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June 16, 2023
- *Very Good Morning!!!*
- *US Markets in Detail...*
- *SGXNifty: 18,839: +79: +0.42%*
- Today
- *Listing of Equity Shares of IKIO Lighting Limited*
- 7,72,80,701 Equity Shares of Rs.10/- each fully paid up…size: 607 cr; …IPO px: 285/-…last heard : 97/-. Anchor list attached
- *Upcoming IPO:*
- *IDEA FORGE - drone maker*
- Issue opens 26th Jun, closes 28th Jun, Anchor 23rd Jun, Issue Price around 750/-, *last heard gmp 475/-*
- *Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs. (15th June)*
- FIIs +3,086 (12,642 – 9,556)
- DIIs -298 (6,798 – 7,096)
- Sensex: 62,918 (-311) (-0.49%)
- Nifty: 18,688 (-68) (-0.36%)
- BankNifty: 43,444 (-544) (-1.24%)
- NiftyIT: 28,699 (-156) (-0.54%)
- MIDCAP: 34,907: +74: +0.21%
- Dow: 34,408: +429: +1.26%
- S&P: 4,426: +53: +1.22%
- Nas: 13,783: +156: +1.15%
- Brazil: 119,221: +152: +0.13%
- Ftse: 7,628: + 26: +0.34%
- Dax: 16,290 (-21) (-0.13%)
- Cac: 7,291 (-38) (-0.51%)
- MOEX: 2,800: +35: +1.27%
- WTI Oil: $70.62: +3.44%
- Brnt: $75.63: +3.32%
- Natural Gas: 2.53: +8.16%
- Gold: $1,971: +0.09%
- Silver: $23.95 (-0.66%)
- Copper: $390 (-3) (-0.13%)
- Cotton: $80.11 (-1.12%)
- Copper (LME): $8,509: +49: +0.58%
- Alluminum (LME): $2,254: +22: +0.96%
- Zinc (LM): $2,487: +105: +4.41%
- Tin (LME): $26,762: +697: +2.67%
- Eur-$: 1.0947: +1.1%
- GBP-$: 1.2783: +0.9%
- Jpy-$: 140.26 (-0.1%)
- Re: 82.1812: +0.09%
- USD-RUB: 83.5313 (-0.55%)
- US10yr: 3.72%
- GIND10YR: 7.036: +0.36%
- $ Index: 102.158 (-0.77%)
- US Vix: 14.5: +4.47%
- India Vix: 11.08 (-0.72%)
- BalticDry: 1,079: +5: +0.47%
- *ADR/GDR*
- Cogni: +1.62%
- Infy: +0.39%
- Wit (-0.21%)
- IciciBk (-0.35%)
- HdfcBk: +0.37%
- DrRdy: +2.95%
- TatSt (-3.26%)
- Axis (-0.84%)
- SBI (-1%)
- RIGD: +0.97%
- INDA: +0.54% (IShares MSCI INDIA ETF)
- INDY: +0.39% (IShares MSCI INDIA 50 ETF)
- EPI: +0.35% (Wisdom Tree India Earning)
- PIN: +0.62% (Invesco India Etf)
- Stock futures are near flat Thursday night as investors shifted focus from the Federal Reserve policy meeting earlier in the week toward the next piece of economic data due Friday morning.
- Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 29 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures also both traded down almost 0.1%.
- *The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged on Thursday to close at their highest in 14 months, as investors cheered economic data that fueled bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive interest-rate hike campaign. The stock rally driven by the exuberance surrounding artificial intelligence is widening beyond the tech industry, defying naysayers and raising concern about an overbought market.*
- *Investors digested a raft of U.S. economic data while shrugging off a hawkish Federal Reserve and another interest-rate hike from the European Central Bank.*
- Optimism about AI, healthy economic data, and potential end to Fed rate rises in coming months support U.S. equities
- *Treasury yields slid after a slew of economic data pointed to easing inflation, helping offset worries about future rate hikes and boosting Apple and Microsoft to record highs.*
- *Bets that the Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle sooner rather than later to prevent a recession added fuel to the equity advance, with the S&P 500 topping 4,400 and rising for a sixth straight day. All of its major groups gained. The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its surge from a September low to nearly 20%, while the Nasdaq 100 hit the highest since March 2022.*
- Microsoft Corp., which has unveiled a procession of AI-based products in recent months, climbed to a record. Lennar Corp. led a rally in homebuilders, restaurant chain Cava Group Inc. almost doubled in its trading debut and Delta Air Lines Inc. climbed for a 15th straight session. A gauge of US-listed Chinese stocks jumped with Beijing seen rolling out more stimulus to help the economy.
- In late trading, Adobe Inc. gained after raising its sales forecast on optimism that generative AI features will spur demand for its software.
- *Wall Street’s fervor will face a big test on Friday with the expiration of a massive amount of options contracts tied to stocks and indexes. The event, known as OpEx, typically obliges traders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. That usually involves portfolio adjustments that lead to a spike in volume and sudden price swings.*
- *Traders see a 67% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike in July, followed by a potential rate cut by December*
- On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 233 points, or 0.68%, to 33,979, the S&P 500 increased 4 points, or 0.08%, to 4,373, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 53 points, or 0.39%, to 13,626 after the Fed left interest rates on hold, but signaled it could hike rates again soon.
- *Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively heavy, with 11.8 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 10.9 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.*
- *What drove markets*
- U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, shaking off weakness seen in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Wednesday.
- The relentless advance brought the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to settle at their highest since April 2022. The six consecutive sessions of gains for the S&P 500 also sent the gauge above its 4,400 level, one week after the large-cap index exited its the longest bear market since 1948.
- *The rally Thursday was particularly notable given the hawkish Federal Reserve decision released after the central bank’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed held its benchmark interest rate unchanged but signaled the monetary tightening cycle is not over and more rate hikes are still on the table this year..*
- A day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the decision to leave rates steady was a continuation of the process of slowing down policy moves after aggressive rate hikes in the past 15 months, the European Central Bank lifted its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point.
- Phillip Toews, chief executive officer of Toews Asset Management, thinks Thursday’s stock-market advance is attributed to the recent bull-market momentum, which has overcome central banks’ hawkish policy outlook, as excitement about artificial intelligence sustained a rally in the technology sector, while those stocks left behind were starting to catch up to their peers.
- “I don’t think ultimately the fundamentals [of megacap tech stocks] will justify their prices, but I think it’s a competition right now between those fundamentals and market momentum and cash coming into the markets. It looks like the latter is winning right now,” Toews told MarketWatch via phone on Thursday.
- However, Toews said even though the momentum has the potential to send stocks higher in the short term, or over the next three or six months, the fundamentals of tech companies do not suggest “a great market.”
- “So we will be skeptical over a longer duration of two to three years that you’re gonna get decent gains, so at some point along this way, we expect that there probably will be some kind of a follow-up downturn, and returns will be low,” he added.
- Professional money managers were trying to boost their returns ahead of the end of the quarter by increasing their exposure to stocks, said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America, the parent of electronic brokerage tasty trade.
- “I think money managers were underinvested so we might see more of them buying into stocks as we head toward the end of the quarter,” Kinahan said during a phone interview with MarketWatch.
- Investors may also be responding to rising corporate earnings forecasts, as Wall Street warms to the notion that profits might improve in the second quarter, and during the quarters ahead.
- The reason the stock market has done so well other than the annual Russell realignment which helped a lot of small-cap stocks and of course the big AI buzz, is earnings are forecasted to increase for the next four quarters.
- *In U.S. economic data, a weekly update on the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits showed the number of first-time applicants was unchanged at 262,000, according to data released on Thursday.*
- *Retail sales, which offers some insights into the health of American consumers, came in stronger than expected in May, rising 0.3%, besting expectations for a drop of 0.2%. Sales also came in above forecast in April, when it rose by 0.4%.*
- *Two regional gauges of U.S. manufacturing sentiment showed signs that they may be improving in June after a rough patch. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index slipped further to a reading of negative 13.7, from negative 10.4 in the prior month, but the New York Fed’s Empire State Index jumped to a reading of 6.6 in June from negative 31.8 in the prior month.*
- *Finally, data released by the Fed showed U.S. industrial production declined by 0.2% in May after two straight months of gains.*
- *Market Breadth*
- *Market breadth has improved notably, with multiple sectors outside of technology exhibiting stronger relative strength trends, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.*
- “All this being said, our concern grows that leadership areas like the Nasdaq 100 index and S&P 500 remain very overbought/extended on a short-term basis,” wrote Wantrobski. “While we understand that overbought conditions such as these can last for some time, we also understand that historical data illustrates they cannot be sustained indefinitely.”
- Wantrobski says there’s still a “high probability” of a pullback ahead as we move beyond June.
- In fact, the rally in equities faces a fresh threat over the next few weeks with the world’s biggest money managers set to unload as much as $150 billion of stocks. JPMorgan Chase & Co. projects real-money portfolios will tilt back in favor of bonds to meet allocation targets, in the largest rebalancing flows to the asset class since the fourth quarter of 2021.
- The periodic rejigging could knock off as much as 5% from the price of global stocks, according to estimates by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
- *Bonds climbed Thursday, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries declining seven basis points to 3.71%. The dollar slumped the most since February.*
- *The euro rallied as the European Central Bank lifted interest rates by another quarter-point, with President Christine Lagarde describing a further hike in July as “very likely.”*
- The move came a day after Fed officials paused their series of interest-rate hikes, but projected borrowing costs will go higher than previously expected, owing to what Chair Jerome Powell called surprisingly persistent inflation and labor-market strength.
- *‘Awkward’*
- The Fed is now in a “data-dependent” mode before it delivers what may be just one final increase in US borrowing costs next month, former Vice President Richard Clarida said.
- “It was what I would call an awkward but hawkish pause,” Clarida, who is now a global economic advisor at Pacific Investment Management Co. told Bloomberg Television on Thursday.
- The US economy is holding up, but losing steam.
- While an advance in retail sales last month exceeded nearly every estimate, the report also showed consumer demand has moderated from the past year. Separate data showed factory production remained sluggish and applications for unemployment benefits held at the highest level since late 2021.
- *Elsewhere, oil rose amid strengthening demand in China. West Texas Intermediate futures approached $71 a barrel on Thursday.*
- Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value is the highest in about 20 months, a sign of the cautious mood in digital assets.
- The token wavered near $25,000 on Thursday, giving it a capitalization of $484 billion — or 45.8% of the value of the more than 10,000 coins tracked by CoinGecko. That’s the highest percentage since October 2021.
- *Friday’s market will at least see high trading volume thanks to expirations and rebalancings*
- As if the first half of the year hasn’t been unexpected enough, moves in Friday’s trading could be exacerbated further by “quadruple witching” in derivatives — the quarterly expiration of options on individual stocks, stock index futures contracts, options on stock indexes and options on stock-index futures — plus the quarterly rebalancing of some of the underlying indexes themselves.
- If nothing else, trading volume is exceptionally high on expiration days. TradeStation, which owns online securities and futures brokerages and trading technology companies, says the single busiest trading day of the second half of 2022 came on Dec. 16, 2022, the fourth quarter’s witching day.
- Meanwhile, S&P Dow Jones and some other providers rebalance their indexes on the third Friday of each quarter’s final month, changing the weightings of individual stocks, higher or lower. June’s third Friday is tomorrow, so both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes are rebalanced, which will affect demand for some stocks.
- For perspective, the Stock Trader’s Almanac says that the expiration week is often higher in bull markets and down in bear markets — the S&P 500 is up about 3% so far this week and the Nasdaq Composite by about 4% — but that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen on six of the last seven June expiration days.
- *European markets closed slightly lower on Thursday as investors digested the latest monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank.*
- The ECB increased its benchmark policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3.5% and is expected to say that future rate decisions will be data-dependent, as uncertainty weighs on the inflation and growth outlook.
- Headline inflation expectations have also been revised, with the core figure now expected to average 5.4% in 2023, 3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, according to Eurosystem data, meaning the central bank is now not expecting to reach its target rate of 2% before 2026.
- *HSBC downgraded U.K. markets to underweight from neutral, according to a note from the British bank… it expects earnings to decline by around 2% in 2023.*
- France and Spain were also downgraded by the bank (from overweight to underweight and from overweight to neutral respectively), while Switzerland and Sweden were upgraded (from underweight to overweight and from neutral to overweight respectively).
- *Companies in focus*
- • Regional bank shares were higher on Thursday with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF climbing 1.9%. Shares of PacWest Bancorp. was up 1.4%, while Valley National Bancorp jumped 3.1%.
- • Microsoft Corp. shares ended 3.2% higher for six consecutive days of gains and booked a record closing high as investors focused more on the tech giant’s artificial-intelligence roadmap instead of the stalled $69 billion acquisition of videogame publisher Activision Blizzard Inc.
- • Cava Group Inc. shares finished 99% higher above their initial-public-offering price of $22 per share as the Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain made its public market debut on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday morning.
- • Kroger Co. fell 2.7%, snapping a five-day win streak after the grocery chain reported fiscal first-quarter profit that topped expectations but net sales that came up a bit shy, and affirmed its full-year outlook.
- • Kohl's Corp rose 2.7% after TD Cowen upgraded the department store operator to "outperform" from "market perform".
- • Lennar Corp. shares rose 4.4% after the homebuilder reported results that topped Wall Street expectations, and hiked its delivery forecast for the year.
- • U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies Alibaba Group and JD.com each gained more than 3% after the People's Bank of China cut the borrowing cost for its medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months.
- *Key events this week:*
- # Bank of Japan rate decision, Friday.
- # US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday.
- *Currencies*
- # The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
- # The euro rose 1.1% to $1.0947
- # The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.2783
- # The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 140.26 per dollar
- *Cryptocurrencies*
- # Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $25,442.19
- # Ether rose 1.8% to $1,668.22
- *Bonds*
- # The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 3.71%
- # Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.50%
- # Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.38%
- *Commodities*
- # West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.3% to $70.52 a barrel
- # Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,971.30 an ounce
- N.B.: The above information is sourced from the various sites on the internet
- *Sunidhi-Himanshu*
- *CLOSING BELL*
- DOW ➖ *+428.78*
- NASDAQ ➖ *+156.34*
- S&P500 ➖ *+53.25*
- SGX ➖ *+61* (18821)
- **Bulk Deal & Insider Trade Update**
- **Bulk Deals**
- *Capacite Infraproject Ltd : Newquest Asia Investments Ii Limited Sell 1721080 Shares @ Rs. 200
- *Capacite Infraproject Ltd : Societe Generale Buy 1100000 Shares @ Rs. 200
- *Infollion Research Ser L : Blume Ventures Fund I Sell 89600 Shares @ Rs. 167.21
- *Paragmilk : Idfc Infrastructure Fund 3 Sell 1294511 Shares @ Rs. 106.06
- **Insider Trade**
- *Acquisition*
- * DEEPAK ARORA Promoter Acquisition 10000 shares of Som Distilleries & Breweries Ltd. on 15-Jun-23
- * Vineet Kashyap Promoter & Director Acquisition 37000 shares of B.L.Kashyap And Sons Ltd. on 14-Jun-23
- *Disposal*
- * MATHEW M CHERIAN Promoter & Director Disposal 10529 shares of Cochin Minerals & Rutile Ltd.-$ on 13-Jun-23
- * Marvel Indenting Private Limited Promoter Group Disposal 3700 shares of Indo Amines Ltd.
- * KAROON AGARAWAL Promoter Group Disposal 25000 shares of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
- * Arnob Roy Director Disposal 50000 shares of Tejas Networks Ltd on 13-Jun-23
- *Pledge*
- * DIWAKAR FINVEST PRIVATE LIMITED Promoter Group Pledge 485000 shares of Emami Ltd.-$ on 12-Jun-23
- * ABHYUDAY JINDAL Promoter Group Pledge 14477089 shares of Jindal Stainless Ltd. on 13-Apr-23
- **Dividend Update**
- *ANGELONE Final Dividend Rs. 4 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Avantel Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 1 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Eimco Elecon (India) Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 5 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *HDFC Life Insurance Co Ltd Final Dividend Rs. 1.9 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *High Energy Batteries (India) Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 3.5 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Piramal Enterprises Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 31 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Power Finance Corporation Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 4.5 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 20 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *SMCGLOBAL Final Dividend Rs. 1.2 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Torrent Power Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 4 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *Welspun Corp Ltd. Final Dividend Rs. 5 Ex Date 16-Jun-2023
- *SGX Nifty +70 pts (18809) from last trade 18739 ,*
- Nikkei -199 pts ,
- Hangseng +87 pts ,
- Now @6.52am .
- Dow +428.73 pts ,Nsdq +156.34 pts, S&P +53.25 pts , Bovespa +152 pts , Ftse +25 pts , Dax -20 pts , Cac -37 pts , Crude @ $70.58 brl (-0.58), Brent @ $75.67 brl (-0.00) , Gold @ 1971.40 (+0.70), Silver @ $23.98 (+0.01), Euro @ $1.0947, JPY @ $140.14, INR @ 81.905
- *Today's Corporate Action*
- *16th June Ex Date*
- ANGELONE
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 4.0000
- AVANTEL
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 1.0000
- EIMCOELECO
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 5.0000
- HDFCLIFE
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 1.9000
- HIGHENE
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 3.5000
- PEL
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 31.0000
- PFC
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 4.5000
- SHRIRAMFIN
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 20.0000
- SMCGLOBAL
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 1.2000
- TORNTPOWER
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 4.0000
- WELCORP
- Final Dividend - Rs. - 5.0000
- WIPRO
- Buy Back of Shares
- *Today's Board Meetings*
- *16-Jun-23*
- ALFATRAN
- A.G.M.;Increase in Authorised Capital
- DLCL
- Audited Results
- MASTERTR
- Increase in Authorised Capital;Issue Of Warrants;Preferential Issue of shares
- MITSHI
- A.G.M.
- *Stock under F&O ban on NSE*
- *16-Jun-23*
- 1 BHEL
- 2 DELTACORP
- 3 IBULHSGFIN
- 4 IEX
- 5 INDIACEM
- 6 L&TFH
- 7 MANAPPURAM
- 8 TATACHEM
- 9 ZEEL
- Upcoming IPO
- *IDEA FORGE*
- ISSUE OPEN 26TH JUNE
- ISSUE CLOSE 28TH JUNE
- ANCHORS 23 JUNE
- ISSUE Price 750/-
- Lot 20
- F&O #BAN
- Securities in Ban For Trade Date 16-JUN #Tomorrow