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June 18, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 18.06.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24853.40 FII: Rs. 1482.77 cr DII: Rs. 8207.19 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained in line with expectations. On the downside, Nifty respected our support of 24813, making a low of 24813.7.
A bearish candle following a bullish one has formed a bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the daily chart, indicating bulls are losing strength and bears are attempting to take control. If Nifty decisively breaks below 24789, it may test 24726–24663. If supply pressure increases, there are chances it could test 24597.
On the upside, resistance is expected around 24917–24983. A breakout above and sustained move may push Nifty towards 25045–25107.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 55714.15 PCR: 0.68 Max CE OI: 56000 Max PE OI: 56000
On 17th June 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55714.15, down 0.41% from the previous day. The index moved 423.35 points during the session, making a high of 56067.30 and a low of 55643.95.
Technical View on Daily Chart:
Key support and resistance levels remain unchanged at 55010 and 56050 respectively.
Today’s Technical Strategy:
Go Long above 56100 with a stop loss of 55900 and target of 56500
Go Short below 55600 with a stop loss of 55800 and target of 55300
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.50. (Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought)
Bank Nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Trading above 5 out of 8 SMAs (30, 50, 100, 150, 200-day)
Trading below 3 out of 8 SMAs (5, 10, 20-day)
No candlestick pattern identified in Bank Nifty.
Macros.
1.Dollar index @ 98.30
2.Vix @ 21.60 ( +13.03 % )
3.Brent crude @ 76.43
4.US 10 years bond yield @ 4.399
Note:
The Iran-Israel war has now entered its sixth day. Wall Street slipped on reports of a potential U.S. entry into the conflict. According to The Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump is considering various options, including a possible U.S. strike on Iran, after a meeting with top advisers in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday.
On the economic front, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Economists largely expect the Fed to hold rates steady in the 4.25%–4.50% range. However, investors will closely watch Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for any dovish signals, especially after a softer May CPI print.
Weak U.S. retail sales and manufacturing output data are indicating a slowing economy. President Trump's aggressive and shifting tariff policies have added to economic uncertainty. While tariffs have clearly impacted large-ticket purchases, especially autos, broad-based consumer spending hasn't yet shown major declines. However, a deeper slowdown is expected in the second half as tariffs begin to affect real disposable incomes.
Conclusion:
The Middle East conflict is escalating with increasing geopolitical risk. Simultaneously, the U.S. economy is showing early signs of pressure due to the tariff war. Investors should remain extremely cautious and avoid aggressive fresh buying.
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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MINI DIAMONDS: Reports 65% revenue growth in FY25, reaching ₹405.6 Cr; net profit at ₹3.3 Cr.
Expanded retail via Namra Jewels; opened flagship store in Worli. Started in-house CVD manufacturing.
Entered Middle East with A V PALACE DMCC. Exported to Canada.
Launched hallmarking unit; lab-grown diamond sales surged 3.5x.
@beatthestreet10
VOLTAS: MOSL downgrades to Neutral from Buy; TP cut to ₹1350 from ₹1600.
FY26/27 UCP revenue estimates reduced by \~14%, margin cut by 80bp/40bp. EPS slashed by \~17%/14%.
Management cites 20–25% YoY RAC demand drop in Apr–May due to poor weather; partial recovery seen in June.
@beatthestreet10
Blue Star : Cut production by 20% in May and over 25% in June as a weaker-than-expected summer season dampened air-conditioner demand.
Aimed to grow at 25-30%, grew only 5% in April.
@beatthestreet10
Symphony : Inventory in the channel is slightly higher than last year.
Seeing muted summer performance so far.
@beatthestreet10
RARE-EARTH SOURCING: Australia being explored as alternative source for rare-earth magnets.
Govt prioritizing fast-tracking National Critical Minerals Mission, recycling, and circular economy.
Non-PLI support, use of tailings under review. All mines to test dumps for critical minerals from June.
Key partnerships with Argentina, Brazil, Chile to continue; lithium from Chile crucial for 2030 EV goals.
@beatthestreet10
GLENMARK PHARMA: Receives 5 observations from USFDA after GMP inspection at Monroe, North Carolina (June 9–17).
Form 483 lists procedural issues; no data integrity concerns flagged.
Glenmark to submit response within timeline.
Mildly Negative – Short-term regulatory overhang, but limited downside due to non-critical nature of observations.
@beatthestreet10
PM MODI, US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HOLD TELEPHONIC TALKS
@beatthestreet10
BSE DOWN 5 % ON EXPIRY DAY SHIFT TO THURSDAY... BROKERAGE FIRMS EXPECTS BSE'S VOLUME FALL
@beatthestreet10
HIND ZINC: Management maintains FY26 volume guidance; may revise post H1FY26 – CNBC-TV18.
Phase 2 expansion to add 4.5L T zinc, 2L T lead, 750T silver.
Capex to be split 50:50 between debt and internal accruals.
Full mining-to-smelting plan aligned with global benchmarks; Phase 2 capex details in 50 days.
@beatthestreet10
DIXON : Lenovo will double output of Make-in-India devices in 2 years Says Official- BS
@beatthestreet10
HINDUSTAN ZINC: Plans to double total capacity to 2 MT (1.6 MT zinc, 0.4 MT lead) from current 1 MT – ET NOW.
₹12,000 Cr capex to be funded via debt and equity mix.
Targeting ₹10,000–11,000 Cr annual profit; to use operating cash flows for capex.
Also entering rare earth mineral mining with a long gestation outlook.
@beatthestreet10
GS on BSE
Neutral, TP Rs 2430
BSE announces shift in expiry day to Thursday
Reiterate view that by moving expiry day to Thursday, BSE could lose 3pp of market share within index options premium near term
Now expect BSE to to get back to 24% share by Mar’26
Another reference point to affirm BSE’s gains in this space are active derivatives clients relative to NSE levels, which have risen from under 40% to 50% over last 6 mths
Cut FY26E EPS by 2%, but FY27/-28E EPS est. largely unchanged
MOSL on BSE
Downgrade to Neutral, TP Rs 2300
Shift in expiry to dent market share
Expect 350-400bp hit on premium market share
Reduce premium average daily turnover (ADTO) estimates for FY26/FY27 to INR137b/INR157b from INR155b/INR190b earlier
This is translating into a reduction of 9%/12% in FY26/27 earnings estimates
Stock trades at FY27E P/E of 53x, significantly higher than its historic average as well as that of its global peers
Jefferies on BSE
Maintain Hold with target price of Rs 2,900
SEBI has confirmed swapping of equity derivatives expiry days for NSE (to Tue) & BSE (to Thurs) w.e.f. 1-Sep-25
Expiry day shift may impact volumes a tad; Scope to mitigate impact
Our interactions with mkt participants indicate a 5-10% impact on vols in near-term & build-up thereafter
BSE's ability to build liquidity in longer-term contracts can offset this impact & implementation of common contract note can aid mkt share in cash segment (85%+ margin)
Trim EPS est by 1-2% to factor tad lower vols
UBS on BSE
Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 2,633
New expiry day can impact BSE's market share gain momentum
Change in expiry mathematically can impact 15% of volumes on loss of one trading day for BSE
We expect gain in volumes on non-expiry day for BSE negating some loss of volumes due to change in expiry day
Avendus on Navin Fluorine
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 4800
Capex phase to Cash flow phase shift to asset-heavy model is paying off, with key projects entering ramp-up &driving RoIC improvement
Asset turns expected to rise from 0.9x (FY25) to 1.2x (FY27E), supporting RoIC expansion to 18%
Positioning Co as partner of choice for global innovators
With commissioning of larger cGMP facilities capable of handling late-stage & mature molecules,CDMO biz expected to see greater stability & reduced earnings volatility
Jefferies on Nykaa
Buy, TP Rs 240
Overall margins should expand over the medium-term but growth is a priority.
Wellness is also expected to gain mgmt focus.
Nuvama on Voltas
Neutral, TP Rs 1190
i) 20–25% YoY dip in RAC vol industry-wide
ii) similar trend for itself
iii) Pickup in June, particularly in north
iv) channel inventory of six– eight weeks
v) freebies being rolled out by players
MS on Avenue Supermart
UW, TP Rs 3260
Co opened a store at Ratan Mall, Agra (UP)
This is 1st major store opening In UP after city of Ghaziabad, which is India's most populous state
View this opening in UP as +ve & would closely track pace of expansion
Nomura on IndusInd Bank
Upgrade to Buy, TP Raised to Rs 1050
Legacy issues addressed;RoA to improve to 1% by FY27F
Commitment from board to improve governance, ongoing search for new CEO & clear intent to “start FY26F on a clean slate” crucial +ve
Val @0.9x 1yr fwd BV inexpensive
Also, RBI’s recent statements acknowledging IIB’s recovery efforts, provide a degree of regulatory comfort.
RBI’s potential approval for promoter to raise stake in bank could allay some investor concerns
GS on L&T
Maintain Neutral; Hike TP to Rs 3400 from Rs 3260
Expect a good quarter; all eyes on international execution
Expect healthy double digit growth in revenue, EBITDA and PAT driven off a strong order book
Expect 20 bps improvement in core EBITDA margin at 8% vs 7.8% in Q1FY25
Will closely look at commentary on Middle East given the increasing geopolitical uncertainty in the region
Citi on Trent
Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 7,600
200 store expansion per year likely doable ensuring quality/experience, economics and location
New stores reach very high throughput/maturity within 12-24 months of opening
Majority of the SSSG for Trent is volume driven as Trent does not take price hike
Jefferies on Adani Ports
Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 1,700
Targets to be among the world's largest integrated transport utility companies by 2030
Annual report reiterates focus on having a strong presence in South East Asia- India-Middle East-Africa Corridor

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