/13.5x FY24/25 Is Still Reasonable
  • *MS on ICICI Bank*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 1,350
  • Deposit Growth Accelerated To 18% YoY/5% QoQ In Q1
  • Deposit Growth Helped Sustain Strong Domestic Loan Growth
  • Margin Was Adjusted For Seasonality, Asset Quality Remains Strong
  • *Bernstein on ICICI Bank*
  • Market Perform
  • Target Rs 1,050
  • Q1FY24 Results Were Very Healthy With a 39% YoY Jump In EPS
  • Bank Maintained RoA & RoE With NIM Seeing a Marginal Decline
  • Deposit Growth Picked Up To Narrow The Gap With HDFC Bank
  • *JPMorgan on ICICI Bank*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Rs 1,150
  • PAT Was 7% Ahead Of Estimates Driven By Lower Provisions
  • Core PPoP In-line With Est Driven By Loan Growth & Higher NIMs
  • Core NIMs Declined 15 bps QoQ On Deposit Repricing, In-line With Expectations
  • RoAs Above Cycle Levels As Lower NIMs & Higher Opex Offset By Lower Credit Costs
  • *Jefferies on ICICI Bank*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 1,240
  • Q1 Profit Was Ahead Of Estimate With Tad Better NIMs
  • Credit Cost Was Low, Only For Stress Loans Vs Past Few Qtrs
  • With Lower Recoveries/Upgrades, Even With Stable Slippages, This Trend May Stay
  • Pickup In Deposit Growth To 18% Should Aid Loan Growth
  • See 16% CAGR In Profit Over FY23-26
  • *Citi on RIL*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 2,750
  • Q1FY24 Cons EBITDA Was Down 1% QoQ, Broadly In-line
  • O2C EBITDA Was Slightly Below, Oil & Gas Was Ahead & Jio & Retail Were In-line
  • Key Segments Have A Soft Near-term Outlook, Could Preclude Earnings Upgrades
  • *JPMorgan on RIL*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 3,040
  • Steady Operating Earnings, Downgrade Cycle Likely Behind Us
  • Raise FY24-25 EBITDA Est By 1.5%-4.1% & Cut EPS By 5.4%-2.9% On Higher Tax Rate
  • Believe Stock Offers Multiple Potential Catalysts Over Next 18 Months
  • Upcoming AGM Could Likely Give More Visibility
  • *Macquarie on RIL*
  • Underperform Rating
  • Target Rs 2,100
  • Reported A Subdued Q1 With Lower Margin In Cyclical O2C Biz A Drag
  • Positive E&P, In-line Jio, Retail & O2C, Negative Capex
  • Consensus Has Cut FY24-25 EPS Est By 10-7% Over Past 3 Months
  • FY24-25 EPS Est Remains 14-18% Below Consensus
  • *MS on RIL*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Cut To Rs 3,000 From 3,210
  • Moving Into A Phase Where Monetisation & Invest Cycles Run Concurrently Till 2027
  • Co Is Evident With Its Guidance To Keep Net Debt Below EBITDA
  • Multi-decade Profile Shift Offers Under-appreciated Opportunities
  • *Jefferies on RIL*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 2,935
  • EBITDA Came In-line With Estimates With All Segments In Line
  • Retail's Growth Disappointed While Margin Improved
  • Jio Saw Faster Subs Adds, Tariff Hikes Delay Lead To 6%/4% Cut To FY24/25 EBITDA Est
  • O2C Is Seeing Margin Pressures In July On Narrowed Discount On Russian Oil
  • Risk-reward Is Balanced After Recent Rally
  • *JPMorgan on UltraTech*
  • Neutral Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 7,355
  • Strong Volume Growth, But Lower Margin
  • In-line Earnings, Expansion On Track
  • Strong Execution, Mkt Presence & Capacity Expansions Are A Positive
  • Valuations Are Rich & Keep Us On Sidelines
  • *JPMorgan on JSW Steel*
  • Neutral Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 730
  • Higher Margin Drive Earnings Beat, Domestic Steel Prices Have Likely Bottomed
  • Like Attractive Vol Growth Pipeline, But Expensive Valns Keeps Us On Sidelines
  • Ongoing Projects On Track, To Reach 37 mtpa By FY25, Pathway To 50 mtpa By FY31
  • *MS on JSW Steel*
  • Underweight Rating
  • Target Rs 580
  • Q1 Ahead Of Est With Good Execution On Realisations, Partially Offset By Higher Opex
  • Subsidiaries' Performance Was Better-than-expected
  • Management Guided For A Broadly Stable Margin Next Quarter
  • *MS on AU SFB*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Rs 925
  • Margin Moderation Was Higher Than Expected
  • Bank Guided For Further Downside, Reduce Margin To Factor This
  • Loan Growth Was Strong
  • Deposit Growth/Asset Quality Was Muted Partly Owing To Seasonality
  • Expect Margin To Pick Up In H2FY24 & Strong Loan Growth To Drive Compounding
  • *Nomura on Ashok Leyland*
  • Buy Rating
  • Target Rs 213
  • Margin Beat Consensus, Can Rise More
  • Capex Cycle To Drive CV Demand, Benign Competition A Key Lever For Expansion
  • Co Expects 8-10% M&HCV Industry Growth In FY24
  • Co Remains Focussed On Sustaining Double-digit Margin
  • *JPMorgan on Persistent Sys*
  • Underweight Rating
  • Target Rs 4,100
  • Missed Est For 1st Time In 3 Yrs With CC Growth Coming In At Lower End Of Target
  • Growth Was Led By Top Account While the Rest Of the Portfolio Was Soft At 2%
  • Key Highlight Was QoQ Growth Target Being Revised Down To 2-4% From 3-5% Earlier
  • Stock Trading At 29x 1-year Forward P
  • *JPMorgan on HDFC Life*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Raised To Rs 780 From 610
  • Market Looks Likely To Initially Take Q1 NBV Margin As A Concern
  • Margin Decline Was Largely Due To Higher ULIP Shr In Pdt Mix & -Ve Op Leverage
  • Think Margin In FY24 Will Likely Stay Flat Supported By Rising Retail Protection Mix
  • Q1 Looks Solid With Earnings Beat, Increased Alignment With HDFC Bank
  • *MS on HDFC Life*
  • Overweight Rating
  • Target Rs 800
  • VNB 2% Ahead Of Estimate, Strong Retail Protection APE Growth
  • Overall APE Growth Was 13% YoY & Individual APE Growth Was 12% YoY
  • Q1FY24 Earnings Included Exide Life In Base
  • *CLSA on HDFC Life*
  • Underperform Rating
  • Target Rs 680
  • Healthy Growth In APE Across Most Products And Channels
  • VNB Margin Of 26.2% & Is Well Poised To Deliver 27.5% In FY24
  • Management reiterated guidance of increasing wallet share in HDFC Bank
  • Recent Strong Move In Stock Prices Leaves Limited Room For Upside
  • *Global-Market Insights*
  • -US markets closed mixed on Friday, as investors continue to digest the latest earnings reports
  • -Dow Jones closed marginally higher, marking the 10th straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since 2017
  • -On the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 gained 2% and 0.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.5%.
  • -A number of market-moving events are in store for investors this week
  • -Fed's interest rate decision, Q2 GDP growth, PCE price index, and earnings results for several big corporations.
  • -Investors will closely watch results from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms
  • -Investors will closely follow monetary policy updates from the ECB and the BoJ as well as inflation rates for Germany, France, Spain, and Australia
  • *Week Ahead*
  • Monday:
  • Earnings from Ryanair and Dominos Pizza.
  • Tuesday:
  • Earnings from GM, 3M, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
  • Wednesday:
  • Fed's interest rate decision
  • Building permits and new home sales for June
  • Earnings from AT&T, Boeing, Meta Platforms
  • Thursday:
  • Q2 GDP (first estimate) and pending home sales.
  • Earnings from Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Honeywell, Royal Caribbean
  • Friday:
  • PCE index for June
  • Consumer sentiment for July.
  • Earnings from P&G, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil
  • *Market kya lagta hain @ 7.30am Monday, July 24th 2023*
  • # *GIFT Nifty (-49, 19718)*
  • Before we start, a recap of last week’s trading:
  • In last week’s trade, Nifty bulls were in a joyful and triumphant mood as optimism was flying high like a kite, and the panic buying led Nifty to record high at 19991.85 mark. But bears stepped-in in Friday’s trade and crushed Nifty's 20,000-mark dream.
  • The bears attack was on backdrop of:
  • 1) Dismal June quarter results from Infosys and Hindustan Unilever.
  • 2) In Friday’s trade, FIIs were net sellers of shares worth Rs. 1999 crores .
  • 3) Blame it also on the overbought technical conditions as greed was running quite high.
  • Meanwhile, RIL’s GDRs plunged 6% in London trading post its Q1 results
  • Which trickled in post Friday’s market hours. RIL’s profit slumped 11% YoY to Rs 16,011 crore, as the results missed street estimates.
  • Now, before we get into detail, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:
  • # Nifty (19745): Buy only dips between 19550-19575 zone. Stop at 19291. Targets 19851/20000. Aggressive targets at 202500.
  • # Bank Nifty (46075): Buy only dips between 45500-45750 zone. Stop at 45105. Targets 46301/46550. Aggressive targets at 46750-47000 zone.
  • # Technically speaking, the benchmark Nifty will struggle to make significant headway amidst overbought conditions.
  • • Hurdles for Nifty is now at 20000 mark on closing basis.
  • • Major resistance for Bank Nifty are at 46500 mark.
  • • Nifty’s supports are placed at 19561.
  • • Bank Nifty’s crucial support are placed at 45600 mark.
  • # The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 19100-19900 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 19900 followed by 19800 strike prices. So, the 19900 mark will be Nifty’s crucial resistance zone. Maximum Put open interest stands at 19000 levels followed by 19800 levels. Call writing was seen at 19700 and then at 19800 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 19100 and then at 19200 strike prices.
  • The Key catalysts this week:
  • 1) Fed’s monetary policy announcement to be wired on Wednesday.
  • 2) Q1 earnings:
  • Monday: CANBK, HDFCAMC, IDBI, PNBHOUSING, TATASTEEL, TVSMOTOR.
  • Tuesday: ASIANPAINT, BAJAJ AUTO, DELTACORP, DIXON, JUBLFOOD, L&T, SBILIFE, TATAMOTORS.
  • News Headline from Leading Financial News Papers,
  • Monday, 24 July, 2023
  • • Apollo set to expand its transplant programme
  • • Phenomenal interest in India’s semiconductor industry, says Piyush Goyal
  • • United Spirits brands to cost more in Karnataka
  • • Bain Capital to acquire 90% stake in Adani Capital, Adani Housing
  • • Electronics exports grew 56% in Q1, at 4th in pecking order
  • •Vodafone Idea fails to renew bank guarantees amid financial constraints, seeks time
  • • Toyota Kirloskar expects utilisation at its local plants to peak by end of 2024
  • • Hindustan Zinc to have 30% value-added products in its portfolio by FY25-end, says CEO
  • •Demand for bigger cars accelerates sales of wider tyres
  • • Startups to get airfare support for export promotion
  • • Banking, oil & gas stocks top FPI picks in first half of July
  • • 'Coffee Day Global now in bankruptcy process
  • • Before 20,000 a retreat in store for Nifty: Analysts
  • • Great market returns may come, but you need an expectation reset.
  • • AC trucks mean a boon for drivers and long-term gain for operators
  • • India seeks to ensure FTA sops aren't used for dumping steel
  • • Hindustan Unilever expects its volumes to recover gradually
  • • Go First looks at external funding for contingency plan
  • • Byju’s, lenders agree to alter terms of $1.2 billion loan
  • • Fate of Tata's UK steel business hinges on government support
  • • FPIs stay invested in Indian equities; put in Rs 43,800 cr this month
  • • Five of top-10 most valued firms add Rs 4.23 lakh crore in mcap
  • • Five IPOs to be launched, 3 listings scheduled
  • • HDFC Bank expects 17-18% credit growth this year
  • • Gold ETFs snap three-quarters of outflow; attract Rs 298 cr in Q1
  • • Oil rally takes a breather ahead of Fed, ECB rate hikes
  • • No major improvement likely in upgrade-downgrade ratio this earnings season, says Kotak Life's Hemant Kanawala
  • *The Week Ahead: Nervousness to be the order of the week amidst Fed’s policy outcome.*
  • All anxious eyes will be on *FOMC outcome on Wednesday, July 26th*, especially after last Friday’s drubbing witnessed at Dalal Street. The chatter is that Fed will raise rates by 25 bps in this meeting as inflation still remains above their target rate of 2%. In the latest release, the US inflation fell to 3% in June from 4% a month back. Hence, expectations are there that the Fed may go softer after a rate hike this Wednesday.
  • Meanwhile, the Q1 earnings season will kick-off in full swing as key corporates are set to announce their financial results this week like:
  • *Monday, July 24th*: CANBK, HDFCAMC, IDBI, PNBHOUSING, TATASTEEL, TVSMOTOR,
  • *Tuesday, July 25th*: ASIANPAINT, BAJAJ AUTO, DELTACORP, DIXON, JUBLFOOD, L&T, SBILIFE, TATAMOTORS, TATAMTRDVR.
  • *Wednesday, July 26th*: AXISBANK, BAJFINANCE, BPCL, CIPLA, COLPAL, DRREDDY, OFSS, PNB, RECLTD, TATACONSUM,
  • *Thursday, July 27th*: ACC, BAJAJFINSV, BEL, BSOFT, COROMANDEL, IEX, INDHOTEL, INDIANB, INTELLECT, LALPATHLAB, LAURUSLAB, NAM-INDIA, NDTV, NESTLEIND, SHRIRAMFIN, UJJIVANSFB
  • *Friday, July 28th*: BANKINDIA, DCBBANK, EXIDEIND, M&MFIN, MARICO, PEL, RITES, SBICARD, UBL, UCOBANK.
  • *Saturday, July 29th*: IDFCFIRSTB, INOXWIND, MCX, NTPC.
  • Also, the FIIs’ fund flow will be closely monitored. Despite being net buyers for July, FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 1998.77 crores in last Friday’s trade. For Nifty to remain upbeat, FIIs robust buying participation is the key.
  • Also, volatility likely to be the hallmark this week as July series F&O contracts are expiring on Thursday, July 27th.
  • Technically speaking, Nifty’s key hurdles at all-time high at 19992 mark. Confirmation of major strength only above 19992 mark. Till then, staying nimble on long positions is the gyan mantra. However, we suspect, Bank Nifty likely to continue with its outperformance.
  • The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 19100-19800 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 19900 followed by 19800 strike prices. So, the 19900 mark will be Nifty’s crucial resistance zone. Maximum Put open interest stands at 19000 levels followed by 19800 levels. Call writing was seen at 19700 and then at 19800 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 19100 and then at 19200 strike prices.
  • # *Price Forecast:*
  • Nifty CMP (19745)
  • Support : 19303/19001
  • RESISTANCE: 19992/20251
  • RANGE: 19475 -19901
  • 200 DMA: 18105
  • Nifty PCR: 0.79
  • BIAS: Neutral
  • Bank Nifty CMP (46075)
  • Support: 44777/43600
  • RESISTANCE: 46551/48001
  • RANGE: 45355-46775.
  • 200 DMA: 42263.
  • Bank Nifty PCR: 1.04
  • BIAS: Positive
  • *Preferred trade for the week:*
  • Nifty (19745) Buy only above 19901. Targets at 20251/20561. Aggressive targets at 20751 mark. Stop at 19651.
  • *TOP SECTORS:*
  • # *Bullish Sector:* BANKS, MEDIA.
  • # *Bearish Sectors*: IT, FMCG, METALS.
  • *STOCKS IN FOCUS:*
  • # *BULLISH VIEW:* IDFCFIRSTB, SBIN, ASHOKLEY, ICICIBANK, MCDOWELL-N, MOTHERSON, COROMANDEL, UBL.
  • # *BEARISH VIEW:* INFY, TCS, HCLTECH,TECHM, CHOLAFIN, VOLTAS, HUL, ACC, HAVELLS, PERSISTENT, ULTRACEMCO, COFORGE, OFSS, DALBHARAT, ABBOTINDIA.
Panchkarma