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Money Times Talk

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November 11, 2024

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Although Money Times recommendation have outperformed other media, stock brokers and research houses, the brief recommendations under Money Times Talk (MTT) cannot display ‘BUY’, ‘SELL’ or ‘HOLD’ recommendations. Readers should, therefore, exercise their own judgement and evaluate the future prospects of the stock given its past performance, industry prospects in the backdrop of a growing economy and in consultation with their investment adviser.
Focus will shift from US elections to Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections, followed by Delhi elections and Budget 2025. Stay invested in quality stocks as in 6 to 18 months you may regret selling for small gains. It’s not about being right or wrong, but how much you make when you’re right and how little you lose when you’re wrong.
The Indian market is experiencing a correction, driven by a slowdown in urban consumption, as reported by major corporates in Q2FY25. Jefferies highlights the biggest earnings downgrades since 2020, and Motilal Oswal reports an 8% YoY decline in earnings growth. Bernstein adds that sectors like autos, staples, and utilities are seeing sluggish demand. Despite these challenges, domestic equity mutual funds continue to show strong inflows, with Rs. 5.4 bln in June and Rs. 4.8 bln in September. While the market is down 8% from its highs, this correction is seen as healthy and overdue. The next 2-3 months present a golden opportunity to invest systematically in fundamentally strong companies with solid H1 results and promising H2 prospects.
Rate cuts in India appear inevitable as global economies including India are in a down cycle, reflected in the weak Q2FY25 results. Many companies are struggling with growth, and consumption is slowing, which directly impacts GDP. If this trend continues for two consecutive quarters, it could lead to a recession. With 90% of companies reporting downside numbers, investor confidence is shaken, and focus is on companies showing solid fundamentals. The RBI may announce rate cuts by Dec 2024 or Jan 2025, but the economic recovery remains uncertain, making this a critical time for investors to stay selective.
As per market grapevine, those celebrating Trump's victory may soon regret it.
1. Trump plans to manage the economy before the crisis hits, offering solutions.
2. Elon Musk will push to reduce government expenditure with layoffs expected from the federal government, the largest US employer.
3. This could fuel white racism and Christian nationalism, leading to demands for NRIs' removal from private sector jobs.
4. There is a significant risk of attacks on NRIs and potential implementation of an Exit Tax on money sent abroad.
5. Outsourcing contracts for work in Bharat and China may face action from the Trump administration.
6. Countries exporting to the US could face tariffs and regulations, along with rapid decoupling from China.
7. De-dollarization and a shift to cryptocurrencies will accelerate, eventually leading to the digital dollar, with a reduced purchasing power compared to today's US dollar.
8. De-globalization will hit abruptly, Trump-style.
9. A major cut to social benefits, including retirement, 401k, income security, food stamps, Medicare and defense spending, is likely under Trump's administration.
My success in trading comes from three key principles: quickly changing positions when I'm wrong, never staying wrong for long, and avoiding large errors despite making many smaller ones. – Mark Minervini.
Donald Trump's unexpected weekend tweets will continue to trigger significant market movements on Mondays, making weekend BTST trades increasingly risky until 2028. Traders need to be cautious of these sudden shifts.
The number of demat accounts in India rose from 4.1 cr. in March 2020 to over 17.1 cr. in September 2024. To new investors: success lies in patience, resilience and a long-term view. Every setback is a chance to adapt and refine your strategy.
30-Year Asset Class Returns: Equity: 15.6X, Gold: 7.9X, PPF: 4.5X, Inflation: 3X. Investment return doesn’t equal investor return. Many fail due to impulsive decisions, impatience, and lack of education. The key to success is behavior management—more important than portfolio management.
According to today’s situation in the stock market:
1.Market outlook: The main reasons for the market decline include continuous aggressive selling by foreign investors, who sold Rs. 1,34,203 cr. from 1st Oct to 8th Nov. FII's have reduced 2.5% of their holdings since September, consuming nearly 50% of the liquidity.
2. Corporate earnings have decreased for two consecutive quarters.
3. Maharashtra's election as the business capital state in India adds further uncertainty.
4. The PE of most sectors, except banking, is expensive, and most PSU companies have reported weak results.
5. A large number of new IPOs and SMEs have been filed, reducing liquidity.
6. The RBI has maintained a neutral stance on interest rates and tightened liquidity amid rising inflation.
7. Slowdown in both urban and rural growth.
8. Many stocks remain overpriced.
9. Disruptions in the export-import supply chain.
10.What to do? While a slight decline in share prices is possible, a time correction is expected. The market may remain sideways for the next 2-3 months, making this a golden opportunity to invest systematically in fundamentally strong companies with promising H1 and H2 results.
Stock exchanges will remain closed on Wednesday, 20th Nov 2024, due to the Maharashtra Assembly Elections as notified by the state govt. under the Representation of People’s Act for Vidhan Sabha Elections.
As per astrology view some important turning dates are 11,14,18 & 21st Nov 2024. Wild stock-specific volatility, both up and down, is likely through the end of November.
In 6th January MTTs, S J Logistic given at Rs.190, touched Rs.700 - a superb gain of 268%.
In 13th January MTTs, Efactor given at Rs.162 touched Rs.329 - a gain of 103%.
In 27th January MTTs, Essen Specialty Films given at Rs.219 touched Rs.700 - a superb gain of 220%.
In 10th February MTTs, Univastu given at Rs.134 touched Rs.276 - a gain of 106%.
In 17th February MTTs, Lehar Footwears given at Rs.132 touched Rs.275 during the week - a gain of 108%.
In 2nd March MTTs, Indraprastha Medical given at Rs.185 touched Rs.484 - a gain of 162%.
In 16th March MTTs, Ritco Logistic given at Rs.223 touched Rs.423 - a gain of 90%.
In 6th April MTTs, Jubialnt Pharmova given at Rs.644 touched to Rs.1310 - a gain of 103%*, Kaka Industries given at Rs.179 touched Rs.328 - a gain of 83%.
In 15th June MTTs, E-Pack Durable given at Rs.212 touched Rs.517 - a gain of 144% during the week.
In 13th July MTTs, Deep Ind., given at Rs.318 touched Rs.534 -a gain of 68%, Kitex Garments given at Rs.216 touched Rs.679 - a superb gain of 214%.
In 21st September MTTs, Sharda Crop Care given at Rs.538 touched Rs.832 during the week.
In 26th October MTTs, Amal Ltd given at Rs.377 touched Rs.456, Artefact Projects given at Rs.74 touched Rs.80 & at Rs.76 looks very good buy, Cochin Minerals given at Rs.299 touched Rs.415, gain of 39% International Travel House (ITHL) given at Rs.626 touched Rs.659 & still looks very good buy, Lactose (India) given at Rs.173 touched Rs.187 & still looks very good buy, NSE SME Megatherm given at Rs.324 touched Rs.361, Morepen Lab given at Rs.74.60 touched Rs.87 & still looks very good buy, Multibase India given at Rs.252 touched Rs.303, Parag Milk Foods given at Rs.193 touched Rs.224 & now at Rs.213 looks very good buy , PNB Gilts given at Rs.115 touched Rs.124, NSE SME Rulka given at Rs.363 touched Rs.405, Ipca Lab group company Resonance Specialities given at Rs.106 touched Rs.111 & now at Rs.104 looks very good buy, TIGLOB given at Rs.199 touched Rs.217, Tyche Ind., given at Rs.180 touched Rs.209, Vinyl Chemicals given at Rs.354 touched Rs.376 during the week.
Last week on 1st November MTTs, Artefact Prjects given at Rs.76 touched Rs.79.63 & now at Rs.76 looks very good buy, Bank of Baroda given at Rs.251 touched Rs.266, Cochin Minerals given at Rs.358 touched Rs.415, Heranba Ind., given at Rs.486 touched to Rs.561, ITHL given at Rs.632 touched Rs.655 & still looks very good buy, Lactose India given at Rs.170 touched Rs.181 & still looks very good buy, Morepel Lab given at Rs.80 touched Rs.87 & now at Rs.83 looks very good buy, Multibse India given at Rs.261 touched Rs.303, Parag Milk Food given at Rs.207 touched Rs.224 & now at Rs.213 looks very good buy, PNB given at Rs.98 touched Rs.108, Pennar Ind., given at Rs.195 touched Rs.210 & now at Rs.194 looks very good buy, Ipca Lab group company Resonance Specialities given at Rs.108 touched Rs.111 & now at Rs.104 looks very good buy, Sagarsoft given at Rs.198 touched Rs.204, Sucrosa given at Rs.20 touched Rs.22, Tyche Ind. Given at Rs.183 touched Rs.209, Vinyl Chemicals given at Rs.366 touched Rs.376 during the week in highly negative market sentiments.
As per market grapevine, investors should focus on stocks like Artefact, Anantraj, Camexltd, Fiberweb, HCC, Himtek, ITHL, Lactose, Indtoner, IRB, Josts, Morepenlab, Nocil, Nrbbearing, Paragmilk, Pixtrans, PNB, Penind, Ipca Lab, Resonance, Sagarsoft, Sika, Sucrosa, Vinylindia, Vssl, and Wabag for potential short to medium-term gains. Develop a process to maximize wins and minimize losses then rinse and repeat.

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