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January 29, 2025

ANANT RAJ;CLARIFICATION ON MEDIA REPORTS.
As AI tools become more specialized, demand for data centers and computing capacity will increase, not decrease.
The Company's real estate business is unaffected by AI developments. Focused on colocation, most capital is spent on enhancing data center capacity.
The new "Ashok Cloud" IaaS offering excludes AI, and the Company does not offer PaaS or SaaS, so AI advancements won't impact its services.
Anantraj crash from 900 to 534 just in 1 week. Any thing happened in stock market. Always be prepared for any unexpected in stock market & never put all eggs in 1 basket. Always must diversified your capital in different assets class like property, gold, silver, diversified MF, bank fd etc.
The move would rationalise direct taxes and enhance disposable incomes while limiting revenue losses to Rs 50,000 crore or 0.14% of GDP, it said.
Read more at:
https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/union-budget-2025-move-all-to-new-tax-regime-increase-nps-and-insurance-exemptions-says-sbi-research/117588841?
What’s Coming in Budget 2025-26?
This Budget is set to be packed with big decisions, and everyone’s on edge—taxpayers, investors, industries, you name it. The stakes are high, and expectations? Even higher. From tax tweaks to bold sectoral reforms and fiscal policies, all eyes are on what’s next.
Wondering what to expect? Dive into exclusive insights on potential game-changers, sector-specific expectations, and fiscal policies reshaping India's future.
https://blog.liquide.life/union-budget-2025-stocks-to-watch/
Navigating the Opening Bell with Sbi Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights
Gap-Up Start, Volatile End: Nifty Closes with Indecision
1. Global Market:
Following Monday's sharp decline, US markets saw a rebound on Tuesday, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which jumped 1.59%. The S&P 500 gained 0.92%, while Dow managed a modest rise of 0.31%, marking a broad-based recovery.
Going ahead, the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward journey and test the level of 6130, followed by 6200 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 6020-6000 will act as immediate support for the index.
#BrentOil took support near its 100-day EMA level and thereafter slid into the period of consolidation. Going ahead, any sustainable move below the level of $75.30 will lead to further correction upto the level of $74.
The U.S. Dollar Index (#DXY) ended higher by 0.45 percent on Tuesday. Going ahead, any sustainable move above the level of $108.20 will lead to resume its northward journey.
2. Nifty View:
The benchmark index Nifty opened with a gap-up on Tuesday and maintained a slow but steady upward trajectory throughout the day. However, a sharp correction of over 180 points in the final trading hour led to the formation of a Doji candlestick on the daily chart, signaling indecision at current levels.
Meanwhile, Nifty Midcap and Nifty Small Cap 100 continued their downward trend but showed a slight recovery from lower levels
Going ahead, for Nifty, the zone of 22870-22850 will act as immediate support. If the index slips below the level of 22850, then we may witness the correction upto the 22700 level.
On the upside, the zone of 23130-23150 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. If the index surges above the 23150 level, then we may witness a pullback rally upto the level of 23280 level.
On the #derivatives front, January #futures surged by 0.57 percent, while the combined #OpenInterest for the current, next, and far series also surged by 3.13 percent, which indicates an overall long build up.
Among the constituents of the #Nifty index, 15 stocks have witnessed a long build-up, and 10 stocks have witnessed a short covering rally. While 9 stocks have witnessed a short build-up, and 16 stocks have witnessed a long unwinding.
The 23000 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 23100 strike. On the put side, 22900 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 22800 strike.
For the January monthly series, OI PCR is at 0.89.
Bank Nifty strongly outperformed frontline indices on Tuesday, reaching a high of 49247 before witnessing a sharp correction of nearly 400 points in the final hour of trading. Moving forward, the 49200-49300 zone will serve as a critical resistance, while the 48450-48400 zone will provide immediate support for the index.
3. Sensex View:
On the monthly expiry, the benchmark index #Sensex touched a high of 76512 before experiencing a sharp correction of over 600 points in the final hour of trading. This price action led to the formation of a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow, reflecting selling pressure at higher levels.
Going ahead, the zone of 75600-75500 will act as immediate support for the index. While, on the upside, the zone of 76400-76500 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
On the #derivative front, February weekly #futures surged by 0.74 percent, and the #OpenInterest of the current series has also surged by 122.96 percent, which indicates an overall long build up.
The 76000 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 76500 strike. On the put side, 75500 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 75000 strike.
For the February weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.79.
4. Key Market Indicators:
The volatility index, India #VIX, ended above 18 levels for the second consecutive trading session. Also, it is trading above its short and long-term moving averages, which is a bullish sign. This indicates that overall market volatility has increased significantly.
The #Advance/Decline ratio was tilted in favor of decliners.
5. Key Sectors:
Technically, Nifty Media, CPSE, PSE, Energy, Metal, Oil & Gas, Realty, Pharma and Healthcare space are likely to underperform in the short term.
On the flip side, Nifty Private Bank is showing relative strength.
6. FII/DII Data:
#FIIs sold to the tune of 4920.69. cr while #DIIs bought to the tune of 6814.33 cr.
FIIs' Long short ratio for index futures is at 24.91 as on a net basis, they bought 34514 index futures.
On the stock #futures front, FIIs have bought to the tune of 41877 contracts, while on the #Options Front, FIIs bought 216365 call contracts and sold 77779 Put Option contracts.
GS on SBI Card
Buy, TP Rs 912
Strong 3Q with PAT beating GSe by 4% driven by 2% operating profitability beat, & stable loan loss provisions.
Investors’ focus on asset quality heading into qtr where
1) mix of stage 2 assets improved sequentially
2) absolute recoveries rose+23% YoY
3) incremental mgmt commentary was encouraging, highlighting an inflection point in asset quality cycle
4) quality of new sourcing improved
UBS on SBI Card
Neutral, TP Rs 800
Miss due to higher credit cost & weak fee income
Q3 spends declined 11% YoY; Margins stable QoQ at 10.6%
Management believes credit cost near peak
CLSA on SBI Card
Hold, TP Rs 780
3Q PAT missed est by 8% driven by higher credit costs.
Loan growth slowed down and NIM was stable.
A slightly weak fee income was offset by another good quarter on opex.
However, credit costs jumped from 9% to 9.5% QoQ and are up 200bp YoY
Bernstein on SBI Card
Underperform Call, Target Price At Rs620/Sh
Mgmt Notes: Peak Credit Costs Have Been Reached, With Reduced Flow From Delinquencies
No Guidance Was Provided On The Pace Of Improvement Or The New Normal For Credit Costs
However, Management Emphatically Declared That The Bottom Had Been Hit
Nuvama on SBI Cards
Maintain Buy, TP at 885 vs 850
Credit Cost rose again by 8% QoQ to 9.4% in Q3FY2
CEO is confident that credit cost would decline from Q4FY25
SBI Cards would benefit if RBI cuts the repo rate
Better asset mix is emerging, with reductions in Stage 2 and Stage 3 compositions and improving delinquencies.
HSBC On SBI Card
Reduce Call, Target Rs580/Sh
Growth Outlook Has Weakened Following Q3
Asset Quality Outlook Remains Unclear Too
Cut EPS By 10.8%/11.2% For FY25/FY26 To Reflect Higher Credit Costs.
Improvement In Asset Quality Remains Elusive
CLSA on MGL
Maintain Outperform, TP Rs1,710
Positive surprise on margins beats PAT
Volumes comes inline with expectations
Lower taxes offset higher than depreciation and interest costs
Macquarie on MGL
Maintain Outperform, TP Rs1,280
Earnings largely inline-margin miss
Believe current decline in margins is prices in and now upside is there
Build 8% CAGR volume growth from FY24-27E
Risks includes rising input gas prices and further cuts in APM gas allocation
Jefferies on IGL
Upgrade to Buy from Underperform, TP Rs505 (from Rs295)
Co has managed significant volume of long term LNG contracts at attractive prices
Raise EPS 52%/55% for FY26/27E
See limited near-term impact on ROCE
Volume growth in Q3 muted, but outlook remains better
CLSA On IGL
Outperform Call, Target Rs440/Sh
Q3 PAT Was A Big Beat To Est
Mgmt Guided For A Healthy 10% Vol Growth Over FY26-27
Mgmt Upgraded Its Unit EBITDA Margin Guidance To Rs7-8/scm From Rs6-7/scm
Well-Planned RM Sourcing Should Offset Impact Of Cuts In Cheap Gas Supply
This Drives A 6-11% Increase In FY25-27 EPS
Price Hikes After Delhi State Elections On 5 Feb May Be A Catalyst
MS On Hyundai
Overweight Call, Target Rs2,261/sh
Co Reported A Weak Set Of Earnings In Q3
Weaker Export Mix And A Rise In Domestic Discounts Post The Festive Season
Maintain That Business Is At A Volume & Model-Cycle Trough
Model-Cycle Aligned With Capacity Expansion Could Play Out In FY27
Valuations Appear Supportive
Citi On Bajaj Auto
Sell Call, Target Rs7,900/Sh
EBITDA Slightly Ahead Of Estimates Due To Better Gross Margin
Mgmt’s Outlook Is Positive
Expectations Of 6-8% YoY Volume Growth For 2w Industry Over Near Term
Focus Is On Margin
Co Has Ceded Mkt Shr In High-Vol But Equally Competitive Entry-Lvl Bikes Segment
Rich Valuations Prevent Us From Being More Constructive
MS On Bajaj Auto
Overweight Call, Target Rs9,951/sh
Reported Standalone EBITDA Broadly In-line With Est
Mgmt Expects Domestic Motorcycle Ind To See Sustainable Growth Of 6-8%
Mgmt Expects More Than 125cc Segment To Grow Faster
Co Expects Exports To Grow At 20%+ YoY Going Ahead
EV Portfolio, Including The PLI Gains, Is Now EBITDA Positive.
Within 2-w, New Chetak 35 Platform Is Supporting Margin Improvement
Axis Capital on Bajaj Auto
Maintain Sell, TP Rs7,550 (from Rs8,000)
Q3 EBITDA largely in line with estimate
Exports continued to recover with strong YoY growth in LatAm and sequential growth in Africa
Despite new launches, the company lost over 100 bps market share in 9MFY25, which is a concern
Cut FY25-27E EPS by 7% on lower volume assumption
Nuvama on Bajaj Auto
Maintain Buy, TP Rs10,700
EBITDA slightly above estimate- due to better pricing/scale, PLI incentives and cost savings
Management has provided a positive volume outlook for the next three–six months
With exports growth at 20%-plus and domestic growth of 6–8%
2Ws to clock volume CAGR of 7% over FY25–27E
Revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 11%/12% over FY25–27E with an average RoE of ~35%
Macquarie on TVS Motors
O-p, TP Rs 2857
3Q FY25 saw a modest EBITDA beat led by better gross margin.
Believe market-share gains & margin expansion will drive industry-leading earnings growth & stock performance.
JPM on TVS Motors
OW, TP Rs 3130
Operating results broadly in line
Raise margin expectations for FY25 on management’s indication that all PLI benefits for fiscal year will be accounted for in March quarter
Were already accounting for PLI benefits in FY26-27 est.
UBS on Bosch
Sell, TP Rs 23600
Q3FY25 – All round miss
Revenues at Rs44.7bn grew 6% YoY.
Mobility rev up 2% YoY driven by 9%/24% growth in aftermarket/2W biz while power solutions saw a decline
Non-mobility performance was better
Gross margins improved 70bps YoY.
MS On M&M Fin
Equal-Weight, Target Rs285/Sh
Stage 3 Coverage Cut From 59.5% To 50% Resulted In A Big PAT Vs. Est
However, Slippages Rising & PCR Guided At 51-54%
FY2026-27 Credit Costs (On Average Assets) Could Be Higher Than Guided 1.3-1.5%
Trim FY26 EPS Even With PCR Assumption Of Less Than 45%
HSBC On M&M Fin
Buy Call, Target Rs 320
Q3 Slight Miss On Operating Profit; Net Profit Beat Was Due To Release Of Provisions
While Ops Trends Are Stabilising, Slight Increase QoQ In Gross Stage 3 Assets
Nuvama On M&M Fin
Maintain Hold, TP 280
ECL refresh leads to sharp dip in credit cost; PCR falls to 50%
CEO reiterated the guidance of 1.3–1.5% credit cost and AUM growth in mid-to-high teens for FY26E
ECL reset already baked in, credit cost could remain volatile
Citi On Exide
Buy Call, Target Rs540/sh
Q3 Slightly Above Est, Reflecting Better Gross Margin
Demand In Replacement Auto Segment Has Been Strong In Both 2-w & 4-w Sub-Segments
Demand In Solar Segment Is Also Strong, Aided By Govt Incentives & Various ‘Solarisation’ Programs
However, Demand From Automotive OEMs Remains Muted
In Ind Infra Segment Too, Demand Is Weak Due To Lower Govt Spending
Jefferies on ITC
Maintain Buy, TP 550
Believe Union Budget remains key event for tobacco
Build in 5% effective tax rate hike which would be positive
But 5-9% tax hike would be tough yet manageable
Tobacco taxation was last changes in 2023, resulted in 2% increase in tax per stick
Co should be able to offset this with 3-4% product price hike
Continues to trade 45-50% discount to peers
HSBC On Cipla
Buy Call, Target Rs1,800/Sh
Q3 PAT Beat Est On Better Sales Mix, Lower R&D, And One-Offs
FY25 EBITDA Margin Guidance Increased
Line-Up Of Differentiated Launches Should Support US Sales In Medium Term
Lanreotide Supply Should Normalise In Q1FY26
FDA Approvals For Abraxane And Advair Are Key Catalysts
Nomura On Cipla
Buy Call, Target Rs1,780/sh
Q3 Ahead Of Estimates
Delay In Key US Launches Impacts FY26 Est; Retain FY27 Est
Citi On Colgate
Sell Call, Target Cut To Rs2,600 From Rs3,000/sh
Cons Revenue Grew 5%, Largely In-Line
Domestic Biz Rev Grew 3% YoY Vs Mid-single Digit Growth For HUL’s Oral Care BIZ
Indication That, Increased Trade & Consumer Promotions-Led Realisations Declined
Product Pricing Was Flat YoY
Believe More Promotional Intensity Due To Competitive Activity In A Subdued Demand Environ
Jefferies On Kaynes
Upgrade To Buy Call, Target Price Cut To Rs5,400/Sh From Rs6,950/Sh
Co Has Sharply Corrected By Around 38% In Past 1 Month
Core OPM At 14-15% Is Much Higher Than Peers
9MFY25 Sales/PAT Robust At +49%/+74%YoY
Q3 Orderbook Up +60%YoY To Rs60 Bn
Co Targets Rs35 Bn Sales From OSAT By FY30 Est FY25-27e EPS CAGR At +50% Driven By Strong Orderbook Appears Well-Poised To Benefit From Component Eco-System
Nomura On Kaynes
Buy Call, Target Price At Rs6,146/Sh
EMS Demand Tailwinds In Place
3Q EBITDA Below Est, Healthy Order Wins Drive Growth Visibility
OSAT/PCB Long-term Catalysts
Co targets Rs28-29 Bn In Rev And Maintains 15%+ Margin For FY25E
Stock Currently Trades At 36x FY27F EPS
Nomura On CG Power
Buy Call, Target Price At Rs900/Sh
Robust Ordering; Operationally Mixed Results In 3Q
Estimate Sales/PAT CAGR of 32%/38% Over FY25F-27F Based On Diversified Growth Levers
Miss On EBITDA Primarily Due To Industrial Systems
Further Capex Augmentation Planned Given Healthy Demand Visibility
MS On BHEL
Overweight Call, Target Price At Rs352/Sh
Standalone Revenue Rose 32% YoY, & Was +5% Est
EBITDA Was Rs3 Bn (Our Est Rs2.5 Bn)
Adjusted PAT Was Rs1.25 Bn (Our Est Rs720 m)
Power and Industry segment revenue growth was +32%
Power and Industry segment EBIT margins were +11.2% and 6.2% respectively F3Q Order Inflows Were Rs68.6 Bn (F3Q24 Rs25.7 Bn); 80% Of Orders Were From Ind Segment
CLSA On BHEL
Underperform Call, Target Price Cut To Rs166/Sh
Reiterate "Underperform" As The Key Catalyst For Its Re-Rating
The Inclusion In Global Passive Indices Has Already Passed
Recent Entry Of L&T In Thermal Power Equipment Raises Questions About Its Mkt Dominance
We Have Cut FY25-27CL EPS By 3-8% Due To Weak Margins Modi 3.0-led Revival Of Capex Drove Its Backlog 47% YoY Operationally, BHEL Is Turning Around In 3Q, With Execution Up 38% YoY However, EBITDA
Margin Disappoints (flat QoQ despite top line +10%QoQ) Stock Is Expensive At A 34x FY26CL PE
CLSA on Tata Steel
Upgrade to Hold from Underperformance, TP Rs125 (from Rs135)
Q4-Guidance improving domestic but Europe remains challenging
Stable realizations, lower costs and efficiency gains for India business
Risk and reward balanced post correction
Outperformance will hinge on regional demand uptick and imposition of duties if any
MS on Suzlon
Maintain Overweight, TP Rs71
Q3FY25-Strong beat
Expects large order book (5.5GW) to be executed in Q4FY25 and FY26
Co says wind industry constraints around land acquisitions likely to improve from FY26
Turbine enquiries have been increasing
Co sees capes of Rs 350-400cr on new lines of blade manufacturing in MP and Rajasthan

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