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June 14, 2023
- *12th June* 2023: Prov figs: Rs.crs
- *FIIs: - 626.62*(6,321.86- 6,948.48)
- *DIIs: + 1,793.85*(6,663.64- 4,869.79
- INDIA CPI (YOY) (MAY) ACTUAL: 4.25% VS 4.70% PREVIOUS; EST 4.31%
- INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (YOY) (APR) ACTUAL: 4.2% VS 1.1% PREVIOUS; EST 1.4%
- INDIA MANUFACTURING OUTPUT (MOM) (APR) ACTUAL: 4.9% VS 0.5% PREVIOUS; EST 1.6
- INDIA'S MAY CONSUMER PRICE-BASED FOOD INFLATION 2.91 % (YOY) - GOVT
- INDIA IMPOSES STOCKS LIMIT ON WHEAT - INDIA FOOD SECRETARY
- INDIA TO OFFER 1.5 MILLION TONNES OF WHEAT TO BULK CONSUMERS LIKE FLOUR MILLERS - INDIA FOOD SECRETARY
- Punjab chem - the stock is moving after several months of consolidation..... Good time started for the stock again? Patience is the key..... Wait and watch .....
- *[JMFL] Microfinance - Back to growth ways; credit costs to be materially lower*
- As microfinance sector enters a new upcycle, we believe it is pertinent to look into the rear view mirror with respect to performance of players in the past 3 years which was one of the toughest phases for the sector. In this note, we have attempted to deep dive across asset quality and growth performance for some of the key players in the sector. We observe that write offs over FY21-23 (across players considered – Fusion, Spandana, CREDAG, Ujjivan SFB, Bandhan, BHAFIN, Satin - UNRATED) stood at c.16% (% of avg. FY20-21 AUM, Exhibit 11) with Bandhan Bank being relatively more impacted given the sharper impact on Assam portfolio. On the AUM growth front, customer additions over the past 3 years has been only 4% CAGR vs AUM growth of 11% CAGR for the key players considered. As we enter FY24E, we expect the AUM growth to be driven on the back of higher customer acquisitions as MFIs have restarted onboarding of new customers at a healthy pace and expect the sector to grow at 20-25% CAGR over the next few years. FY24E could be a year with meaningfully lower credit costs though we see incremental push by MFI players to increase share of individual loans and non MFI loans in their portfolio. Despite outperformance over the past 6 months (c.20% avg outperformance vs NIFTY), we see the sector delivering meaningful outperformance given earnings momentum is expected to continue and valuations still remain favourable. Fusion and Bandhan are our preferred plays in the space.
- Anupam Rasayan India: The custom synthesis & specialty chemical company has signed a Letter of Intent worth revenue of $265 million (Rs 2,186 crore) for the next 5 years with a Japanese specialty chemical company to supply new age patented life science active ingredient. The product will be in validation phase for the next eighteen months and upon successful validation, the supply will commence from CY2025. This product will be manufactured in existing multipurpose manufacturing facilities.
- Media claims market overbought data shows massive shorts. US Japan India Uae all markets are either highs are near all time highs with no major participation. Dii cash chest 5.5% 1st Tim's in history. Monthly inflows crossing 15000 crs. Those who were bearish now trying to become bullish fee ling left out globally as well in India. Euphoria miles away. Monsoon next key trigger. FED no hike is another trigger and Q W this Friday should set tone of short covering of 4.5 tr $ options. There may only few stocks like TACO in F and O but there are hundreds in B gr like Integra ... baaz raftar aur bajirao ki nazar ... kafi hai.
