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April 04, 2025

Daily Morning Report | Date: 04.04.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 23,250.10 | FII: -2,806.00 cr | DII: 221.47 cr
As discussed, the market opened negative near the support of 23,133 (day low: 23,145.8) following the U.S. President's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries. However, it defended the support and recovered to close in the green.
After Tuesday’s sharp fall, two consecutive bullish candlesticks have formed on the daily chart, suggesting the downtrend is losing strength and the market is attempting to stabilise. If the index sustains above 23,318, a rally toward 23,377–23,443 is possible. Strong buying may further push it to 23,519.
On the downside, 23,187–23,123 is immediate support. A break below this may drag the index to 23,057–23,037 or even 22,995.
Bank Nifty Outlook:
Spot: 51,597.35 | PCR: 1.06 | Max CE OI: 53,000 | Max PE OI: 50,000
On 3rd April 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 51,597.35, up 0.49%. The index moved 754.95 points intraday, hitting a high of 51,661.60 and a low of 50,906.65.
The previous day's high (51,661.60) and low (50,906.65) may act as resistance and support for today’s session.
Technical View on Daily Chart:
Key Levels: Resistance – 51,900 | Support – 51,200
On 3rd April, Bank Nifty opened gap-down near the 50,900 support, rebounded, and rallied 750 points, closing at 51,597.35.
If the index crosses 51,900 and sustains, it may rise to 52,250, followed by 52,750. A break below 51,200 could push it back to 50,900, with further downside to 50,300.
The RSI stands at 65.6—below 30 is oversold, above 70 is overbought.
Bank Nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank Nifty is trading above all 8 SMAs (5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200-day) and below none.
Two Bullish candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
• Marubozu Uptrend
• Belt Hold Uptrend
Macros:
1. Dollar index @ 101.525.
2. Vix @ 30.02 (+39.56 % )
3. Crude @ 69.86.
4.10 years bond yield @ 4.01.
Note:
As expected, U.S. markets plunged after Trump escalated the tariff war. Analysts warned that tariffs would raise costs for U.S. companies reliant on imports, squeezing profit margins and earnings. The risk of passing these costs to consumers also heightened inflation concerns.
Investors fear that aggressive trade policies may trigger retaliatory measures, leading to a full-scale trade war that could disrupt global supply chains and slow economic growth. Sixty countries are affected, with China hit hardest as total tariffs on its exports to the U.S. reached 54%. The EU, Japan, and India face tariffs ranging from 20% to 26%, raising fears of a global economic slowdown.
Conclusion: The impact of the tariff war must be closely monitored in the coming months. Equities will likely face high volatility over the next 8-10 days. Countries may either negotiate with the U.S. or impose counter-tariffs, creating uncertainty until deals are finalized.
Imported goods in the U.S. will become costlier, forcing companies to absorb losses or pass the burden onto consumers, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
Sector Outlook:
Negative
IT
Postive
Power buy on dips of 3-5%
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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UBS on PVR
Maintain Buy; lower price target from Rs2,000 to Rs1,350
Inertia to go to theaters is higher than we expected; therefore, occupancy is structurally lower
But the stock price and valuation still make PVR attractive
Believe PVR could improve in FY26 after a tepid FY25, on a strong content pipeline
UBS on BOB
Upgrade to Buy on stable outlook and attractive valuations
Expect loan growth of ~12% over FY25-27 while a higher mix of MCLR book would keep the NIM compression modest
NIMs to witness relatively lesser pressure vs private peers
Valuations undemanding; Expect credit costs to remain controlled
UBS on SBI
Risk-reward balanced; Upgrade to Neutral from Sell , Raise Target Price to Rs 840 (from Rs760)
Tax rebate in the budget and likely implementation of eighth pay commission recommendations are incrementally positive for SBI customers.
Expect limited risk to NIM as we expect decline in cost of deposits (c5.1% in Q3) in FY26-27E and a higher MCLR proportion (c40%) to support in a rate cut cycle.
NUVOCO VISTAS Management Says The deal solidifies our position as India’s fifth-largest cement player, optimizing logistics, streamlining operations, and strengthening supply chains for better market access and customer value.
Trump on market reaction: It's going very well, The market is going to boom.
HIMADRI SPECIALITY; Board approved acquiring a 60% stake in Trancemarine and Confreight Logistics Private Limited for ₹4.23 crore in cash.
After completion, Trancemarine will become a subsidiary, and its subsidiary, Sturdy Niketan Private Limited, will be a step-down subsidiary.
Himadri Special; The move aims to strengthen the company’s presence in the critical and industrial minerals sector.
Additionally, a loan of up to INR 150 Crores will be extended to Sturdy Niketan Pvt Ltd (a step-down subsidiary) for royalty payments, with terms including 9.5% interest and secured repayment.
This strategic step supports Himadri’s expansion in resource extraction with a focus on innovation and sustainability
Nite; Trancemarine and Confreight Logistics Private Limited holds 99% shareholding in Sturdy Niketan Private Limited
*WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT - BIG MOVES*
-> SPX -4.84%, Nasdaq -5.97%, Russell 2000 -6.55%
-> US equities had their worst day since 2020
-> Complicated futher by weaker eco data (weaker ISM & more)
-> VIX shot up +39.6% to 30.02
-> UST 10y yield lost 10 bps to 4.03%
-> Brent Oil down 6.8% to $69.85
-> Dollar Index -1.74% to 102
-> Yen rallied > 2% against dollar to 146.10
-> Gold weakened 0.80% to $3110
-> Later tonight: US jobs data will be important. Fed Chair Powell will speak after the data
GIFTNifty lower, indicates a gap-down start for the Indian market
Asian shares fall after worst Wall Street day since 2020 - CNBCTV 18
Cues This Morning | NMajor sell-off in silver, gold slides, oil plunges as OPEC+ hikes supply; US bond yields hit multi-month lows.
Get ready for today's trading session with the latest global and Indian markets news wrap!
Q4 UPDATES
STRONG-AVENUE SUPERMART, HDFC BANK, UCO BANK, ADANI WILMAR
INLINE/MIXED-BAJAJ FINANCE, LT FINANCE, VEDANTA, BANDHAN BANK
WEAK-RBL BANK, YES BANK
Dow plunges 1,679 points, worst drop since 2020.
S&P 500 falls over 5%, Nasdaq down 6%.
Tech stocks hit hard, Apple loses $300B in value.
Global markets slide, Europe & Asia see sell-offs.
TRUMP ON MARKET REACTION: IT'S GOING VERY WELL+MARKET IS GOING TO BOOM
Goldman Sachs has lowered its annual average forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices, citing tariff escalation and somewhat higher OPEC+ supply+Our annual average forecasts are now $69/66 (a barrel) for Brent/WTI in 2025 and $62/59 in 2026, which is $4 below forward-curve implied 2026 annual averages
MORGAN STANLEY ON ABFRL
Maintains 'Underweight' Rating With Target Price Of ₹271
Management Underlined Its Core Message That Future Growth Will Be Organic
Top Priority Will Be To Deliver Profitability Even Pursing Inorganic Opportunities Turns Favorable
Change, If Executed, Could Trigger A Significant Re-Rating For The Stock
CLSA on Federal Bank
Initiate Coverage with Outperform ; TP Rs.230
Bernstein on IT
Infosys remains top pick in large caps for its ability to benefit from a rebound in
Discretionary IT spending margin resilience
In SMIDs, Coforge & Persistent (post 10% correction) stand out with strong order books & growth momentum
Remain U-P on LTTS, Tata Elxsi
IMF CHIEF GEORGIEVA SAYS WE APPEAL TO THE U.S. AND ITS TRADING PARTNERS TO WORK CONSTRUCTIVELY TO REDUCE TENSIONS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO AVOID STEPS THAT COULD FURTHER HARM THE WORLD ECONOMY
U.S. TARIFF MEASURES REPRESENT A 'SIGNIFICANT RISK TO THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK' AT A TIME OF SLUGGISH GROWTH - ETNOW
CLSA ON FEDERAL BANK
Initiate coverage with Outperform; target price 230
On the right path
Slow and steady wins the race
While the near-term outlook is muted, expect the bank to pluck low-hanging fruit and improve returns over the next three years
FY26 NIM likely to compress
Expect NIM to decline 20 bps over the next three quarters and then improve
Stock is inexpensive at 1.1x PB / 9x PE (FY27)
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders ; Govt to sell upto 4.83% stake at Rs 2525/share via OFS
OFS for retail investors opens on April 7
Govt holds 84.83% stake in co as on December quarter
CLSA on Tata Motors
Downgrade to O-P from High Conviction O-P, TP cut to Rs 765
This cuts JLR’s FY26CL Ebitda by 15%, though expect it to remain FCF positive in both FY26/27CL
Reduce target JLR EV/Ebitda multiple from 2.5x to 2.0x due to near term growth challenges
FITCH Says US growth in 2025 may slow below 1.7% due to higher tariffs, weakening consumer sentiment, and reduced spending+Tariffs will raise prices, cut profits, and hinder investment, making the Fed cautious about rate cuts despite potential protection benefits.
Fitch downgrades China to 'A'; outlook stable
Angel One March Update
--Gross Client Acquisition Down 2.2% MoM & Down 43.6% YoY At 0.47 m
--Client Base Up 1.4% MoM & Up 39.5% YoY At 31.02 m
--Number Of Orders Up 2.8% MoM & Down 22.8% YoY At 102.08 m
DEE DEVELOPMENT: CO WINS AN ORDER WORTH RUPEES 55 CR
BANKING STOCKS
DFS secy chairs meeting with commercial banks
Govt asks banks to prepare a strategy to improve deposit mobilization
Banks instructed to submit their deposit mobilization strategy soon
PLUS PSU BANKS-UPDATES ARE STRONG AND HNI BUYING SEEN
COMMERCE MINISTER
Latest hot thing on the block is instant delivery
It had been better if we had Indian investors in startups
I need more Indian investors into the game
Doing agreement with Australia, EU, Peru, Chile
Can't take the world to grocery stores and say these are India's startups
HIMADRI SPECIALITY CHEMICAL: CO TO ACQUIRE 60% STAKE IN TRANCEMARINE AND CONFREIGHT LOGISTICS FOR RUPEES 4.23 CR TO ENTER RESOURCE EXTRACTION SECTOR
+VE CNG
ONGC CHAIRMAN:FROM AGENCIES
India's diesel demand growth is muted
India's oil, gas demand to continue to grow at 3%-4%
MORGAN STANLEY ON RBL BANK
Maintains 'Underweight' Rating With Target Price Of ₹150
Bank Lost Market Share In Deposits, & Grew Loans In Line With The System
A Shift Toward Retail Is A Positive
MFI Collection Efficiency In March Improved To 99%; Will Need To See If This Can Be Sustained
Jefferies on Chemical
Reciprocal tariff of 27% applies to all exports to US for NFIL, PI, SRF & UPLL.
NFIL with 23% of rev from US is most exposed, followed by PI (15%), UPL (est 10-12%) & SRF (8%)
Cos expect to pass through
Rate NFIL/PI/ UPLL at Buy
SBC on Varun Beverages
Buy, TP Rs 670
Expect a healthy start to year as beverage industry is gearing up for summer selling season in India
For 1Q, model 14% organic volume growth in India
With M&A, forecast 30% revenue and 31% EBITDA growth
MS on IDFC First BK
EW, TP Rs 58
Gross funded assets growth remained strong at 20.3% YoY vs 20.4% in F3
Deposits growth (as per est.) was at 6.4% QoQ vs. 5.9% QoQ in prior quarter
Total customer deposits grew by 6.7% QoQ vs. 4.3% QoQ in prior qtr
CITI on Avenue Supermart
Sell, TP Rs 3350
4Q update highlighted 16.7% YoY rev growth
Avg rev/store grew 3.1% YoY (1-7% YoY growth in previous 4qtrs), while avg rev/sq ft (throughput) grew 2.8% YoY (assuming avg store size of new stores in line with TTM)

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