Date: 29 October 2026
Market Bias: Bearish primary trend, with the short-term recovery attempt yet to be confirmed.
The latest chart shows a rebound from the October lows near 71,300–71,600. However, the Sensex continues to face resistance around the declining moving average, indicating that the broader bearish trend remains intact.
1. Key Technical Readings
| Indicator | Level / Observation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Latest chart OHLC | Open: 73,253.44; High: 73,525.44; Low: 72,603.57; Close: 73,246.03 | Recovery attempt with limited follow-through |
| Moving Average | 73,756.30 | Immediate trend resistance |
| RSI | Around 50 | Momentum has recovered but remains neutral |
| Traffic Signal Levels | 71,802.73; 72,724.59; 73,125.02; 73,646.46; 74,568.33 | Key support and resistance reference levels |
2. Key Decision Levels
Bullish Recovery: A sustained close above 73,756, followed by a breakout above 74,568, would strengthen the recovery outlook. A higher high would provide further confirmation.
Immediate Trading Range: The 72,725–73,646 zone is the key near-term decision band. Sustaining above its upper boundary would improve the recovery outlook.
Bearish Continuation: A close below 72,603 would weaken the rebound. A decisive break below the October swing-low zone of 71,300–71,600 would significantly undermine the possibility of a swing bottom.
3. RSI and Moving Average Analysis
- The RSI recovery towards 50 suggests that the earlier oversold condition has eased.
- An RSI near 50 indicates neutral momentum rather than strong bullish conviction.
- The moving average remains on a declining trajectory, with the Sensex trading below it. The primary trend therefore remains bearish.
- Recent green buy signals indicate a rebound attempt. However, the subsequent red sell signal near the moving average warns of renewed selling pressure.
4. Trading Strategy
Preferred Approach: Wait for confirmation rather than aggressively buying the rebound.
- Long Trades: Consider bullish setups only after confirmation above 73,756, with stronger confirmation above 74,568.
- Sell-on-Rise Opportunities: Watch for rejection near the moving average and upper Traffic Signal levels, subject to confirmation of renewed weakness.
- Risk Management: Monitor 72,603 as the immediate downside reference and 71,300–71,600 as the key structural support zone.
- Investment Accumulation: Consider phased accumulation only if key support levels hold. Avoid assuming that the long-term trend has reversed.
Final MTDR Verdict
The October rebound raises the possibility of a short-term swing bottom, but a bullish trend reversal remains unconfirmed. The declining moving average, neutral RSI and recent sell signal indicate that selling pressure could re-emerge. A sustained move above 73,756 and, subsequently, 74,568 would improve the recovery outlook, while a breakdown below 72,603 would weaken it further.
Leave A Comment