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January 13, 2025

Navigating the Opening Bell with Sbi Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights
Q3 Earnings: A Decisive Moment for Market Sentiment
1. Global Market:
On Friday, U.S. markets experienced widespread selling pressure following stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data, which fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates at current levels or ease reductions at a slower pace. Adding to the pressure, rising bond yields weighed on sentiment. The #Dow plummeted 1.63%, the S&P 500 declined 1.54%, and the #Nasdaq fell 1.57%.
Going ahead, for S&P 500, the zone of 5790-5770 will act as crucial support for the index. If the index slips below 5770, then the next support is placed at 5700 level. On the upside, the zone of 5870-5890 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
The #BrentOil witnessed a sharp upside rally on Friday, and it ended above its 200-day EMA level for the first time after October 2024. Going ahead, considering the current chart structure, it is likely to test the $82 level in the short term.
U.S. Dollar Index (#DXY) also witnessed a sharp upside rally, and it has given a highest daily closing since November 2022, which is a negative sign of emerging markets like India. Going ahead, any sustainable move above the level of 110 will lead to a sharp upside rally in DXY.
2. Nifty View:
After two weeks of consolidation, the benchmark index Nifty has resumed its downward trajectory, shedding over 2% in the past week and closing below the crucial 23500 mark. This decline has resulted in the formation of a sizeable bearish candle on the weekly chart. Notably, for the last three trading sessions, the index has been trading below its 200-day EMA, a critical long-term support level, which adds to the bearish undertone and raises concerns about further downside risks.
Most notably, the past week saw significant corrections in the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Small Cap indices, which plummeted by 5.77% and 7.29%, respectively. This sharp decline highlights broad-based selling pressure across the market, signaling caution among participants beyond the frontline indices.
On Thursday, TCS officially kicked off the Q3 earnings season, setting the stage for what could be a defining period for the markets. With investors closely monitoring corporate performance amid global and domestic challenges, these results are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. As the earnings unfold, the focus will remain on growth trajectories, margin pressures, and management outlooks, making this season a potential make-or-break moment for market direction.
Going ahead, the prior swing low zone of 23260-23200 will act as crucial support for the index. If the index slips below the level of 23200, then we may witness further correction in the index upto the 22800 level.
While, on the upside, the 200-day EMA zone of 23670-23700 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
On the #derivatives front, January #futures dipped by 0.62 percent, while the combined #OpenInterest for the current, next, and far series surged by 2.24 percent, which indicates an overall short build up.
Among the constituents of the #Nifty index, 9 stocks have witnessed a long build-up, and 5 stocks have witnessed a short covering rally. While 17 stocks have witnessed a short build-up, and 19 stocks have witnessed a long unwinding.
The 23500 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 23600 strike. On the put side, 23400 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 23300 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.73. For the January monthly series, it is at 1.13.
For the fifth consecutive trading session, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty has been trading below its 200-day EMA level, which is a bearish sign. Currently, it is trading below its 200-day EMA level by more than 3 percent. Further, the daily RSI is currently quoting at 28.50 level, which was the lowest level since October 2023. This indicates an overall strong bearish momentum in the index.
3. Sensex View:
The benchmark index, Sensex, has also resumed its southward journey and ended the week below the 77400 level with a loss of 2.33 percent. It has formed a sizeable bearish candle on a weekly scale.
Going ahead, the zone of 76800-76700 will act as a crucial support for the index. If the index slips below the level of 76700, then we may witness further correction in the index upto the 75500 level.
While, on the upside, the 200-day EMA zone of 78000-78100 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
On the #derivative front, January #futures dipped by 0.57 percent, and the #OpenInterest of the current series has surged by 15.77 percent, which indicates an overall short build up.
The 77500 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 78000 strike. On the put side, 77000 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 76500 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.67.
4. Key Market Indicators:
The volatility index, India VIX, surged by over 10 percent last week. However, since the last couple of trading sessions, it has been oscillating in the zone of 13-16 level. A decisive breakout above 16 or below 13 in the India VIX could trigger a sharp trending move in the index.
The #Advance/Decline ratio was largely tilted in favor of decliners.
5. Key Sectors:
Leading Quadrant: On the RRG graph, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, and Nifty Oil & Gas are positioned in the leading quadrant, indicating expectations of continued relative outperformance in the current weak market structure.
Improving Quadrant: Nifty CPSE and Nifty MNC are currently in the improving quadrant, and they are on a rising trajectory, suggesting that these sectors are also poised for short-term outperformance.
Weakening Quadrant: Nifty IT has rebounded from the weakening quadrant, and it is moving towards the improving quadrant. It is likely to outperform in the short term.
6. FII/DII Data:
#FIIs sold to the tune of 2254.68 cr. while #DIIs bought to the tune of 3961.92 cr.
FIIs' #Long-short ratio for index futures is at 15.87 as on a net basis, they sold 9981 index futures.
On the stock #futures front, FIIs have bought to the tune of 58089 contracts, while on the #Options Front, FIIs sold 11414 call contracts and bought 24367 Put Option contracts.
CLSA on Hyundai
Initiate Outperform with TP of Rs 2155
Aspirational yet affordable
Going through a period of low growth amidst elevated utilisation
With few major launches in FY26, capacity addition from the newly added Talegaon plant should be key to growth from FY27
Expect loss of market share is set to end with the new plant coming online
e-Creta launch in coming months could be just the first step towards creating an affordable EV portfolio
Hyundai is superior in terms of unit economics and incremental RoCE to Maruti
GS On BSE
Initiate Neutral Call, Target At Rs5,060/Sh
Co Stands To Benefit From Strong Growth Tailwinds For Country’s Equity Capital Markets
Strong Nominal Growth In Indian Listed Corp Earnings Acts As A Powerful Compounder
Expecting 11% Cash ADT CAGR & Index Options Market Share Gain To 17%
Options-reform Driven Lower Clearing Charges To Drive 10% Of EBITDA Margin & 5% Of RoE Expansion
With Valuations Near All-time Highs, Peg In Line With Global Peers & Risk-reward Largely Balanced
Bernstein On DMart
Outperform Call, Target At Rs5,800/Sh
Amidst Low Expectations, Co Delivered A Positive Q3FY25
Q3 EBITDA & PAT Margin Declines Were Largely Due To Higher Grocery Share
Key Highlight Was Unexpected Announcement On Change In CEO Starting 2026
Q3FY25 Same-store Sales Growth Seems To Have Recovered But It May Be Seasonal
Expect Limited Same-store Sales Growth Improvement Further Over Next 1-2 Quarters
Weakness In FMCG Share Will Continue & Grocery Will Keep Gaining As Key Strength
JPMorgan On DMart
Neutral Call, Target Cut To Rs4,150/Sh
Q3 EBITDA/PAT Was Below Estimate Due To Higher-than-expected Employee/Other Expenses
Gross Margin Was Broadly Flat QoQ & YoY Despite Adverse Mix
Appointed Of Anshul Asawa As CEO Designate Was An Important Development
MS On DMart
Underweight Call, Target At Rs3,260/Sh
Q3 Margin Was Lower Than Estimates
Discounting Intensity Remains, Though Impact Was Lower Sequentially, As Per Management
Mgmt Commentary In Recent Quarters Has Raised Doubts About Growth Algorithm
CITI on DMart
Sell, TP Rs 3350
Despite improvement in SSG (from 5.5% in 2Q to 8.3% in 3Q); EBITDA/PAT missed Citi est by 9%/12% led by EBITDA margin contraction (-50bps YoY)
Co appointment of Anshul Asawa as CEO Designate as Neville Noronha will step down in Jan’26
CITI on Divis Labs
Buy, TP Rs 6850
In a latest ruling US Federal Circuit has reversed district court’s earlier ruling on Entresto & affirmed that patent expiring in July 2025 is not invalid.
With this ruling, generic launch has been averted at least till July 2025
Though had never been very worried about decline in Divi’s supply of Sacubitril/Valsartan APIs to innovator Novartis, ruling may remove an overhang
Separately, latest export trends suggest 3Q rev may remain flattish but margins may expand QoQ
Macquarie On Paints
Acknowledge Sustained Demand Weakness & Thus Moderate EPS Est & Target Price
Maintain View Of Limited Impact From Grasim's Entry
Uncertainty Is Compounded By Proposed Sale Of Akzo's Decorative Business
Preference Remains On Asian Paints (Outperform Call), Followed By Kansai Nerolac (Neutral Call)
BoFA on Biocon
Maintain Buy, TP 435 (From 400)
Malaysia follows Benguluru facility-USFDA clears both
To increase confidence for upcoming bio-similar launch pipeline
Annualized revenue to increase from $1bn in H1FY25 to $1.2bn in FY26
Deleveraging and new launch performance now in focus
Macquarie on Financials
Expect FY26 to show better loan growth and stable year
Slight moderation in margins and stable credit costs exoected
Large private banks-solid 16-17% EPS and 16-17% ROEs
NBFC select risk-reward
Insurance-regulatory overhang
LIC Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight, TP at 1215 (from 1200)
ICICI Lombard Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight, TP at 2255 (from 2000)
SBI Life Downgraded Overweight to Neutral, TP at 1435 (from 1830)
PB Fintech Downgrdaed from Neutral to Underweight TP at 1530 (from 1220)
Top picks HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Aditya Birla Capital, PFC, Shriram Housing Finance
MS on AB Capital
Upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight, TP 247
Stock is down 24% in the last three months (vs. -5% for Sensex).
Forecast F24-27 AUM CAGR of 20%
EPS CAGR of 18% resulting in ROE of 15%+ in F27 for the NBFC business
Enjoys strong funding access due to its parentage
Has managed asset quality reasonably well over the years
MS on PB Fintech
Downgrade to Underweight from Equal Weight, TP 1400
Key concern F27 EV/adjusted EBITDA at ~65x.
Profit emergence has been weaker than expected
Stock outperformance has tracked strong core new business premium growth (>60% in 1HF25).
Expect the stock to derate as core new business premium growth moderates in FY26
Paisabazaar has also been facing challenges
MOSL on Shriram Finance
Maintain Buy, TP 700
Top pick for 2025 in NBFC coverage universe
Execution as a merged entity has been superior to its peers
to deliver a PAT CAGR of ~19% over FY24-27E
RoA/RoE of 3.3%/17% in FY27E.
See scope for further re-rating
If sustains the execution on its AUM growth, margins and credit costs
HSBC On Life Insurance
Industry’s Individual APE Growth Remained Muted In Q3FY25
Industry’s Individual APE Growth Impacted By Revised Surrender Norms, Weak Equity Markets
Growth For Pvt Insurers With High Bancassurance Sh In Individual APE Was Impacted More Than Others
In Dec’24, SBI Life Reported Healthy Growth Over A Strong Base
Sustained APE Growth Would Be A Key Catalyst
CLSA on Max Financial
Maintain Overweight, TP 1405
Preferred Pick
Collapse of structure and listing of Axis Max Life Insurance could release holdco discount.
The insurance amendment bill likely to be tabled in budget session of parliament is a key trigger
CLSA on Cholamandalam Investment
Maintain Hold, TP 1450
Channel checks in Lucknow highlighted a strong festive season for vehicle loans
optimistic on sales growth in all categories barring M&HCV trucks
Expect home loans and LAP to compound at a c.25% CAGR given its small size and rising geographic penetration.
Believe a further 10% correction in the company would warrant another more attention to the stock
CLSA on SBI Cards
Maintain Hold, TP 750
Company recently hiked interest rates on revolver loans by 25bps per month
Rate cut scenario is beneficial for NIM as 60% of borrowing is linked to T-Bill rates
Opex/spending is down 25-30bps in the past four quarters
Positives are overshadowed by a big negative—asset quality.
Credit costs have increased from 6% to 9% over the past eight quarters
LifeInsurance December Business Data
LIC: Dec premium down 41% (YoY), 9MFY25 premium up 7% (YoY)
LifeInsurance December Business Data
Life Insurance Industry: December premium down 22% (YoY), 9MFY25 premium up 10% (YoY)
JUST DIAL Q3 HIGHLIGHTS
ADJ EBITDA Up 6 % To 86.7 Cr Qoq, Up 43 % YOY
Margin at 30.2 % V 28.8 % QOQ, 22.8 % QOQ
Total Traffic ( Unique Visitors ) Down 3.5 % To 191.2 Mn QOQ,UP 15.3 YOY. Sequential decline was on expected lines due to impact of festival weeks during the quarter
Total Active Listing up 2.8 % To 47.5 Mn QOQ, Up 14.2 % YOY
Active Paid Campaign Up 0.4 % To 6.01 Lkh QOQ, UP 6 % YOY
JD App Downloads Up 2 % To 39 Mn qoq, Up 9 % YOY
ICICI SEC ON DMART
Maintain Reduce, target price ₹3300
Uncertainty in medium-term growth trajectory
Like for Like growth trajectory improved
Cut earnings estimates by 1%/3% for FY25/FY26 due to lower margin an assumptions
NUVAMA ON AVENUE SUPERMART (DMART)
Maintain Hold, revised target price of ₹4,212 (from ₹5,040)
Margins likely to remain under pressure due to high competition
Management prioritizing market share over margins P
Revenue and PAT estimates trimmed for FY25 and FY26
MOSL ON SHRIRAM FINANCE
Maintain Buy, target price at ₹700
Top NBFC pick for 2025 due to strong post- merger execution
PAT CAGR projected at ~19% over FY24- 27E
RoA/RoE estimated at 3.3%/17% in FY27E
Potential for further re-rating if AUM Ugrowth, margins, and credit costs remain strong
DOWNGRADES:
SBI Life: Overweight to Neutral, target price at ₹1,435 (from ₹1,830)
PB Fintech: Neutral to Underweight, target price at ₹1,530 (from ₹1,220)
TOP PICKS:
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Aditya Birla Capital, PFC, Shriram Housing Finance
MACQUARIE ON FINANCIALS
FY26 expected to deliver better loan growth with stable performance
Margins may slightly moderate while credit costs stay stable
Large private banks forecasted to post 16-17% EPS growth and ROES
Selective risk-reward for NBFCs; insurance faces regulatory overhang
UPGRADES:
LIC: Neutral to Overweight, target price at ₹1,215 (from 1,200)
ICICI Lombard: Neutral to Overweight, target price at 2,255 (from ₹2,000)
CITI ON DMART
Maintains 'Sell' Rating With Target Price Of 3,350 (9% Downside)
Margin Contraction On Account Of Decline In General Merchandise & Apparel Mix
Margin Contraction On Account Of Increased Discounting, Negative Operating Leverage
EBITDA Growth Has Lagged Revenue Growth In 9 Out Of Last 10 Quarters
Seek Better Entry Point, Valuation As Risk-Reward Seems Unfavourable At 69x FY26 P/E
BOFA ON BIOCON
Maintain Buy, target price 435 (From 400)
Malaysia follows Benguluru facility-USFDA clears both
To increase confidence for upcoming bio- similar launch pipeline
Annualized revenue to increase from $1bn H1FY25 to $1.2bn in FY26
Deleveraging and new launch performance now in focus
NUVAMA ON CESC
Maintains 'Hold' Rating With Target Price Of ₹175 (8% Upside)
CMP Factors In Tariff Hike Benefits, Timely Renewable Execution, Regulatory Asset Recovery
Q3 Results Were Weak, Missing Estimates By 26%
Q3 Earnings Hurt By Widening Malegaon Losses, Lower Regulatory Income
Higher Visibility Of Co's Renewable Energy Transition
Company Aims To Add 3.2 GW Of Renewables By FY29
JEFFERIES ON SMALL & MID CAP STOCKS ( SMID )
SMIDs Outperformed In 2024, With Stronger Earnings Expectation As Key Driver
Brokerage Staying Selective, Bullish On EMS, 2025 Capex Recovery, Housing Themes
Like Amber Enterprises Due To Margin Accretive Component Diversification
Like Polycab India As A Play On Capex
V-Guard Could Have Further Upside From Sunflame Synergies
Supreme Ind On Holistic Play On Plumbing, Agri, Housing, Capex
Goldman Sacs on BSE
Initiate Neutral, TP Rs 5060
BSE stands to benefit from strong growth tailwinds for equity capital markets
As BSE operates on a fixed-take-rate biz model based on value traded, strong nominal growth in Indian listed corporate earnings acts as a powerful compounder
Expecting 11% cash ADT CAGR and index options market share gain to 17%, along with options-reform-driven lower clearing charges to drive 10pp of EBITDA margin and 5pp of ROE expansion
With val near all-time highs, risk-reward balanced
Macquarie on Paints
Acknowledge sustained demand weakness in paints industry, & thus moderate EPS est. & TP
Maintain view of ltd impact from Grasim's entry, though uncertainty is compounded by proposed sale of Akzo's decoratives biz
Prefer APNT (O-P) followed by KNPL(Neutral)
MACQUARIE ON PAINT
ASIAN PAINTS ; OUTPERFORM, TARGET 2650
KANSAI NEROLAC ; NEUTRAL, TARGET PRICE, 255
BERGER PAINTS ; UNDERPERFORM, TARGET 400
PIDILITE IND ; UNDERSTANDING, TARGET 2600
News Headlines from Business News Agencies:
Business Standard
FMCG distributors rally to defend turf against qcom, ecom competitors
JNPA will become first Indian port cross 10 mn TEU capacity mark: Wagh
Sebi's SIF move aims to deepen corporate bond market for investors, issuers
Air India aims to double international transit traffic in three years
Favre Leuba eyes India as key market for global comeback, partners with Ethos for exclusive retail
India holds meeting with Nepal govt; wheat supply of 200,000 MT confirmed
Centre approves oil and gas exploratory drilling in Assam sanctuary
US sanctions on Russian oil supply chain pose challenge for Indian refiners
TCS expects margin benefits as BSNL deal tapers, says CFO Samir Seksaria
Windsor has created much-needed disruption in EV market: Parth Jindal
Luxury electric vehicle retail sales in 2024 clock 6.7% growth: Fada
Realtors seek stamp duty cuts, revised home loan limits in Budget
FY26 profit growth hinges on revenue trajectory: UTI AMC CIO Subramaniam
Economic Times
DMart's fundamental business principles should stay intact: CEO Neville Noronha
SAIL, John Cockerill to invest around ₹6,000 crore in building downstream steel plant
HNIs, foreign funds continue to be bullish on Goa's realty
PepsiCo names Nitin Bhandari beverages chief
Oberoi Realty to redevelop 2.5-acre land parcel in Mumbai’s Bandra reclamation
Phone makers seek PLI renewal, say there's more to be done
Signature Global invests nearly Rs 300 cr to buy land in Gurugram for new housing project: Chairman
Pharma lobby seeks 2-year extension of schedule M deadline
Indian Railways to run a record 13,000 train services for Maha Kumbh
Travel and accommodation platforms report surging demand for Maha Kumbh
Mint
DMart Parent Taps Unilever’s Asawa to Take Over as CEO in 2026
India’s sky-high household debt faces a year of reckoning
FinMin to review financial inclusion schemes on January 15
Parliamentary panel reviews price spike of medicines
Government partially restores gas supply to IGL, Adani Total
NCLAT dismisses appeal to stay insolvency proceedings against Indrajit Power
IBA seeks blanket corporate tax holidays for compressed biogas production
Sebi may revise ₹500 cr derivative exposure limit for institutional investors
Govt to revamp revival framework for MSMEs
Oil sizzles to 3-month high on US sanctions; Brent rallies 4% to $80
PVUNL to commission three 800 MW units in phase-1 by December this year: CEO

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