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January 10, 2025

Parmeshwar Metal Ltd IPO Witnesses Exceptional Success Backed by Solid Anchor Book Support and Impressive Market Debut!
Lead Manager: Beeline Capital Advisors
Navigating the Opening Bell with Sbi Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights
Key Support at 23440: Breakdown May Trigger Deeper Correction
1. Global Market:
On Thursday, the US markets were closed to honor former President Jimmy Carter. However, the Dow Future is currently trading in negative territory.
#BrentOil marked a low of $75.46 level and thereafter witnessed a sharp rebound on Thursday. Going ahead, the zone of $77.50-77.70 will act as a crucial hurdle for the Brent Oil.
U.S. Dollar Index (#DXY) ended on a positive note on Thursday. Going ahead, any sustainable move above the level of 109.50 will lead to a sharp upside rally in DXY.
2. Nifty View:
On the weekly expiry day, the benchmark index Nifty remained confined to a narrow range of 186 points, marking the third consecutive session of such muted movement. However, Thursday's close near the day's low signals a bearish undertone in the market.
Going ahead, the zone of 23460-23440 will act as crucial support for the index. Any sustainable move below the level of 23440 will lead to further correction upto the level of 23260 level.
While, on the upside, the resistance shifted lower in the zone of 23680-23700 level.
On the #derivatives front, January #futures dipped by 0.56 percent, while the combined #OpenInterest for the current, next, and far series surged by 6.66 percent, which indicates an overall short build up.
Among the constituents of the #Nifty index, 7 stocks have witnessed a long build-up, and 8 stocks have witnessed a short covering rally. While, 18 stocks have witnessed a short build-up, and 17 stocks have witnessed a long unwinding.
The 23600 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 23700 strike. On the put side, 23500 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 23300 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.70. For the January monthly series, it is at 1.13.
Bank Nifty has remained comfortably below its 200-day EMA for the past four trading sessions, underperforming the frontline indices. Looking ahead, a sustained move below 49200 could trigger further selling pressure, pushing the index toward the 48700 level.
3. Sensex View:
The benchmark index #Sensex also ended on a negative note on Thursday.
Going ahead, the zone of 77400-77300 will act as immediate support for the index. Any sustainable move below the level of 77300 will lead to further correction upto the level of 76700, followed by the 76300 level.
While, on the upside, the resistance shifted lower in the zone of 77800-77900 level.
On the #derivative front, January #futures dipped by 0.55 percent, and the #OpenInterest of the current series has surged by 101.33 percent, which indicates an overall short build up.
The 78000 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 78200 strike. On the put side, 77500 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 77000 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.53.
4. Key Market Indicators:
The volatility index, India #VIX ended surged by 1.33 percent on Thursday. Currently, it is trading above its short and long-term moving averages. Going ahead, any sustainable move above the level of 15.60-15.70 will lead to resume its northward journey.
The #Advance/Decline ratio was largely tilted in favor of decliners.
5. Key Sectors:
Technically, Nifty Metal, Media, CPSE and PSE space are likely to underperform in the short term.
On the other hand, Nifty FMCG is outperforming the frontline indices.
6. FII/DII Data:
#FIIs sold to the tune of 7170.87 cr. while #DIIs bought to the tune of 7639.63 cr.
FIIs' #Long-short ratio for index futures is at 16.17 as on a net basis, they sold 29508 index futures.
On the stock #futures front, FIIs have sold to the tune of 59646 contracts, while on the #Options Front, FIIs sold 4129 call contracts and 2559 Put Option contracts.
IPO Analysis for 2024
1. Total IPOs: 90
2. Negative listing : 18 IPOs
3. Average negative returns on listing : -8%
4. Positive listing : 72 IPOs
5. Average Positive returns on listing : 39.61%
6. IPOs with positive returns till date : 65%7. Average positive returns till date: 64%
8. IPOs with Negative returns till date: 25 IPOs9. Average Negative returns till date: - 16.40%
10. IPOs given Positive return after negative listing : 5
11. IPOs given negative return after positive listing : 1212. BEST IPO of 2024 : Jyoti CNC Automation
13. Worst IPO of 2024: Popular Vehicles
14. IPOs given more than 100% returns : 12
15. IPOs given more than 50% to 99% returns: 16
16. IPOs given more than 0% to 49% returns : 37
WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
-> US equity markets were shut, bond markets closed early
-> UST 10y yield ended almost unchanged
-> Dollar Index firmed a touch, nearly 109.20
-> Fed's Collins, Bowman, Schmid & Harker reiterated their preference for a slower approach to adjusting interest rates
-> Brent Oil up 1.4% to $77.22
-> US jobs data is key risk into the weekend, consensus at 165k jobs & 4.2% unemployment rate
Nomura on TCS
Maintain Neutral, target price ₹4,020 (reduced from ₹4,050)
Modest revenue miss versus consensus
Decision-making cycle improving with signs of discretionary demand recovery in CY25
Backfill of BSNL revenue remains uncertain in FY26
Margin improvement likely in FY26
CLSA on TCS
Upgrade to O-P, TP Rs raised to Rs 4546
Multiple growth vectors ahead
Val on relative basis & 5-yr avg. looks attractive
3Q another dismal quarter from both growth & margin perspectives
Demand commentary improving materially with a sharp pick-up in its orderbook
AI another key positive for demand ahead
Jefferies on TCS
Buy, TP Rs 4760
3Q in line with est., but were encouraged by management comments on early signs of revival in discretionary spends (esp. in North America BFSI) &healthy order bk
Moreover, ramp-down of BSNL deal may provide scope to improve margins
HSBC on TCS
Hold, TP Rs 4540
3QFY25 performance was unmemorable, though TCS was more optimistic for CY25 based on good deal wins in 3Q, early signs of discretionary spend pickup, & reduced deal cycles
Performance seems to have bottomed out, though still see downside risk to FY26
Nuvama on TCS
Maintain Buy, target price ₹5,200 (from ₹5,100)
Modest revenue in line with expectations; decent margin expansion
Management upbeat on BFSI and retail, expecting both verticals to have bottomed out and to recover over the next few quarters
Maintains medium-term margin target of 26- 28%, aiming to reach close to 26% in Q4FY25
Most positive commentary in two years; a positive sign for the entire industry
MS on Tata Elxsi
UW, TP cut to Rs6,000 from Rs6,500
F3Q missed expectations
Weakness in European transportation continues & significant recovery in Media & Healthcare remains elusive
With ltd growth visibility, potential cut to consensus nos & high val, stk could continue to U-P
JPM on Tata Elxsi
Underweight, Target Price cut to Rs5,400 from Rs5,700
3Q missed sharply on both rev & margins for 2nd successive qtr, with flat CC QQ rev growth coming in 100bps below JPMe, & Ebit margins declining 160bps QQ, 180bps below JPMe
Cut earnings by 3-5% over FY26-27E
Macquarie on IRCTC
Initiate Outperform, target price ₹900 (20% upside)
Monopoly in Indian Railways e-ticketing and catering services
Generates 30% free-cash-flow margin and 30% ROE/ROIC
Key catalysts: railway modernization and faster launch of premium trains
Sees potential for 2x returns
DAM Capital on Lloyds Metals
Initiate, Buy Target Price Rs1,905
Co Has A Diverse Set Of Operations With An Iron Ore (High Grade) Mining Capacity Of 10 mt
Iron Ore (High Grade) Mining Capacity Is Proposed To Be Extended To 25 mt By 4QFY25
Co Will Be Moving Up In Steel Value Chain By Setting Up Integrated Steel Facilities
Expect EBITDA To Rise At A CAGR OF 91% From FY25 Το FY27
EBITDA To Be Driven By Higher Ore Volumes & Improving Value-Added Mix.
CLSA on Bajaj Finance
Maintain Outperform, target price Rs9,200
PAT growth to rebound in FY26 after downgrades
Top pick in the financials sector
Forecast 25% AUM CAGR and 27% PAT CAGR over FY25-27
Expect stock returns to align with earnings growth and a 20 bps credit cost improvement in FY25
CLSA on Eicher Motors (Management Meet)
Maintain Hold, target price Rs4,883 (from Rs4,909)
Focused on higher volume growth and protecting EBITDA margins through scale benefits
Refreshing 350cc, 450cc, and 650cc segments for growth
Expanding assembly capacity to 1.4 million units annually with new painting and chrome facili
Replacement demand at 7-8% of domestic sales, expected to rise soon
Strong semi-rural presence with top 20/50 cities contributing 25%/45% of volumes
Jefferies on CDMO Players
CY25 to be a decisive year for earnings performance in CDMO space
Strong earnings growth expected, but slippages could impact high valuations
Key triggers: US policy shifts (Biosecure Act), biotech funding trends
Remain selective with Piramal Pharma as the top pick
Piramal Pharma: Maintain Buy, target price ₹310 (from ₹260)
Syngene International: Upgrade to Hold from Underweight, target price ₹890 (from ₹740)
Gland Pharma: Downgrade to Underweight from Hold, target price ₹1,630 (from ₹1,840)
Laurus Labs: Maintain Underweight, target price ₹450 (from ₹300).
Citi Equity Strategy
Have a constructive outlook on equity returns given the market’s more reasonable valuations post recent corrections
Our Dec’25 NIFTY target is 26k
Our Key OW Sectors: Banks, Telecom, Healthcare
Key UW: Consumer Discretionary, IT, Metals.
JPM on Metals
Lower price targets across coverage to reflect weaker volumes and tighter spreads
Safeguard duty on steel imports could benefit JSW Steel and Tata Steel
Awaiting clarity on Karnataka minerals tax impact on iron ore mining
Hindalco's US business profitability outlook for FY26 under watch
JSW Steel (Top Pick): Maintain Overweight, target price ₹1,010 (from ₹1,065)
Coal India: Maintain Neutral, target price ₹435 (from ₹470)
Tata Steel: Maintain Overweight, target price ₹155 (from ₹170)
Hindalco: Maintain Overweight, target price 435 (from ₹470)
GS on Indusind Bank
Downgrade IndusInd Bank to Neutral from Buy
Cut EPS by 5%/16%/18% over FY25/FY26/27E
Cut in TP by 17% to Rs1,090/share
ROAs to stay lower at 1.3% over FY25-27E, Risk-Reward Balanced
Revenue engines slowed over the last two quarters; we expect them to be further impacted due to rising delinquencies in the commercial retail portfolio (MSME/CVs etc) and slower loan growth

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