Indian Stock Market News | BSE/NSE Sensex Updates | Equity Market Highlights

Money Times Talk

Get the latest Indian stock / share market highlights, BSE/NSE stock news, business research reports & details - updated daily by Money Times.

October 28, 2024

Caution: For private circulation only. Please note that Money Times is for circulation among paid subscribers only. Any attempt to share your access to our website or forwarding your copy to a non-subscriber will disqualify your membership and we will be compelled to stop your supply and forfeit your subscription thereafter without any refund to you.
Although Money Times recommendation have outperformed other media, stock brokers and research houses, the brief recommendations under Money Times Talk (MTT) cannot display ‘BUY’, ‘SELL’ or ‘HOLD’ recommendations. Readers should, therefore, exercise their own judgement and evaluate the future prospects of the stock given its past performance, industry prospects in the backdrop of a growing economy and in consultation with their investment adviser.
As per astrology view some important turning dates are 28, 29 & 31 Oct and 1, 4 & 8 Nov 2024. As of 25th Oct, the market has completed two Saturn cycles indicating a potential short-term bounce in Indian markets.
Here are 10 recommendations for Diwali 2024 to Diwali 2025, emphasizing the importance of mastering key indicators:
1) RSI (Relative Strength Index): Measures price strength; oversold at 30, overbought at 70.
2) MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Tracks crossover between two moving averages; settings of 12, 26 and a 9-period signal line.
3) Ultimate Oscillator: Combines three-time frames for buying/selling pressure; popular settings are 7, 14 and 28 periods.
4) Bollinger Bands: Shows price relative to upper/lower bands; uses a 20-period moving average and standard deviation of 2.
5 ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures trend strength; values above 25 indicate strong trends.
6) Stochastic Oscillator: Compares closing price to its range; common settings include 14 periods for %K and 3 for %D.
7) Parabolic SAR: Identifies trend reversals; commonly configured with a 0.02 step and 0.2 maximum.
8) MFI (Money Flow Index): Similar to RSI but incorporates volume; levels of 20 and 80 indicate oversold and overbought conditions.
9) CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Measures price deviation; default is 20 periods with levels of +100 and -100 for overbought/oversold.
10) Heikin Ashi Candles: Smooth price fluctuations for clearer trends; ideal for trend-following strategies.
As per market veteran, in times of bearish trends and market volatility, it's crucial to remember these principles from market veterans: 1) Don't sell your winners in a weak market. They will recover quickly when the market rebounds. 2) Market Cycles: Selling during weak markets can lock in losses; holding strong assets allows you to benefit when conditions improve. 3) Strong Fundamentals: Quality stocks with solid fundamentals tend to outperform long-term and recover faster after temporary declines. 4) Avoid Emotional Decisions: Panic selling prevents capitalizing on eventual recoveries; patience and a long-term perspective are essential. 5) Rebounding Potential: Historically, markets rebound after downturns and fundamentally strong stocks often recover faster than weaker ones. Stay focused on the bigger picture and don't let short-term weakness dictate your decisions.
As per market veteran, the market offers multiple buying opportunities but rarely allows for repeated booking of huge profits. There are three market trends: 1) Bull market 2) Bear market 3) Silent killer market. The current trend is a silent killer indicating hidden damage; stocks are falling without visible wounds to the portfolio. When markets rise, optimism reigns; when they fall, pessimism prevails. The market behaves like a swing, oscillating between highs and lows. Investors seize discounts on platforms like Flipkart and Amazon, while market experts capitalize on panic in the stock market.
As per market veteran, until 25th October, 97% of Q2 results were average or poor and till 15th November, this trend is likely to continue, contributing to market declines. The significant drop in just 19 trading days is attributed to record FII selling worth Rs. 1,00,149 cr., which may persist until 31st October. Those anticipating a rally should consider what would trigger it amid such disappointing results from major companies. Quality stocks are essential for long-term growth; rallies have occurred based on profit expectations and companies must consistently deliver exceptional earnings to maintain momentum. Currently, panic creates opportunities for long-term investors in quality stocks with strong Q2 results. Market trends will be influenced by earnings realities and growth expectations.
Many investors are curious about how the call auction session will function on 28th October without upper limit bands on holding companies. According to a SEBI circular dated 20th June 2024, it will operate like an IPO opening day, allowing limit orders between 9:00 to 9:40, followed by an order matching session. Unfortunately, this crucial detail has not been adequately covered by major media leaving retailers uncertain about price limits. Investors deserve guidance on platforms to ensure reasonable price: book ratios of 0.6: 0.7.
As per market grapevine, growth stories in PSU's, defence, railways, power and shipping have vanished overnight, with even Rs. 23,000 cr. in monthly SIP inflows failing to prevent corrections of 30-50% in most stocks. BPCL, HPCL, MOIL and NLC reported poor Q2 results. Moral: 1) Price follows earnings and growth seen in the balance sheet not by rosey press releases. 2) The stock market is cyclical—good times are followed by bad, so avoid one-way bets. 3) Valuation bubbles always burst and cannot sustain indefinitely. 4) Learning to sell and book profits is crucial; paper profits don't translate to real gains. 5) The 2024 landscape shows new highs followed by significant tumbles, indicating potential traps for investors. Successful investing requires emotional control, fact-based decisions, continuous learning and risk awareness—traits not everyone possesses.
As per market veteran, just months ago, the focus was on when the market would fall; now, it's about when the bottom will form. A market bottom occurs when fear peaks. Patience is essential—real investors seize quality stocks at reasonable valuations during sell-offs, as panic and opportunity go hand in hand.
As per market veteran, certain individuals should refrain from investing in the stock market: 1) Those who cannot book losses. 2) Those relying solely on tips and updates from others. 3) Those who lose sleep when markets fall. 4) Those seeking quick profits without understanding that there are no shortcuts to doubling money in the stock market. 5) Focus on either slow learning or regular SIPs.
As per market veteran, despite the prevailing negativity on social media and news outlets, India’s biggest bull market from 2003 to 2007 saw a remarkable 214% return on Nifty (~35% CAGR). However, many investors failed to profit because they sold during downturns. The market faced declines of 14%, 27%, 13%, 29% and 15% during those years, which are typical fluctuations. Those who remained invested or bought growth-oriented companies at reasonable valuations during such declines built significant wealth. Patience is key!
As per market grapevine, the Covid correction lasted 45 days,with a 35% decline from Nifty 11,800 to 7,600 and mid- and small caps falling up to 60%. However, it was followed by impressive returns. Currently, after 28 days of correction and an 8.1% drop in Nifty, many stocks are down 10% to 60% from their highs, but the small-cap index is down only 9.5%, highlighting the importance of stock selection. Within any market phase, the ability to identify strong companies is crucial. Quick and significant returns are unlikely in SAMVAT 2081, so investors should remain calm and stay invested in solid stocks. After Q2 results are announced on 15th November, conduct a thorough analysis of your portfolio and consider reshuffling under expert guidance if necessary.
Nifty November Outlook: The stock market remained bearish ahead of Diwali with Sensex down 6000 points and Nifty slipping 2100 points due to FII selling and disappointing earnings. However, the Nifty showed signs of recovery, gaining 107 points from the day's low, suggesting a potential bottom formation. The Market Mood Index indicates Nifty is in an extreme fear zone, historically a good buying opportunity. Key support levels for Nifty are at 24102, 23703, 23366 and 22821, while resistances are at 24408, 24547, 24714, 24996, and 25338. A move above 25338 could signal a bullish trend towards 25656.
Small and mid-cap stocks have crashed due to 1) 97% of results announced until 25th October being flat or poor and experts indicating continued underperformance until mid-November. 2) Substantial FII selling worth Rs. 1,00,149 cr. on October 24 is expected to persist until the end of the month, causing panic among investors. The new SEBI regulation has removed around 1,010 stocks from being used as collateral for loans, limiting leverage for traders and triggering a massive unwinding of positions. Most small and mid-cap stocks have plummeted between 20% and 60% in a matter of days, raising questions about what fundamental changes occurred. With a peak MTF book of Rs. 73,500 cr. and reduced stocks acceptable as collateral from 1,730 to around 700, many investors may struggle to meet margin calls, exacerbating the situation. As high-net-worth individuals often leverage their positions, their inability to use these stocks as collateral has led to widespread losses, significantly impacting the supply and demand dynamics in the small and mid-cap segments.
A circular issued in July 2024 for delisting collateral gradually reduced trading limits from 75-80% to 40%. By November, the loan value on many stocks may fall to zero, causing panic among investors. Stocks previously valued at Rs. 100 with loans of Rs. 75-80 will drop to Rs. 40, leading to uncertainty for around 1,000 shares used as collateral and resulting in unwinding positions.
The regulatory circular prohibiting margin funding in over 1100 stocks include market favourites like Adani Power, Tata Investments, HUDCO, etc. Other stocks where little or no leverage will include Yes Bank, Suzlon, Bharat Dynamics, Paytm, Pilani Investments and Industries (Birla Group), Autumn Investments, Atul Auto, Allcargo, IRB Infrastructure, NBCC, Go Digit, Inox Wind, Jupiter Vagons, KIOCL, Jyoti CNC Automation, JBM Auto, Hetson Agro Product, Tejas Networks together with many other well-known small and mid-cap companies that generated high trading interest created by operators raising funds against pledged shares and buy more to push up the scrip further will cease by 31st October 2024. Operators have been forced to return borrowed funds by liquidating their stocks, which has led to the sharp decline in the market. These will, however, stock after 1st November with this new regulation and panic selling will be contained.
In 6th January MTTs, Cignity given at Rs.1041 touched Rs.1552 during this week in a highly negative market.
In 13th January MTTs, Anantraj given Efactor given at Rs.162 touched Rs.300 - a gain of 85% in highly negative market sentiments.
In 27th January MTTs, Essen Specialty Films given at Rs.219 touched Rs.687 - a superb gain of 214%.
In 10th February MTTs, Univastu given at Rs.134 touched Rs.276 - a gain of 106%.
In 17th February MTTs, Lehar Footwears given at Rs.132 touched Rs.275 during the week - a gain of 108%.
In 16th March MTTs, Ritco Logistic given at Rs.223 touched Rs.409 - a gain of 83%.
In 6th April Kaka Industries given at Rs.179 touched Rs.328 - a gain of 83% during the week.
In 18th May MTTs, Va Tech Wabag given at Rs.981 touched Rs.1906 - a gain of 94% during the week.
In 15th June MTTs, EPack Durable given at Rs.212 touched Rs.471 - a gain of 122% during the week.
In 17th August MTTs, Pennar Ind., given at Rs.168 touched Rs.215 - a gain of 28%, Univastu given at Rs.228 touched Rs.276 during the week.
In 12th October MTTs, BF Utilities at Rs.1064 was suggested to exit. It declined to Rs.871 and still looks overpriced.
Last week in 19th October MTTs Roopa Industries given at Rs.88 touched Rs.115 in highly negative market sentiments
Nifty Midcap and Small Cap indices grew over 50% last year but now witness daily fall of 2-3%, which may cumulatively amount to 20-30% correction in the current negative market. Investors must focus on performers like Amal, Artefact Projects, Cochin Minerals Rutile, Cybertech Systems, International Travel House (ITHL), Lactose (India), NSE SME Magatherm, Morepen Lab, Multibase India, Parag Milk Foods, PNB Gilts, NSE SME Rulka, Resonance Specialities, Sagarsoft, Somiconvey, TIGOB, Tyche and Vinyl Chemicals (India) for potential gains in the short to medium term.

First

Last