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May 23, 2023

*Very Good Morning!!!*
*US Markets in Detail...*
*SGXNifty: 18,362: +27: +0.14%*
*Today’s Major Financial Results*
ASHOKLEY, BAJAJELEC, BIOCON, CMSINFO, DIXON, FORTIS, GET&D, JCHAC, JKIL, JSWENERGY, LINDEINDIA, NMDC, SOMANYCERA, THYROCARE, TNPETRO, TTKHEALTH, etc.
*Listing of New Securities Hariom Pipe Industries Limited*
2139425 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each issued at a premium of Rs.335/- to Non Promoters on a preferential basis
*Listing of Auro Impex & Chemicals Ltd. (SME)*
Ipo px: 78/-, market lot: 1600
*Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs. (22th May)*
FIIs +923 (6,956 – 6,033)
DIIs +604 (5,486 – 4,882)
Sensex: 62,010: +281: +0.45%
Nifty: 18,325: +122: +0.67%
BankNifty: 43,937 (-33) (-0.07%)
NiftyIT: 29,022: +718: +2.54%
MIDCAP: 32,756: +206: +0.63%
Dow: 33,287 (-140) (-0.42%)
S&P: 4,193: flat
Nas: 12,721: +63: +0.50%
Brazil: 110,213 (-531) (-0.48%)
Ftse: 7,771: +14: +0.18%
Dax: 16,224 (-51) (-0.32%)
Cac: 7,478 (-14) (-0.18%)
MOEX: 2,633: +7: +0.27%
WTI Oil: $71.99: +0.62%
Brnt: $75.96: +0.50%
Natural Gas: 2.40 (-7.16%)
Gold: $1,996 (-5) (-0.23%)
Silver: $23.86 (-0.83%)
Copper: $369 (-5) (-1.26%)
Cotton: $86.72: +0.07%
Copper (LME): $8,201: +73: +0.89%
Alluminum (LME): $2,290 (-2) (-0.08%)
Zinc (LM): $2,477: +27: +1.08%
Tin (LME): $25,651: +404: +1.60%
Eur-$: 1.0811
GBP-$: 1.2432 (-0.10%)
Jpy-$: 138.6 (-0.40%)
Re: 82.6675: +0.08%
USD-RUB: 80.4424: +0.15%
US10yr: 3.71%: +1.15%
GIND10YR: 6.985 (-0.27%)
$ Index: 103.231: +0.03%
US Vix: 17.21: +2.38%
India Vix: 12.57: +2.20%
BalticDry: 1,384 (-18) (-1.28%)
*ADR/GDR*
Cogni: +1.59%
Infy: +2.62%
Wit: +2.58%
IciciBk (-0.30%)
HdfcBk: +0.11%
DrRdy: +1.20%
TatSt ()
Axis (-1.44%)
SBI: +1.01%
RIGD: +0.34%
INDA: +0.93% (IShares MSCI INDIA ETF)
INDY: +0.65% (IShares MSCI INDIA 50 ETF)
EPI: +0.68% (Wisdom Tree India Earning)
PIN: +1.01% (Invesco India Etf)
Stock futures are modestly higher. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 22 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures each also gained 0.1%.
*Biden told a pool of reporters that he’s optimistic progress will be made on an agreement and they should be looking at closing tax loopholes to make sure the wealthy pay a fair share. McCarthy said he was looking forward to finding common ground, after saying earlier in the day that “decisions have to be made” at this meeting.*
*The Nasdaq Composite ended at its highest level in nine months (helped by gains in Alphabet and Meta Platforms) , while the S&P (closed flat) carved out its second-highest level of 2023, on Monday as investors awaited government debt-ceiling talks set to begin after the market’s close.*
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.02% ended up by less than 1 point at 4,192.63, after failing to stay above 4,200. Monday’s level is the second-highest of the year.
*The S&P 500 drifted between gains and losses. Yields on short-term Treasuries rose. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 advanced, though chipmakers were under pressure. China said products by Micron Technology Inc. failed a cybersecurity review. Meanwhile, Pfizer Inc. rose on a report its weight loss pill may be as effective as Ozempic. And Zoom Video Communications Inc. was higher in after-hours trading after raising its annual sales forecast.*
*U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy were set to meet on Monday to discuss raising the federal debt ceiling, just 10 days before the United States could face an unprecedented default.*
*The big question on investors’ minds is whether US politicians will be able to reach a deal to raise the debt limit before the government runs out of money. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the chances are “quite low” that the US can pay all its bills by mid-June.*
*Investors are basically saying, 'We're giving at least a 60:40 likelihood that they will come to an agreement in time. An agreement could simply be the extension, kicking it down the road to decide on a debt ceiling when they also discuss the budgets in September.*
*Comments by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday that the Federal Reserve may still need to raise its benchmark interest rate by another half-point this year pushed up the U.S. dollar.*
*Investors will look for clues on monetary policy from a slew of Fed speakers and key data points this week such as the April personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index and durable goods.*
*The release of Fed minutes on Wednesday from the May meeting could shed light on how central bankers are thinking about the possibility of further rate hikes.*
Stocks ended Friday’s session with solid weekly gains, as the Dow gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite logged a 3% advance.
*Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively light, with 9.6 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 10.6 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.*
What drove markets
*President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., were scheduled to meet at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Monday at the White House. The Treasury Department has warned that a failure to raise the debt limit could result in a federal default as early as June 1, or what’s known as the so-called X-date.*
The debt ceiling is at the forefront of the market’s thinking, given the proximity to the X- date. There are probably things that are nonnegotiable and negotiable in the negotiations, and, knowing how most of these things go, it will probably be the last second or minute that they reach a compromise because no one wants to be perceived as caving in.
We’re going to get some volatility around it before we reach some conclusion,” and Treasurys look more attractive than equities right now.
*Veteran negotiators on both sides resumed talks Monday morning in the Capitol, but mandatory government spending cuts remain a major obstacle. Republicans insist on paring back spending to baseline 2022 levels, but Biden said that any cuts across the board without additional tax hikes are out of the question.*
Some investors remain wary about the tech-driven nature of the rally, even while bulls welcome the S&P 500’s temporary move above 4,200 — a level which it broke through on Monday, but failed to hold through the end of trading.
*Investors are starting to get concerned about what’s happening with the debt ceiling talks, but on the other hand, the economy still is pretty strong, the job market’s really strong*
While the technology trade may have further to run, some on Wall Street say stronger market breadth is needed for a rally to continue longer term.
To not have a broad group of stocks participating in a rally is “a bad sign for the duration of a bull market,” said Phil Toews, chief executive of Toews Corp. in New York, which manages $1.2 million in assets.
In addition, “we think that this sanguine attitude by investors about the debt-ceiling issue is a potential big mistake,” Toews said via phone. “The U.S. doesn’t have to default to create market chaos. With potentially nine days left before the X-date, we think the market is underreacting. People should watch the negotiations very carefully right now.”
There were no major U.S. economic releases on Monday, but Federal Reserve officials provided fresh remarks.
*In a CNBC interview, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that “right now, it’s a close call between raising in June or skipping.”*
*“Important to me is not signaling that we’re done. If we were to skip in June, that does not mean that we are done with our tightening cycle,” said Kashkari, a voting member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.*
*Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Monday that he would like to see two more quarter-of-a-percentage-point interest-rate hikes this year.*
Regional banking stocks were lifted by news that PacWest Bancorp has agreed to sell a portfolio of 74 real estate construction loans to a subsidiary of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc
Shares of larger lenders were subdued, with JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) 0.8% lower despite the company saying its net interest income will rise $3 billion as interest payments increase from its purchase of failed First Republic Bank this year.
"Everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said at the bank's investor day Monday. "Five percent's not high enough for Fed funds - I've been advising this to clients, and banks, you should be prepared for six, seven."
Shares of *Pfizer Inc surged over 5%* after its diabetes drug, in a mid-stage trial involving patients with type 2 diabetes, resulted in weight loss similar to that of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, data published in a medical journal showed.
Dow component Chevron dipped 1.8% after the oil major said it would acquire PDC Energy Inc in an all-stock transaction for $7.6 billion, including debt.
*In a move perceived as ramping up U.S.-China trade tensions, Beijing barred chipmaker Micron Technology Inc from selling memory chips to key domestic industries, sending its shares 2.85% lower.*
*Elsewhere, Greek markets were a bright spot. Sunday’s national election resulted in a strong showing for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, signaling investment-friendly policies can continue. The benchmark Athens Stock Exchange Index jumped to its highest level in almost a decade. Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 600 was little changed on the day.*
*Commodities were broadly weaker because of concern over China’s post-Covid economic recovery. Iron ore futures dropped on signs of disappointing steel demand from the construction sector. However, Asian equities ended higher after Biden hinted about improving relations with Beijing. His prediction that Sino-US ties would “begin to thaw very shortly” lifted Hong Kong stocks more than 1%.*
Cryptocurrencies were flat to start the week as movements in stocks and bond yields continued to push and pull on crypto prices.
Bitcoin was down 8.7% for May and on pace for its worst month since November, according to Coin Metrics. Ether was lower for the month by nearly 5% and heading for its worst month since December.
*European stock markets closed mixed on Monday, with investors keeping an eye on U.S. debt ceiling talks and Greek election results.*
*Companies in focus*
# China’s government told users of computer equipment deemed sensitive to stop buying products from the biggest U.S. memory-chip maker, Micron Technology Inc. Shares finished down by 2.9%.
# Shares of Meta Platforms Inc. closed 1.1% higher, shaking off premarket weakness seen after the social-media giant was fined €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) by Ireland’s Data Protection Commission over allegations it violated European Commission rules on data protection.
# Chevron Corp. announced an agreement on Monday to buy Colorado-based oil and gas producer PDC Energy Inc. in an all-stock deal valued at $6.3 billion, or $7.6 billion when including debt. PDC shares ended 7.2% higher, while Chevron’s stock finished down by 1.8%.
# Shares of Greenhill & Co. Inc. closed 116% higher after Japan-based Mizuho Financial Group announced an agreement to buy the independent investment bank in an all-cash deal valued at $550 million, including debt.
*Key events this week:*
# Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI, Tuesday
# US new home sales, Tuesday
# Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks, Tuesday
# Fed issues minutes of May 2-3 policy meeting, Wednesday
# Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
# US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
# Interest rate decisions in Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea, Thursday
# Tokyo CPI, Friday
# US consumer income, wholesale inventories, durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
*Currencies*
# The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
# The euro was little changed at $1.0811
# The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2432
# The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 138.60 per dollar
*Cryptocurrencies*
# Bitcoin was little changed at $26,870.54
# Ether rose 0.6% to $1,816.85
*Bonds*
# The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.72%
# Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.46%
# Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.06%
*Commodities*
# West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $71.99 a barrel
# Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,992.80 an ounce
N.B.: The above information is sourced from the various sites on the internet
*Sunidhi-Himanshu*
PORINJU ENTERS KOKUYO CAMLIN
VIKAS KHEMANI ENTERS MATRIMONY.COM
*Economy is slowly but surely recovering, yet no room for complacency*
The Indian economy is slowly but surely recovering from the hit caused by the pandemic and European war but there is still no room for complacency, the Reserve Bank of India staff said on May 22.
“An environment of low and stable prices is necessary for strengthening the foundations and resilience of this recovery. Eternal vigil with a readiness to act is its price,” the staff, which included RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra, wrote in the State of the Economy article in the latest central bank bulletin.
“On this, a final ‘refrain’ in the poetic sense of the word – we can do no better than quote the words of Governor, Shri Shaktikanta Das: “We remain firm and resolute in our pursuit of price stability which is the best guarantee for sustainable growth”.”
India is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy globally.
Growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 may be at 7.8 percent year-on-year, according to RBI’s projections, which works out to 13.7 percent above its pre-pandemic level, according to the article. The RBI pegs the full year growth at 6.5 percent.
The RBI’s rate-setting panel in April kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5 percent after raising it sharply over the last 12 months as it withdrew pandemic-era stimulus and sought to curb red-hot inflation, which is now declining.
With a gradual normalisation of the hit from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war setting in, growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 could be driven by private consumption, supported by a revival in rural demand that is underway on the back of the encouraging developments in both the kharif and rabi seasons, the sustained buoyancy in services, and the moderating inflationary pressures, the RBI staff said.
Meanwhile, the investment activity is also expected to improve, drawing strength from the thrust on capital expenditure in public spending and moderation in commodity prices, it added.
Private capital spending will need to get stronger to add additional capacity as demand picks up, as capacity utilisation in manufacturing is at trend levels and above it in some industries, according to the article.
“The manufacturing sector as a whole is expected to gain from softening input cost pressures. If services exports maintain their recent high profile, the drag from net external demand should moderate through April-June 2023,” it added.
The external sector and weather-related uncertainties pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, the Finance Ministry said in its latest monthly economic review.
*

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